Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Randwick Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

Race 1

Group 1 racing at Randwick on Saturday will be on soft ground, rating was a (7) on Thursday morning with 0-4mm forecast Friday & a sunny Saturday, upgrade definitely on the cards. Going with (16) ISAWYOU in this opening race, loved the way he charged through a late gap to score at Kembla when looking forlorn hope. Prior to that he hit the line well at Canterbury, will need luck getting through in the straight however should it come… look out! (8) FERINZO resumes, very lightly raced 5yo with a good record, trials suggest he’s ready, market? (1) CLEAR PROOF loves the give in the ground & has hit form, right at his peak now.

Numbers: 16 – 8 – 1 – 2

Suggested Bet: ISWAYOU EACH-WAY.

Race 2

This week’s Highway is a complete raffle; I’d expect close to $5 the field.  I’m going to default to (18) LOVECATS however with very little confidence. I do have the right yard in my corner though with Matt Dunn’s record in these races being second to none & the strong closing effort two back was good, not so much the latest which I cannot find an excuse for. Stablemate (5) MRS GOLDBERG resumes with the benefit of a couple of trials whilst I like the (14) KAKODA form lines however not so much the car park draw.

Numbers: 18 – 5 – 14 – 3

Suggested Bet: Go as wide as you can with exotics!

Race 3

(2) I PARK & (3) LE TROISIR fought out the finish here a fortnight back with the former proving a little too strong for the Waller trained runner over the concluding stages. The margin was just under half a length; the weight turnaround is 1.5kg in (3) LE TROISIR’s favour today however I’m not convinced that’s enough to reverse the result. (2) I PARK wanted to lay in down the straight doing a bit wrong yet was still able to outstay his rival who looked to have his chance. (6) FOIRE DE TRONE looks the other main hope coming off a last start win down south.

Numbers: 2 – 3 – 6 – 10

Suggested Bet: I PARK TO WIN.

Race 4

(12) AVISTA scraped home here last start making it three straight wins this prep & 4 from 5 overall. I wouldn’t have jumped into a short price here however that’s not the case in opening markets & I do like the rise to a mile, he’s got a lot more upside than anything else going around in this race. (1) KING OF THE SEA gets J. Mac to steer & although yet to place from 2 attempts have a look at his fresh run last prep when close-up in a blanket finish at Caulfield, he’s going to be very strong late. (14) BARKING MAD is a model of consistency & should be included in all exotics.

Numbers: 12 – 1 – 14 – 2

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

Race 5

Going with some value here putting (7) MATUSALEM on top. Big odds first up ($201) when not far away before running home well here in the Cup Prelude a fortnight back over 1800m. The step up in distance is ideal, he’ll again carry a light weight & can only strip fitter. No doubt (5) BONIFACE the toughest to beat, chased home Tazima twice before well fancied here last start when most unlucky, he just couldn’t get clear at a vital stage & arguably should have won. (8) BELVEDERE BOYS has become very hard to catch however on his best form rates at least a place chance, possibly better.

Numbers: 7 – 5 – 8 – 2

Suggested Bet: MATUSALEM EACH-WAY.

Race 6

First of our feature races this afternoon is the Group 3 Toy Show for the fillies & mares. (1) SAVVY HALLIE & (2) APOCALYPTIC are the class runners in the race & no surprise to see them sitting on top of the early markets. Confident one of the pair will win however I’m a little surprised at the gap between them in those markets with (2) APOCALYPTIC over a dollar shorter. Both have impressed at their respective lead-up trials & (1) SAVVY HALLIE has prevailed at 2 of their 3 clashes to date. Having said all of that I’m leaning to (2) APOCALYPTIC, just liked her trial a little more. (6) PRIMA BELLA is flying & holds the fitness edge, can she cause a mini upset?

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 6 – 9

Suggested Bet: Box up top 3 selections in exotics.

Race 7

Next up is the Group 2 Silver Shadow for the 3yo fillies & this is a very interesting & competitive looking race. I’m a big wrap for (1) CHERRY BOMSHELL who resumes here having had only the one prep winning at 3 of her 4 starts & fair to say she should have finished closer the other (held-up). Drawn favourably I like what she’s boing doing at her lead-up trials & at the odds on offer looks a good each-way bet. (5) BANKOK HOTTIE went around in a Midway first up & put in a terrific performance sitting wide throughout, her 2yo form was very good, look for her to be running home strongly. (2) PEMBREY & (3) AGRARIAN GIRL right in the hunt.

Numbers: 1 – 5 – 2 – 11

Suggested Bet: CHERRY BOMSHELL EACH-WAY.

Race 8

First thoughts when looking at the line up for this Group 3 dash centred around (8) CAMPIONE D’ITALIA taking on the older sprinters over 1200m with his get back/run on pattern The more I look at the race though the more I warm to him, he certainly has the upside whereas his rivals have mostly plateaued, there’s very little improvement to come & whilst fresh he is capable of a sharp 1200m. So I’ve gone from almost potting him to making him of the better bets of the day! (7) MATCHA LATTE resumes with a very good fresh record, trialled well, market? (1) MIDNIGHT IN TOKYO comes down from Queensland, she’s mixed her form a little this prep however give in the ground is what she’s after & likely gets that today.

Numbers: 8 – 7 – 1 – 9

Suggested Bet: CAMPIONE D’ITALIA TO WIN.

Race 9

First Group 1 of the season is the Winx Stakes & what a race! Will it be (8) AUTUMN GLOW & (14) SHEZA ALIBI fighting it out as expected or will we see an upset, there are so many stars going around in this race it’s certainly not out of the question. I will stick with the mares though & to be honest I could go either way, both are absolute superstars & just to see them clash so early in the carnival is a huge buzz. (8) AUTUMN GLOW settles closer whilst (14) SHEZA ALIBI will get back & gate 1 does her no favours, traffic may be an issue, that just adds another layer of intrigue to the race. (9) AELIANA & (10) FANGIRL the blowouts.

Numbers: 8 – 14 – 9 – 10

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

Race 10

We wind up the day with a competitive looking 1200m restricted affair where I’m siding with last start winner (13) ERNAUX who looks to have really hit her straps now. She dashed clear to win here last start after a solid placing the run prior, everything sets up well from the soft draw & again she gets in nicely at the weights. (1) COLUMBIA BLUE draws awkwardly & may be looking for further than 1200m, still must include though as he’s racing so well. (11) HIDRIX is a big watch fresh, trials have been very soft, asked for absolutely nothing in both & J. Mac steers.

Numbers: 13 – 1 – 11 – 7

Suggested Bet: ERNAUX EACH-WAY.

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