Dogs

Harry Buchanan’s Bold Trease and Melbourne Cup Preview

Posted on | Posted by Harry Buchanan

This Saturday night, we have the running of the Group 1 Melbourne Cup and Group 1 Bold Trease at Sandown Park. We go through both fields to give our runner-by-runner preview of the two feature races.

THE BOLD TREASE FINAL (GROUP 1)

Race 8

No. 1 Stagger Out Lee 

Has snuck right under the radar here and boxed to shake the life out of this. Was tremendous in her heat when she settled back off an outside draw only to unleash a sustained run home to charge over her rivals and race away. Much better draw here and won’t find herself as far back. With the front runners engaged here, she simply smokes the pipe and cuts loose through the middle to be an each way bird. Huge show to hit the podium and on top selection. 

No. 2 Untapped

Great little campaigner who has taken some time to regain her very best form and still yet to be there. A gifted front runner who has good box manners and early speed, she will spear out and look to drive forward to take over early. This will represent her best chance to win but her last section is still a slight concern. A Group 1 winner who will give her backers a huge sight if she holds the arm first turn. 

No. 3 Korda

Won a mix up heat by obtaining the fly at the first turn when some of the big dangers were put out of play and he avoided the trouble to slip away and win easily. Is a level below the very best stayers but can show pace in his races and will try and punch up early. Would need a similar set of circumstances to his heat to prevail here and also needs to find a few tenths on the clock. Prefer to watch.

No. 4 Lakeview Patsy

Has found her calling as a front running stayer but this may have come around a little too soon for her. Shows dazzling pace from the boxes and runs along where her last section still needs improving for this type of race. Led by a couple last week but wilted 9L behind the winner when left standing in the run home. Her best chance is similar to the 3 where she would need the arm and trouble behind. Watch for later. 

No. 5 Cawbourne Magic

Sublime effort in his heat after backing up from a barnstorming Dapto win two nights earlier. A gun stayer who can lead or come from back and has monster will to win and runs through whatever he has to if it means getting to where he wants to be. Will improve again on a super 41.56 and that spells danger for the opposition. Huge threat with any luck at all. 

No. 6 Golden Quest

Another who will need to break the line early and get away with trouble behind. Was part of the mix up heat and was able to progress with luck. The last bit has always tested this dog when he has stepped up to the 700 and will again find it hard against this field. Pass. 

No. 7 Emani Bale

Great little performer who is much more lethal over 600-650m but can surprise here if she runs into this through the middle stages. Her run usually peaks at the 600m boxes but she doesn’t stop trying and can hit the frame if some of these leaders get the stitch late. Box a concern so will be a price but can certainly be included in exotics. 

No. 8 Moraine Suzie

The current favourite and coming off a superb heat win when she put her opposition away easily in fast time. The move to Box 8 is the issue here and she is a real risk of being posted out wide first turn and caught outside dogs who want off. She still has the ability to recover and run into this but it will all come down to where she lands through the first turn. Should hit the podium and wins if she somehow makes it over early. Not sure she can and will work around her at the current quote. 

No. 9 Mepunga Ruby

Incredibly short for a dog who looks a shadow of her former gun self. Is not quite the brilliant front running bitch that took all before her 8-10 months ago and while she will give a sight if she starts, she can’t be backed at the odds. 

No. 10 Tinker Fran

No. Not a hope at all. 

Summary and Selections

The 1 Stagger Out Lee gets the nod because she can stay, has the box and the sections to deliver the victory. EW all day with any luck at all. The 5 Cawbourne Magic a huge danger if he lands right there and the 8 Moraine Suzie is in a similar boat and can’t be dismissed. 6 Emani Bale to round out the top 4.

Selections: 1-5-8-7

THE MELBOURNE CUP FINAL (GROUP 1)

Race 10

No. 1 Plaintiff

The current favourite for the cup and boxed to give his supporters an almighty sight. Won his heat in style but the fact the both Kysiah and more notably, Lovaz Bale were taking some ground off him, has to be a concern. Will most likely lead here and has a dazzling middle section where he puts his opposition on the chase. However there are some big engines in this and while he will look the winner at some stage, he will also need to look in the rear vision mirror. At the price he is a risk and would need everything to go right behind him. Can win but looking elsewhere. 

No. 2 Titan Blazer

Was given more space than the Grand Canyon last week in the run to the first turn in his heat which allowed him to land behind a weak front runner. The strong dogs were held up and Amron Boy should have won the race but this bloke pulled out plenty to advance. Form was sketchy prior to that and while he is a fast dog, he would need a lot to go right to win the cup as he doesn’t run blistering time these days. A tradesmen type of dog who will try the whole trip and won’t lay down. 

No. 3 Vice Grip

What more can be said about the WA bully boy. Plenty of dogs have come and gone by the wayside as they have tried to take this bloke down but he has a ridiculous sense of knowing when it’s game day and delivers every time. Will put himself in a striking spot and any dog that tries to push him out of the way will be met with effortless brutality from this rock. If ever there was dog you would go to the trenches with, it’s this bloke. He will stop trying to win when the collar and lead goes back on in the pen. Has the box, the map and will be in the finish if he comes away cleanly. If he is the first on the scene behind Plaintiff, then the cup is half way to WA. Massive chance.

No. 4 Yachi Bale

I have made no secret about my thoughts on this dog. He is the next group 1 star in the making and that’s a fact!! Has one of the most explosive gear changes you will see up the back and unleashes a turn of foot that few can hold off. Can get to the middle of the track but it’s where he is most comfortable and his box draw is not bad in the slightest. Has been beginning better lately and can move forward following the 3 up here. If he is out, clear and running up the back and within a few lengths of the leaders, he will descend like a thunderstorm and give this one almighty shake. For those reasons and more, he goes on top in this years cup. Way over the odds still and only trouble can put him out of this finish. 

No. 5 Fernando Mick

Grand campaigner from a kennel that knows exactly how to win Melbourne Cups. Has regained his best form lately and while he won one of the easier heats and off box 1, he did it in style and ran good time in harsh conditions. Begins well and holds a middle track line and a repeat of his 5.03 will see him pushing for a forward spot early. Needs to lead to win this and he can but getting across Plaintiff may be a bridge too far. Will give his all and a sight if he does find the top early. Don’t complete ignore him but not for us this year. 

No. 6 Zippy Tesla

The fact that this bloke is the $17 rank outsider shows the depth in this years cup. His lack of early speed will be the first problem as will the poor draw, however the one thing this bloke has going for him is he can win from anywhere and is very very strong. His best chance would be to slide over to the fence early behind the speed and play for an inside run at the first turn. If he’s close up the back, he’s in the finish. If he find the front up the back, or anywhere at all, this would be over. Needs a lot to happen for this to go his way though. Will charge into the first 4 and can hit the podium with luck. 

No. 7 El Dorado

How this dog is now double figures is a mystery. Trainer is astute as they come and he will have this bloke primed and ready. He’s a weapon with a superb record, especially here at Sandown. Will come out running off the 7 and go very fast to the first turn and if he leads or lands close, it’s game on. Just needs to navigate the 5 early but he can and with his ability to run time off the arm, he is a huge podium threat here and can win this race. Can muster up behind Plaintiff and take over at some stage which will see him with one paw on the cup. Big chance. 

No. 8 Paddy Wants Pats 

Tremendous greyhound who landed a stick of good wagers last week in his heat when leading throughout off Box 2. The move to 8 is the concern here and while he can step and show pace, he would need to spear out with a best ever first section to get around some speed influences in the race. Can not be dismissed as he is the ultimate competitor who just keeps coming. Prepared to risk off the draw but not doing it lightly. He can go well. 

No. 9 Zara’s Ivan

Monstered by Yachi Bale in his heat and while he is a good dog, he is level below these and will struggle if he gains a start off any box. 

No. 10 Amron Boy

Unlikely to gain a start but if he fluked one, it would be a matter of which box he got that would determine his chances. A fast weapon who could win this off the right draw and was one bound away from getting a start last week. Will come into calculations if he gains the run. He probably won’t however. 

Summary and Selections

Wonderful edition of the cup and race where there are several hopes, if not all having a chance. The 4 Yachi Bale gets the nod. He has a sense of timing about him and is a special animal. Only needs a look and can win or at least place at big odds. The 7 El Dorado been some wheat forgotten and can stun here. Will go fast and look the winner at some stage, as will the dog of steel, the 3 Vice Grip. Just doesn’t know how to give up and will give his all to try and win this. The 6 Zippy Tesla rounds out the top 4 as he will be hitting the line from the back and one of few who can. Will get past some of these and is very strong so can’t be ignored entirely. Great race, can’t wait. 

Selections: 4-7-3-6




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