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Digby’s Round 12 AFL Preview

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

Essendon v Hawthorn

Friday, Etihad Stadium 5.50pm

Often the Friday night game sets the tone for the rest of the weekend. Fingers crossed that is not the case on this occasion. Six days after turning in a horrid display against the previously winless Fremantle in Perth, the Bombers face up to Hawthorn, premiers of the past three seasons who are yet to hit top gear but still boast an enviable 8-3 record. Barring a major stumble, the Hawks will be able to address their modest percentage in their pursuit of an all-important top-four spot.

Hawthorn were extended by Melbourne last Saturday, but still had too many contributors when it mattered most. The highlight reel of Cyril Rioli is one of the best in the land and it’s not all marks and goals and slick sidesteps. His desire to be an elite defensive presence remains high and as such, helps create countless scoring opportunities for his teammates. Ditto his small forward partner Paul Puopolo. Their influence was telling against Melbourne as the game progressed and they will have a major say in the outcome here given the Bombers are likely to park a lot of bodies in and around the football.

Essendon’s inability to kick big totals has been an issue all year and it shapes as a concern against the Hawks, who have the capacity to slice apart their opposition by foot and score heavily. David Zaharakis was taken out of the game by Fremantle’s Michael Barlow and needs to rebound strongly to lead the Bombers’ midfield against the likes of Jordan Lewis, Liam Shiels, Shaun Burgoyne, Isaac Smith and Bradley Hill. Even in the absence of suspended ruckman Jonathon Ceglar as Ben McEvoy’s back-up, Hawthorn have too much class all over the ground.

VERDICT: Hawthorn by 56 points.

1st goal scorer: Paul Puopolo

Port Adelaide v Western Bulldogs

Saturday, Adelaide Oval 11.40am

Port Adelaide couldn’t have been more impressive in the past fortnight. They took care of Melbourne in Alice Springs and then conceded the game’s first two goals before mauling Collingwood at the MCG last Sunday. Both performances bore many hallmarks of a finals-bound side. Importantly for Ken Hinkley’s men, they are not only impacting the scoreboard like we know they can, but defending very stoutly. The twin victories have them in top-eight contention and seemingly ideally placed for this daunting assignment.

The Western Bulldogs are not the free-flowing outfit we enjoyed watching in 2015, but their defensive slant and a gun young midfield doesn’t make them any less appealing. They are clearly in the top-four mix and were very gallant in holding off West Coast at Etihad Stadium. The late withdrawal of Easton Wood (hamstring) didn’t help their cause, but the influence of the on-ball division led by Marcus Bontempelli, Lachie Hunter, Tom Liberatore, Jack Macrae and Mitch Wallis was telling. Their appetite for contested ball is huge and Luke Beveridge will look to them to again set the tone opposed to Robbie Gray, Ollie Wines, Brad Ebert, Travis Boak and Jared Polec.

The Power’s defence, despite the unavailability of Jack Hombsch, Tom Jonas and Alipate Carlile, held its own against Collingwood and will need to do so again opposed to Jake Stringer, Jack Redpath and Tory Dickson. If we are to be super critical, the Bulldogs are going to need to find a few more goals a game to be winning big finals. As for Port, they would gladly take a finals berth now if offered one. For them to secure one on merit, Charlie Dixon, Chad Wingard, Aaron Young and Jake Neade must remain in form. It’s tempting to tip Port at home, but the Bulldogs rarely have an off day.

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs by 18 points.

1st goal scorer: Jake Stringer

Brisbane v Fremantle

Saturday, Gabba 2.35pm

Having had to wait 10 weeks for their first win, Fremantle should double their tally for 2016 with further success against Brisbane. The Dockers looked assured from the outset against Essendon, with their ball movement crisp and forward line cohesive. It was the type of performance the Dockers looked like producing on a regular basis throughout the home-and-away campaign after a solid NAB Challenge. The same doesn’t apply to Brisbane. Not in round one, nor round 11.

The Lions are rudderless at present, a combination of injuries, confidence, skill level and work rate cruelling any chance of Justin Leppitsch’s side climbing the ladder. Their inability to sustain an effort against Carlton last weekend ensured that match was all but over at quarter time. Granted, Brisbane are a better side at home, but the Dockers have been competitive on the road at stages this year and the return of David Mundy from a calf strain against Essendon helped significantly.

The Dockers’ forward line looked potent against the Bombers, with Matthew Pavlich, Chris Mayne, Michael Walters, Hayden Ballantyne and Matt Taberner proving a handful. Ross Lyon struck pay-dirt with his decision to use Michael Barlow in a run-with role against David Zaharakis. Expect Barlow to have another assignment. Though prolific Lions skipper Tom Rockliff, fresh off a 48-possession display, looms as a logical opponent, don’t be surprised if the experienced Docker goes to Daniel Rich.

VERDICT: Fremantle by 21 points.

1st goal scorer: Michael Walters

Geelong v North Melbourne

Saturday, Etihad Stadium 5.25pm

Rarely does a team sitting on top of the ladder at the halfway mark of the season with just one loss to its name, go up as an outsider. But that is exactly what transpired on Monday when markets were released for this blockbuster between the 10-1 North Melbourne and Geelong (8-3). However, the divide between the sides narrowed significantly later that day when it was revealed Cats spearhead Tom Hawkins had received a one-week suspension for striking in the fighting win over Greater Western Sydney.

The bookmakers had the Kangaroos easy in their market for round nine and were proven correct when Sydney comfortably took care of them. How do Geelong compare to Sydney, especially given this match is at Etihad Stadium and not the SCG? Time will tell. But we what we do know for sure is the desire of North to stand their ground in the midfield battle. Jack Ziebell, Ben Cunnington, Andrew Swallow and Daniel Wells did exactly that against Richmond and their side cruised to a massive win. Geelong are very reliant on Patrick Dangerfield and Joel Selwood and for good reason. Selwood’s last term against the Giants was enormous.

Todd Goldstein is expected to play after missing last week with a knee injury and his tussle with Zac Smith, buoyed by a dominant performance opposed to Shane Mumford, is of massive importance. The Kangaroos are elite at the centre clearances and close down space as well as any outfit in the competition. The Cats showed great mettle to see off GWS and will lean on their experienced customers, notably defenders Harry Taylor, Lachie Henderson, Tom Lonergan and Corey Enright, to stand up against the confident Kangaroos. In a match where very little separates the two sides, the absence of Hawkins could prove the difference.

VERDICT: North Melbourne by 4 points.

1st goal scorer: Jarrad Waite

West Coast v Adelaide

Saturday, Domain Stadium 5.40pm

Of their four losses on the road this season, West Coast were entitled to be comfortable enough with their eight-point defeat at the hands of the Western Bulldogs. Not satisfied. Comfortable. Despite many players being below their best, the Eagles hung around long enough to have a chance to pinch an unlikely win against a highly touted opponent at its preferred venue. Because they didn’t, they are left with work to do to not only nail down a spot in the finals, but push up the ladder and into the top four.

That the Eagles return home for this match with a dangerous Adelaide should provide some comfort. However, the Crows have proven themselves very capable, both at home and interstate this season, and have the added benefit of Don Pyke being at the helm. Adam Simpson’s assistant for two seasons, Pyke knows the ins and outs of West Coast and will stress to his charges the importance of nullifying Nic Naitanui’s union with his midfielders. Matt Priddis was heroic against the Bulldogs, but lacked support.

The Crows have a deep midfield and will be boosted by the return of Scott Thompson, one of the club’s more decorated players. He could well lock horns with Priddis in what promises to be an enthralling tussle at the clearances. Both West Coast and Adelaide will fancy their chances of kicking a winning total if the midfield supply is slick, placing enormous emphasis on Naitanui’s individual battle with Sam Jacobs, who was very good against St Kilda. This is the first time in 2016 that West Coast will host a finals contender, but their overall record in Perth is impossible to ignore.

VERDICT: West Coast by 13 points.

1st goal scorer: Josh Kennedy

St Kilda v Carlton

Sunday, Etihad Stadium 11.10am

Twelve months after the Western Bulldogs rose from the ashes in a former Hawthorn assistant coach’s first year at the helm, the same is taking place at Carlton. And so rapid has the Blues’ emergence been this season for rookie mentor Brendon Bolton, they have soared past St Kilda and will start this clash as deserved favourites, well aware that another win will improve them to 7-5.

It is a remarkable chain of events and if the past eight or so days are any guide, the football gods are clearly smiling on Carlton. The Saints are coming off a mauling from Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, a result that was compounded by injuries to Hugh Goddard (Achilles), Paddy McCartin (concussion), Nick Riewoldt (knee) and Sean Dempster (knee) that rules them out of this match. Their setbacks came after veteran defender Sam Fishers strained a hamstring at training last week. He will again miss this match. When Fisher is out of the St Kilda back line, Alan Richardson’s team is extremely vulnerable.

The Blues are confident ruckman Matthew Kreuzer will play after showing signs of concussion against Brisbane. His availability is crucial to Carlton, who are getting the job done courtesy of their discipline and structure. Bryce Gibbs is continuing to operate at a high standard, as is Patrick Cripps, Kade Simpson, Ed Curnow and Sam Kerridge. Simpson is finding a lot of football across half-back and rarely makes bad decisions. It wouldn’t shock if Richardson assigned someone to stifle him and deny the Blues’ important rebound. Even if he does and the tactic is successful, it still might not be enough.

VERDICT: Carlton by 26 points.

1st goal scorer: Levi Casboult

Richmond v Gold Coast

Sunday, MCG 1.20pm

Rodney Eade has been around the coaching caper for more than two decades, but it wouldn’t be a total surprise if it was revealed he sounded out Brad Scott this week. The Kangaroos coach enjoys stunning success against Richmond, and even though he was absent from last Friday night’s 70-point flogging of the Tigers in Hobart because of illness, his thumbprints were all over the win. Richmond were assaulted at the coalface and their desire to chip the ball around half-back until an option presented further afield, was denied.

The Suns would dearly love to implement something similar here to avoid a ninth consecutive defeat, but having the personnel to carry out such a plan is another matter. Richmond’s midfield of Trent Cotchin, Dustin Martin, Shaun Grigg, Anthony Miles, Brett Deledio and Brandon Ellis need to respond. If they are able to rediscover their best form, they have the depth of talent that might well and truly stretch Gary Ablett, Matt Rosa, Michael Rischitelli, Dion Prestia and Jesse Lonergan.

The Suns were OK against Sydney last weekend in atrocious conditions. Some will argue that the weather helped keep them in the contest for longer than they would have been had the game been played on top of the ground. That might be the case, but they competed and asked plenty of the Swans. The next challenge is to ask plenty of the Richmond back line. In Tom Lynch, they have an elite young power forward, but he is being denied the opportunities to kick bags. He will find it tough opposed to Alex Rance in a match the Tigers must simply win if their flickering finals flame is to remain alive.

VERDICT: Richmond by 34 points.

1st goal scorer: Jack Riewoldt

GWS v Sydney

Sunday, Spotless Stadium 2.40pm

It wasn’t that long ago that a match between Sydney and Greater Western Sydney represented an opportunity for the Swans to fill their boots. Not any more. The Giants might have fallen to sixth on the ladder after back-to-back road losses to Adelaide and Geelong, but they certainly haven’t lost any admirers. They loom as the real deal and would dearly love to land a weighty blow on the Swans’ chin to revive their top-four tilt and prove to the rest of the competition they are well and truly worthy.

One of the best components of this game, is that it is being played at the Giants’ home venue — Spotless Stadium. For the growth of the game, to have a meaningful derby in western Sydney is a dream come true for the AFL. And those on hand will see a midfield battle for the ages — Sydney superstars Luke Parker, Josh Kennedy, Dan Hannebery, Kieren Jack and Tom Mitchell butting heads with Callan Ward, Josh Kelly, Dylan Shiel, Stephen Conglio, Lachie Whitfield and Tom Scully. And it’s fair to assume respective coaches John Longmire and Leon Cameron will feel at ease with their runners working underneath Kurt Tippett and Shane Mumford.

The presence of Lance Franklin at one end and Jeremy Cameron at the other only adds to the importance of the midfield battle. The Swans have made a habit of beating up opposition sides in and around the contests, but the Giants are the No.1 clearance side in the competition and play an uncompromising brand of football. There is still a question mark surrounding whether GWS can be tough enough for long enough against elite sides and Sydney are exactly that. But the fact this game is at their home ground, gives the Giants a slight edge.

VERDICT: GWS by 2 points.

1st goal scorer: Rory Lobb

Melbourne v Collingwood

Monday, MCG 1.20pm

In the corresponding match last season in this traditional Queen’s Birthday encounter, Travis Cloke kicked seven goals to be best afield in Collingwood’s 25-point victory. In five matches this season, the one-time contested marking beast has kicked five goals. His decline has mirrored that of Collingwood, who were dreadful against Port Adelaide last Sunday and will again be spectators when finals roll around in September.

The Demons gained some revenge on the Magpies in the second meeting of 2015 and were successful also when the two teams crossed paths earlier this season. If the Magpies are to stop Melbourne notching a third successive win, they will have to do so without  Cloke, who was dropped. The cold hard facts for Nathan Buckley however, is Cloke’s form isn’t his biggest concern — that lies with his side’s defensive habits.

Port were able to get out the back like they did a week earlier against Melbourne and the Demons, who are moving the ball with far more speed and precision than previous years, will fancy their chances of doing the same. Jack Watts had a big day out against the Magpies earlier this year and if the conditions and delivery are suitable, it wouldn’t be a massive shock if Jesse Hogan also stood tall on the big stage. Melbourne can still be hit and miss, but their effort against Hawthorn was light years ahead of what Collingwood dished up just over 24 hours later.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 29 points.

1st goal scorer: Jesse Hogan

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