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Digby’s AFL Round 23 Preview

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

Friday, 25 August

Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs, Etihad Stadium 5.50pm

It will be hard to find a dry eye after the siren sounds to end this match. Hawthorn’s revered leader, future AFL Hall of Famer Luke Hodge, makes his final appearance and Western Bulldogs captain Bob Murphy, and quite possibly Matthew Boyd, are also in the same boat if the premiers come up short or even win, depending on other results.

The Hawks were unable to match the emotion and poise of Carlton last weekend, with James Sicily in the spotlight as he gave away a string of free kicks after being targeted by the Blues. Coach Alastair Clarkson will implore his players to honour Hodge in the right manner, just as Luke Beveridge will seek one last special display from his charges to ensure Murphy and Boyd have fond memories of their last appearance.

The issue for the Bulldogs though is their patchy form and lack of efficiency forward of centre. Jake Stringer’s hamstring injury early in the match against Port Adelaide didn’t help, while the overall form of many of his teammates for the bulk of the season has been patchy. Conversely, Hawthorn have improved as the season has gone on and if the past three months is any guide, they are likely to emerge triumphant.

VERDICT: Hawthorn by 11 points

Saturday, 26 August

Collingwood v Melbourne, MCG 11.45am

Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley could well enter this match not knowing if he will have a job next season. And regardless of what occurs, it is unlikely to have any bearing on his immediate fate. What is crystal clear however, is unless the Magpies start to play a more adventurous brand of football, starting in this match, Buckley’s coaching tenure will never scale great heights.

Melbourne weren’t all that convincing against Brisbane last Sunday, but did what they had to do, with the return of Jesse Hogan from a broken collarbone particularly encouraging. Hogan has endured so much throughout 2017 and shapes as a wild-card for the Demons given how little football he has played. A genuine matchwinner, the spearhead is fresh and could well send Melbourne into September feeling very good about themselves.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 30 points

Brisbane v North Melbourne, Gabba 12.10pm

Both teams are adamant they do not want to finish last. Call me a cynic, but Brisbane’s pledge appears far more legitimate than the one put forward by North Melbourne, who rallied from a 0-5 start to the season to win a handful of matches before sliding back into mediocrity.

The Lions have taken great strides under first-year coach Chris Fagan in the second half of the season and their effort to challenge Melbourne at the MCG last Sunday was full of merit. It is easy to forget how good a player captain Dayne Beams is and leader he has developing into. The Kangaroos were obliterated by St Kilda after quarter-time last weekend and given how poorly they defend, coupled with Brisbane’s slick ball movement, a lot of goals could be in the offing.

VERDICT: Brisbane by 23 points

Sydney v Carlton, SCG 2.35pm

Sydney slumped to the foot of the table when they lost to Carlton in round six this season. Their remarkable resurgence will be complete at the end of this match as they become the first side in VFL-AFL history to start 0-6 and qualify for the finals. Sadly for the Blues, the Swans will not only be desperate to avenge their defeat from earlier in the year, but finish as high as possible given a top-four berth is not out of play.

The Blues were committed and richly deserved their win over Hawthorn, but the Swans at the SCG is another level again. Fremantle were embarrassed at the saucer-shaped venue only a fortnight ago and unless Brendon Bolton’s men can hold their ground early against one of the best starting sides in the competition, this has the potential to get nasty. Can Lance Franklin kick a bag to stake a claim for the Coleman Medal?

VERDICT: Sydney by 50 points

Geelong v GWS, Simonds Stadium 5.25pm

It is quite easy to mount an argument that last Friday night’s match between Sydney and Adelaide was the best we have seen during the home-and-away season. Don’t be surprised if this contest matches it, possibly even surpasses it. Having fought out a draw when they met earlier this year at Spotless Stadium, the stakes couldn’t be any higher as both sides jockey for a top-two spot to give themselves the best chance to win a premiership.

Geelong will be boosted by the return from suspension of full-forward Tom Hawkins, but the level of supply he receives will be critical. The Giants’ midfield has oodles of talent. The likes of Josh Kelly, Dylan Shiel, Callan Ward, Tom Scully, Lachie Whitfield and Stephen Coniglio are capable of dominating at the feet of Shane Mumford against a Cats on-ball division that is still without captain Joel Selwood (ankle).

GWS have every right to feel their attack of key-forward pairing Jeremy Cameron and Jonathon Patton, coupled with the assistance of Toby Greene and Brett Deledio, has the capacity to fully stretch the hosts’ defence. Chris Scott has used Harry Taylor in attack throughout the course of the season, but he could well be required to be stationed in the back line here. Geelong are a tough nut to crack at Simonds Stadium, but if there is one side to bring them down, it is GWS.

VERDICT: GWS by 19 points

Port Adelaide v Gold Coast, Adelaide Oval 5.40pm

Under threat from Sydney to retain, in all likelihood, their hold on fifth spot at the end of the home-and-away season, Port Adelaide have been gifted an opportunity to boost their percentage against a Gold Coast side that is limping to the finish line. And the Power best take it because as sure as night follows day, the Swans will be hellbent on doing a number on Carlton earlier in the day.

The Power rallied, albeit with the aid of the breeze, in the last term to get over the top of the Western Bulldogs. Their key players stood up to once again to prove that when the majority of Ken Hinkley’s better performers contribute at the same time, the Power are highly competitive. Sadly for the Suns, they are missing a swag of their best players through injury and don’t have the attacking arsenal to trouble Port in this match.

VERDICT: Port Adelaide by 49 points

Sunday, 27 August

Essendon v Fremantle, Etihad Stadium 11.10am

Essendon know exactly what is required of them to play finals. So too does the football world, including Fremantle, who would desperately love to salvage something from a disappointing last few weeks of the season. Whether they are capable of doing that however is up for debate.

Dockers coach Ross Lyon needs to extract one last solid 120-minute performance from his charges or 2017 will be looked upon as somewhat disappointing despite his best efforts to sugarcoat it. As for the Bombers, they are ideally placed to take full toll of Fremantle at a ground where they can be lethal. However, the absence of Josh Green (foot) on top of Orazio Fantasia (hamstring) deprives Essendon of the attacking firepower John Worsfold would love at his disposal.

VERDICT: Essendon by 40 points

Richmond v St Kilda, MCG 1.20pm

There are those in the football world who continue to reserve their judgment on Richmond. Given what we have seen from the Tigers in finals series since their last premiership, even in three successive campaigns under Damien Hardwick from 2013-15, that is fair enough. But the body of work produced by Hardwick’s side this season suggests it is very much the real deal.

Richmond’s demolition of Fremantle last weekend was uncharacteristically ruthless and the perfect tune-up for the rematch with St Kilda, who embarrassed them only recently when they met at Etihad Stadium. The Saints would love to turn in a repeat performance — and they need to if they are to have any hope of playings finals — to ensure the retiring Nick Riewoldt is sent out a winner.

Saints midfielder Seb Ross won his individual battle with Dustin Martin in the earlier meeting this season, with his ability to work off the Brownlow Medal favourite and deny him the space he has enjoyed for the bulk of 2017 telling. Expect Martin to make the necessary adjustments and Richmond to win and clinch a crucial top-four spot.

VERDICT: Richmond by 20 points

West Coast v Adelaide, Domain Stadium 2.40pm

By the time West Coast grace Domain Stadium for the last time, they will know their fate. Unfortunately for Adam Simpson and his players however, the news is unlikely to be great. That leaves them needing to dig deep and generate two hours of elite football to see off the premiership favourites at a ground they play well at.

The Crows squandered an opportunity to seal the minor premiership when beaten by three points by Sydney and would dearly love to take care of business here to give themselves the perfect lead-in to their flag assault. If that is the case, their power-packed forward line of Taylor Walker, Josh Jenkins, Mitch McGovern, Tom Lynch and Eddie Betts will no doubt have a major role to play. At the other end of the ground, Josh Kennedy shapes as a thorn in the side of Adelaide, who could well venture west without Daniel Talia (ankle).

The Eagles struggle to piece together four quarters and Simpson has been loathe to play both Sam Mitchell and Matt Priddis in the same side towards the back end of the season. Given both are retiring after West Coast’s commitments for 2017 are completed, they line up in this game. With that occurring, Adelaide will be desperate to use their vaunted leg speed and slick ball movement to expose the Eagles’ suspect pace.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 29 points

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