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Digby’s AFL Round 20 Preview

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

Friday, 4 August

Geelong v Sydney, Simonds Stadium 5.50pm

The complexion of this match changed dramatically on Monday afternoon when the match review panel offered Patrick Dangerfield a one-match suspension. That was reinforced the following morning when Geelong accepted the penalty, ruling their superstar midfielder ineligible for the game’s highest individual award and, more importantly for the collective, this game also.

Dangerfield’s absence places greater pressure on Joel Selwood to carry Geelong’s midfield and we have seen previously that he can be tagged out of a match. If Sydney opt to curtail Selwood with a hard tag, then they are right in this match, even taking into account the likelihood their skipper Josh Kennedy misses with a hamstring strain.

The Swans have bullied Geelong of late, highlighted by their initial blitz in last year’s preliminary final that left Cats coach Chris Scott and his players stunned. Even if Kennedy doesn’t come up, the likes of Dan Hannebery, Luke Parker, Jake Lloyd, Isaac Heeney and Kieren Jack can impose themselves around the stoppages. Geelong have proven a tough nut to crack at Simonds Stadium this year, but the Swans won the corresponding match last season and aside from two slip-ups against Hawthorn, boast a formline that is hard to ignore.

VERDICT: Sydney by 10 points

Saturday, 5 August

GWS v Melbourne, Manuka Oval 11.45am

Greater Western Sydney flirted with disaster against Fremantle last Saturday before finding top gear to win pulling away. The importance of the victory cannot be understated, but equally, the average form of Leon Cameron’s men cannot be overlooked. That said, Melbourne head to the nation’s capital stinging after another loss to North Melbourne that left their top-eight claims in the balance.

The Demons’ loss to the Kangaroos was compounded by full-forward Jesse Hogan’s shoulder injury, placing further pressure on Tom McDonald to carry a heavy load in attack. At the other end of the ground, Jonathon Patton will also be required to step up in the absence of hamstrung Jeremy Cameron and suspended Toby Greene.

If the Giants are to make a run at this year’s flag, you suspect Brett Deledio will have a key role to play. The former No.1 draft pick has overcome persistent calf injuries and negotiated two NEAFL matches to earn senior selection. Expect Deledio to spend most of his return match in attack and it wouldn’t shock if his poise and class provide GWS with a vital edge.

VERDICT: GWS by 18 points

Essendon v Carlton, MCG 12.10pm

All-out attack. Miserly defence. Barring a break from tradition, that is what we can expect to see at the MCG when the offensive-minded Essendon square off against Carlton, who are stout backward of centre, but very lacklustre at the other end of the ground.

The Bombers wasted an opportunity to consolidate their spot in the top eight when they lost a shootout against the Western Bulldogs last Sunday. Their inability to convert in front of goal inside Etihad Stadium was especially costly and raises the stakes for their run home, which isn’t too testing.

The Blues stifled them when they met earlier in the season, but Brendon Bolton’s charges are limping to the finish line and not kicking enough goals to give themselves a chance to win games. That shapes as a real issue here, even taking into account the Bombers’ defensive frailties.

VERDICT: Essendon by 25 points

Brisbane v Western Bulldogs, Gabba 2.35pm

Brisbane will welcome back a host of players for this match, chiefly All-Australian contender Dayne Zorko and exciting young key forward Eric Hipwood. However, on what we witnessed last Sunday, it might not be enough. The Lions were exposed by West Coast in Perth, only a couple of hours after the Western Bulldogs got off the leash against Essendon.

The Bulldogs had issues scoring freely earlier in the season, but appreciated Essendon’s game plan and their own attacking mindset to apply genuine scoreboard pressure from midway through the opening term. Jason Johannisen has run into form and unless he is checked early in proceedings, it wouldn’t surprise if the Bulldogs get on their bike from the outset. Some believe the Bulldogs are back. A win here is unlikely to confirm that, but there is no denying their plight is a lot brighter than it was midway through last month.

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs by 40 points

North Melbourne v Collingwood, Etihad Stadium 5.25pm

We will learn a fair bit about Collingwood in this match. Are the Magpies able to pick themselves up after imploding in the second half against Adelaide at the MCG? If so, will they learn from their mistakes in that match and make the necessary adjustments against an opponent, which finally won a close game last weekend.

The two teams have been involved in some absorbing contests in recent times and this promises to be another one. The Kangaroos held their own in the midfield against Melbourne and they will again need to be effective against former teammate Daniel Wells, who now patrols the Collingwood midfield alongside Taylor Adams, Steele Sidebottom, Adam Treloar and Jack Crisp. Ben Brown continues to be a shining light in attack for North, but the absence of Jarrad Waite (calf) hurts.

VERDICT: Collingwood by 11 points

Fremantle v Gold Coast, Domain Stadium 5.40pm

Fremantle defied the odds and critics to stretch the necks of Greater Western Sydney last weekend. It was a performance, which if replicated here, will be sufficient to take down Gold Coast. And that is irrespective of how many goals the Dockers kick, which on exposed form, is unlikely to be a heap.

On what the football world has witnessed of late, it is difficult to see the Suns causing an upset. Rodney Eade’s team is missing key players and, from the outside, bereft of spirit. The Dockers at home have been competitive most weeks and still have a midfield capable of wielding an influence. Nat Fyfe, Lachie Neale, Stephen Hill, Lachie Weller and Bradley Hill will have key roles in the absence of Michael Walters (knee) and Connor Blakely (shoulder). There is no denying Fremantle are more committed to the cause than Gold Coast.

VERDICT: Fremantle by 32 points

Sunday, 6 August

St Kilda v West Coast, Etihad Stadium 11.10am

Emotions will run high in this match when St Kilda champion Nick Riewoldt and West Coast veteran Sam Mitchell run out for the first time since they announced this season would be their last at the elite level. The return of Riewoldt, on the back of his press conference on Monday, will give the Saints serious impetus and that is non-negotiable given where they are at in the finals chop-up.

As for the Eagles, a loss here would almost certainly kill off their finals prospects given they round out their home-and-away campaign against Carlton (home), Greater Western Sydney (away) and Adelaide (home). How West Coast handle the heat St Kilda bring when at their best, which is invariably at Etihad Stadium, will be crucial in the outcome.

On the flip side, the aggressive defending of St Kilda can leave them exposed out the back and Josh Kennedy, Jack Darling, Mark LeCras and Jamie Cripps are very capable of finding space behind a zone. Much will depend on how Drew Petrie butters up to the ruck duties and whether his midfield can stand its ground against the Saints’ on-ballers.

VERDICT: St Kilda by 19 points

Richmond v Hawthorn, MCG 1.20pm

Richmond continue to illustrate why they are very much in the premiership conversation. Heading to Metricon Stadium without Jack Riewoldt (eye) last weekend, the Tigers withstood a spirited Suns display early and then ground them into the dirt with a ruthless, no-frills attitude. It was a potential banana-skin game that Richmond may have struggled to handled in previous seasons.

Their new-found maturity will come in handy in this encounter against Hawthorn, who will be without suspended Luke Hodge, but desperate to keep alive their faint finals hopes with a win in skipper Jarryd Roughead’s 250th appearance. The Hawks deserved to win by more against Sydney last Friday night, as they controlled the battle at the coalface and then denied the Swans the ability to score with a wonderful team defence.

Richmond will ask plenty of the Hawks, who are emerging as a threat in-season due to the brilliance that is Alastair Clarkson. However, the ongoing unavailability of Cyril Rioli, Josh Gibson, Ben Stratton and Jaeger O’Meara could be exposed by an even Tigers outfit that will welcome back Riewoldt and boasts the raging Brownlow Medal favourite in Dustin Martin.

VERDICT: Richmond by 19 points

Adelaide v Port Adelaide, Adelaide Oval 2.40pm

Have the AFL saved the best for last in round 20? The answer is an emphatic yes. Granted, we start the round with a beauty down in Geelong, but there is something very special when these two bitter rivals square off. In simple terms, the clubs — and their supporters — dislike each other with a passion and that is reflected in the intensity with which showdowns are played.

The Crows escaped with a draw against Collingwood, a day after Port Adelaide, thanks in no small part to Paddy Ryder and Robbie Gray, dodged a bullet to dispose of St Kilda before a disbelieving, yet euphoric home crowd at Adelaide Oval. It was a win the Power needed to stay in the top-four mix, but the doubters remain. They need a scalp and it doesn’t get any bigger than Adelaide so deep into a home-and-away season.

Port’s issue is slowing down the ball movement of Adelaide. The Crows have a wonderful ability to launch off half-back and then spread their opposition with precise disposal and gut running. The expected return of Jake Lever, Eddie Betts and Brad Crouch strengthens Adelaide in three crucial areas. Factor in a forward line brimming with options and it’s not hard to see why the Crows have been installed as favourites.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 20 points

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