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Digby’s AFL Round 19 Preview

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

Geelong v Western Bulldogs

Friday, Simonds Stadium 5.50pm

Geelong have their slip-ups at home, but they are rare. And given the plight of both teams entering this match, it would be a major shock if the Cats were to bungle things. Corey Enright breaks the club’s games played record with his 326th appearance and Jimmy Bartel becomes the fourth Cat to break into the 300-game club. Conversely, the Bulldogs head down the highway without Mitch Wallis after he broke two bones in his left leg against St Kilda and key forward Jack Redpath (knee).

Luke Beveridge’s side has done a stellar job to stay in the top-four mix amid a crippling injury run and one wonders whether the physical and mental battle in the wake of Wallis’ horrific injury becomes too much to handle. The return of Jake Stringer is vital, but the Bulldogs need Tom Boyd to contribute sooner rather than later. Doing that against a Cats defence which held Adelaide to seven goals just six days ago is a daunting task.

VERDICT: Geelong by 29 points.

1st goal scorer: Tom Hawkins

GWS v Richmond

Saturday, StarTrack Oval 11.45am

Richmond head to the nation’s capital knowing they have won all five matches against Greater Western Sydney. As sure as night follows day, that streak will be broken this weekend. The Tigers have never played a Giants side as accomplished as they one they will encounter in Canberra. GWS were seriously challenged against Port Adelaide last Sunday, 15 days after they succumbed to Collingwood when things didn’t go their way, and their response was emphatic.

They are indeed very quick learners. It helps when your midfield is powered by elite talent such as Josh Kelly, Dylan Shiel, Stephen Coniglio, Tom Scully and Callan Ward at the feet of a dominant ruckman in Shane Mumford. Richmond’s inability to move the ball with precision and speed, and impact the scoreboard hinders their development. They will be exposed by a high-scoring GWS outfit.

VERDICT: GWS by 45 points.

1st goal scorer: Jonathon Patton

Hawthorn v Carlton

Saturday, Aurora Stadium 12.10pm

The Hawthorn side the football world is witnessing at present is a long way removed from the one that was very much hit and miss leading into its mid-season bye. And that spells trouble for the rest of the competition. Sadly for Carlton, they are included in that conversation. The Blues have stretched the necks of West Coast and Sydney in the past fortnight, but the Hawks at their Tasmanian fortress is another assignment altogether.

Hawthorn’s desire to pummel Richmond in the final term last Sunday reeked of a side on a mission. Their quality performers, notably Sam Mitchell, Jordan Lewis, Luke Hodge, Josh Gibson and Shaun Burgoyne, are in excellent nick and the second-tier players have come to the party, namely Bradley Hill. Carlton are gallant, organised and competing hard, but their lack of depth and firepower leaves them vulnerable.

VERDICT: Hawthorn by 60 points.

1st goal scorer: Luke Breust

Collingwood v West Coast

Saturday, MCG 2.35pm

West Coast return to Melbourne seeking a four-quarter performance that has proved elusive for the bulk of their 2016 campaign. If they are able to produce 120 minutes of above average football, they have the talent to overcome Collingwood, who will be suited by the MCG rather than Etihad Stadium where they were exposed by North Melbourne last Friday night. Nathan Buckley’s men misplaced their aggression and kicking boots and cannot afford to make the same mistake here.

The Eagles are grinding rather than purring, although that is through no fault of their defence, which continues to be superbly led by Jeremy McGovern, and a midfield that extracts quality performances more often than not from Matt Priddis, Andrew Gaff and Luke Shuey. Collingwood were chopped up out of the centre square by the Kangaroos, but they have enough talent in there to make the necessary adjustments. It shapes as being hard work, but the Eagles’ top-four hopes depend on a victory.

VERDICT: West Coast by 11 points.

1st goal scorer: Josh Kennedy

Brisbane v Port Adelaide

Saturday, Gabba 5.25pm

Brisbane all but avoided the wooden spoon with their win over Essendon last Sunday, but long-suffering home fans wanting to sing the club song for the first time this season will have to wait a little longer. Port Adelaide look certain to miss finals for a second successive year, but have sufficient class and motivation to win their second match against the Lions in 2016 and avenge the disaster that befell them in the corresponding match last season.

The Power will again be without Charlie Dixon, although this week’s conditions should suit spearhead Jay Schulz better than those in the loss to Greater Western Sydney. And if Robbie Gray, Brad Ebert, Hamish Hartlett and Travis Boak can win enough football midfield, Brisbane’s shaky back six could be under siege. Port coach Ken Hinkey will look to curb the influence of Daniel Rich, who got the ball rolling last weekend. If Rich is nullified, the Lions are very, very vanilla.

VERDICT: Port Adelaide by 34 points.

1st goal scorer: Josh Walker

North Melbourne v St Kilda

Saturday, Etihad Stadium 5.25pm

North Melbourne have made a habit of performing well in milestone games and Brent Harvey will be hoping that continues in this encounter. As for St Kilda, they are entitled to wonder what they have done to run into the Kangaroos twice this season in matches of significance — Drew Petrie’s 300th appearance in which they lost by seven points, and Harvey’s VFL-AFL record of 427 games.

However, the Saints are a formidable opponent inside Etihad Stadium and boast crucial wins over Geelong and the Western Bulldogs at the venue this season, victories which have them eyeing off the Kangaroos’ spot in the top eight. North were terrific against Collingwood early, thanks in no small part to Daniel Wells, who sliced the Magpies in the initial 30 minutes. He again shapes as a key player, as does St Kilda ball magnet Jack Steven. Very little separated the two sides earlier in the season and it would be a shock if this was a blow-out.

VERDICT: North Melbourne by 10 points.

1st goal scorer: Ben Brown

Melbourne v Gold Coast

Sunday, MCG 11.10am

Melbourne did everything but land the four points against West Coast last weekend, but look perfectly placed to address that shortcoming here. The Demons have enough class and depth through the midfield to expose an area where Gold Coast are vulnerable. Fremantle were unable to do so, but a Max Gawn-led following division boasting Nathan Jones, Bernie Vince, Jack Viney, Dom Tyson and Christian Petracca will ask much of the Suns.

That said, Gold Coast will think they have the weapons forward of centre to expose Melbourne’s back line. Tom Lynch, Peter Wright and Sam Day combined for 11 goals last week and if Melbourne defend as a group like they did opposed to St Kilda a fortnight ago rather than the manner they performed against West Coast, Rodney Eade’s men will fancy their chances.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 29 points.

1st goal scorer: Jesse Hogan

Fremantle v Sydney

Sunday, Domain Stadium 1.20pm

Fortunately, Fremantle’s wretched 2016 season doesn’t have long to go. From minor premiers to basket cases inside 12 months, the Dockers have experienced a decline that is hard to fathom. However, the opportunity to celebrate Matthew Pavlich’s 350th game in the appropriate fashion should provide a much-needed spark, even taking into account the quality of the opposition.

Sydney have struggled to adjust to life without an injured Kurt Tippett and now have to make do minus Callum Sinclair, who will miss at least a month following knee surgery. That hinders the options at coach John Longmire’s disposal, but he will back his midfielders Josh Kennedy, Luke Parker, Dan Hannebery, Kieren Jack, Tom Mitchell and Jake Lloyd to hold sway. And if Sydney are committed to forward-half pressure, Fremantle’s constant skill errors by foot will mount.

VERDICT: Sydney by 39 points.

1st goal scorer: Lance Franklin

Adelaide v Essendon

Sunday, Adelaide 2.40pm

Adelaide’s pursuit of an all-important top-two spot hit a hurdle against Geelong last weekend, but it will be well and truly back on track in the more accommodating surrounds of Adelaide Oval as their draw opens up. The Crows were unable to boss the midfield like they had in the preceding two months and when the opportunities did present, the finishing wasn’t at the required standard, especially in the third quarter.

Essendon were also guilty of wasting gilt-edged chances in front of goal in their loss to Brisbane. That can’t afford to happen again given they will not be as plentiful in this contest. The Crows will look to experienced midfielders Scott Thompson and Rory Sloane to set the standard inside the centre square at the feet of Sam Jacobs and if that occurs, Essendon will be on their heels. Watch for Eddie Betts to bounce back from a rare quiet outing.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 70 points.

1st goal scorer: Eddie Betts

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