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Digby’s AFL Round 18 Preview

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

Collingwood v North Melbourne

Friday, Etihad Stadium 5.50pm

It is inconceivable to think a side could start the season 9-0 and sit comfortably on top of the ladder, only to suffer a staggering fall from grace and miss the finals. That is the scenario swirling around North Melbourne at present given their woes. Yes, they are two games clear in eighth position, but resembe anything but a finals outfit. Conversely, Collingwood have been able to rescue their season with some spirited performances of late, giving hope to their legion of fans.

The Magpies’ midfield has been solid, defensively they are sound and the forward line looks a lot more potent with Travis Cloke back in the line-up and showing glimpses of his best. The Kangaroos are struggling to handle sides with genuine leg speed and their kicking efficiency, so slick earlier in the season, is off the pace. The only advantage North have over Collingwood is this game is at Etihad Stadium. If that doesn’t help them, they are in a world of hurt.

VERDICT: North Melbourne by 1 point.

1st goal scorer: Travis Cloke

Sydney v Carlton

Saturday, SCG 11.45am

A last-gasp loss to Hawthorn, followed by the headlines surrounding Michael Talia’s cocaine charge, have caused Sydney to answer many unwanted questions in the lead-up to this important home match against Carlton. Narrow defeats to Adelaide, Richmond, the Western Bulldogs and Hawks have left the Swans with precious little wriggle room if they are to secure a top-two berth. They should be able to set things straight here.

The Blues were gallant against West Coast, the influence of Patrick Cripps after half-time igniting a surge that nearly netted them four points. They will be better with Levi Cabsoult in attack after serving his suspension, but Sydney’s midfield options, notably Luke Parker, Kieren Jack, Josh Kennedy, Dan Hannebery and co., far outweigh those Carlton have with captain Marc Murphy (ankle) still missing. Sydney’s defence continues to be one of the best in the competition also.

VERDICT: Sydney by 45 points.

1st goal scorer: Lance Franklin

Gold Coast v Fremantle

Saturday, Metricon Stadium 12.10pm

Fremantle’s woeful season was dealt fresh blows last weekend when Michael Barlow (AC joint) and Hayden Ballantyne (cheekbone) were injured against Geelong. Their absence, along with the decision to rest Matthew Pavlich, makes it difficult to see how the Dockers get over the top of an equally injury-ravaged Gold Coast. The Suns have been decimated through the midfield this year and will front up against the Dockers minus Michael Rischitelli (knee), Gary Ablett (shoulder), Dion Prestia (knee), David Swallow (knee) and Jaeger O’Meara (soreness).

It is a gaping hole, although offset slightly by Tom Lynch and Peter Wright in attack. They just need a manageable number of opportunities to shake the life out of this game. Fremantle were combative and competitive against the Cats, but their poor ball use when exiting their defensive 50m was a real problemand cannot afford to be repeated here. In a contest with little appeal, the Suns should scrape home.

VERDICT: Gold Coast by 10 points.

1st goal scorer: Tom Lynch

West Coast v Melbourne

Saturday, Domain Stadium 2.35pm

The football world is waiting for West Coast to flick the switch. Adam Simpson is probably in the same boat. There were good signs against Carlton last Sunday, but there was also cause for concern, especially when the Blues surged in the final term. However, the comforts of home should be enough for West Coast to chalk up win No.12 for the year and stay in the top-four conversation ahead of two more winnable matches against Collingwood and Fremantle.

Melbourne have failed to defend in the manner Paul Roos would like in recent weeks and his charges’ inability to handle the heat of St Kilda after quarter time last Sunday wouldn’t have been lost on the Eagles. When on song, West Coast squeeze the life out of their opponents on the narrow confines of Domain Stadium, providing their forwards with opportunities to run back towards goal with nothing but grass in front of them. Josh Kennedy leads the Coleman Medal race and his goal-kicking partners Mark LeCras, Jack Darling and Jamie Cripps are in good enough nick.

VERDICT: West Coast by 50 points.

1st goal scorer: Jack Darling

Western Bulldogs v St Kilda

Saturday, Etihad Stadium 5.25pm

The Western Bulldogs have thumbed their nose at a crippling injury list to nestle themselves inside the top four in the run to the finals. It has been a remarkable achievement and built on dominance in and around the stoppages and a defence that has improved dramatically on 2015. Those two areas will need to be excellent again given the absence of leading goal kicker Jake Stringer (shoulder) and how desperate St Kilda will be as they continue to chase a top-eight berth.

The Saints gunned down Melbourne last weekend, with their defensive pressure outstanding. It was arguably their best effort of the season in the final three terms and sets them up perfectly for this assignment. There is no denying that both sides will relish the match being played at Etihad Stadium, with the Saints hellbent on atoning for a really poor display in the round-two loss to the Bulldogs when they were held to just five goals. Tim Membrey’s inclusion and contribution since that fixture has been telling, but the Bulldogs are third for a reason.

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs by 21 points.

1st goal scorer: Jack Redpath

Geelong v Adelaide

Saturday, Simonds Stadium 5.25pm

Geelong got the win they desperately needed against Fremantle, but questions still remain about their legitimacy. The Cats at full flight are arguably the best side in the competition, but their inability to sustain efforts in matches and share the load is a growing concern. Both areas will need to be addressed if Geelong are to win their second match against Adelaide this year. The Cats stunned the Crows in round eight at Adelaide Oval, the last time Don Pyke’s side lowered its colours.

Adelaide’s defence has improved immeasurably since the previous meeting, but it is their forward line which strikes fear into the heart of their rivals. And understandably so. The aerial firepower of Taylor Walker, Tom Lynch and Josh Jenkins is brilliantly complemented by the talents at ground level of Eddie Betts and Charlie Cameron. Geelong’s defence is experienced and organised, but better working in numbers than one-on-one. If Adelaide hold their ground midfield, there is no reason why they can’t cause an upset.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 12 points.

1st goal scorer: Taylor Walker

Essendon v Brisbane

Sunday, Etihad Stadium 11.10am

The prospect of Essendon starting a game in 2016 as favourites seemed unfathomable at the start of the season. But so bad have Brisbane been, that is exactly the situation the Bombers find themselves in entering this match. And on what we have seen in recent weeks, Essendon deserve to be the popular pick, even taking into account their 14-game losing streak.

Brisbane have been unable to stem the flow of goals of their opposition and though the Bombers aren’t exactly an offensive juggernaut, they have been far more efficient forward of centre of late. Joe Daniher is busting to have a breakout game featuring multiple marks and goals and it could come here, despite the expected return of Daniel Merrett. If Justin Leppitsch has any designs on keeping his job in 2017, he cannot afford a loss here.

VERDICT: Essendon by 23 points.

1st goal scorer: Joe Daniher

Hawthorn v Richmond

Sunday, MCG 1.20pm

Hawthorn don’t appear to the dominant force of years gone by, but as we approach the business end of the home-and-away campaign, the Hawks sit two games clear on top of the table and masters of winning the close games. Their stirring effort against Sydney featured quality performances from their premier performers Cyril Rioli, Shaun Burgoyne, Sam Mitchell, Jordan Lewis and Josh Gibson, while Bradley Hill’s effort was encouraging.

Richmond had to dig deep to overcome Essendon, the individual display by Dustin Martin a highlight. Beating a driven Hawthorn side intent on keeping the chasing pack at bay is at another level altogether. The Tigers have a heavy reliance on too few, chiefly through the midfield, and aren’t able to move the ball with the precision and speed of the better sides. The Hawks have looked a far more focused outfit since their bye and will relish being back at the MCG.

VERDICT: Hawthorn by 32 points.

1st goal scorer: Jack Gunston

Port Adelaide v GWS

Sunday, Adelaide Oval 2.40pm

Port Adelaide couldn’t have been more impressive against North Melbourne last weekend, but will need to raise the bar even further if they are to take down Greater Western Sydney. And doing so without Charlie Dixon (ankle) in attack only makes the assignment harder. Fortunately for Port, Jay Schulz has returned from injury and moved freely. He will need to pick up the slack in Dixon’s absence.

Jackson Trengove was terrific against Todd Goldstein, but the imposing Shane Mumford will ask much of the Power’s back-up ruckman. Mumford’s presence inside the centre square and at the stoppages drives the Giants’ running division. Callan Ward, Dylan Shiel, Josh Kelly and Stephen Conglio are in the elite category and service a forward line that has been strengthened in recent weeks by the availability of Devon Smith. GWS obliterated the Power earlier this season and while a similar margin won’t occur, Leon Cameron’s side looks too potent.

VERDICT: GWS by 24 points.

1st goal scorer: Toby Greene

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