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Digby’s AFL Round 15 Preview

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

Friday, 30 June

Melbourne v Sydney, MCG 5.50pm

The drama surrounding Melbourne, in particular Clayton Oliver, following their stirring come-from-behind effort against West Coast, has held a place of prominence in the headlines for most of the week ahead of this clash. In years gone by, that might have been too much for the Demons to handle, but one suspects this emerging team is ready and willing to tackle anything that stands in its way.

And that’s just as well because Sydney, the form team of the competition, are heading south for a Friday night fixture of enormous importance. The Swans are still not in first gear, but they are getting to the finish line, albeit just in time if the past two weeks against Richmond and Essendon are any guide. Importantly, the two victories have come on the back of a powerful midfield display when required, with captain Josh Kennedy leading the way.

Sydney’s poise in the frantic last few minutes of both matches has been a standout and if Lance Franklin can rediscover his radar after booting 0.6 against Essendon, then Melbourne will have their hands full. In a perfect world, Melbourne would use Tom McDonald on Franklin. No Jack Watts (hamstring) and Jesse Hogan (underdone) means McDonald has to play forward, leaving the monumental task to either Oscar McDonald or Sam Frost. At the other end of the ground, the absence of Jeff Garlett (hamstring) is a serious blow.

VERDICT: Sydney by 12 points

Saturday, 1 July

Western Bulldogs v West Coast, Etihad Stadium 11.45am

In a chaotic season such as this, the commentary surrounding the plight of football clubs is unrelenting. Nobody needs to tell that to the Western Bulldogs and West Coast, who have been scrutinised as heavily as each other and perhaps more than most after their topsy turvy campaigns. But for all their flaws, which according to many are significant, one will be 8-6 and very much in top-four reckoning with a victory.

The Bulldogs showed signs of the successful 2016 outfit against North Melbourne last Saturday night, but only held on to win by the narrowest of margins, while the Eagles succumbed to a Tom McDonald snap inside the final 30 seconds. How the Eagles handle the pressure the Bulldogs apply through the midfield will be crucial. As will West Coast’s mindset. Too often this season, they have looked overwhelmed by the challenge in front of them when they have ventured to Melbourne.

Halting the huge numbers capable of being amassed by Marcus Bontempelli, Luke Dahlhaus, Jack Macrae, Mitch Wallis, Caleb Daniel and Tom Liberatore at the feet of Tom Campbell is vital for the Eagles, who are without captain Shannon Hurn (concussion), Josh Kennedy (calf) and Mark LeCras (hip). Luke Shuey, Matt Priddis, Sam Mitchell and Elliot Yeo are carrying a big load through the midfield, while the return to form of Lewis Jetta has been heartening. But until West Coast prove trustworthy away from WA, the Bulldogs are the safe tip.

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs by 20 points

Carlton v Adelaide, MCG 12.10pm

From genuine contenders to pretenders. That is how many are viewing Adelaide after their shock loss to Hawthorn at Adelaide Oval last week. A blazing 6-0 start to the season has turned into 9-4, prompting stinging criticism regarding the Crows’ inability to win ugly and respond in an appropriate fashion when things don’t go their way.

Carlton aren’t going to play finals, but their defence-first attitude can strangle the opposition. We saw that earlier this month opposed to Greater Western Sydney and even in their arm-wrestle against Richmond last weekend. The Blues will more than likely send Ed Curnow to Rory Sloane, who has struggled to overcome a hard tag and physical attention this season. But the big issue for Carlton is kicking a winning total against an Adelaide unit that has its flaws, but still possesses sufficient firepower to handle teams in the bottom half of the ladder more often than not.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 20 points

Gold Coast v North Melbourne, Metricon Stadium 2.35pm

One gun midfielder in, one very accomplished midfielder out. In simple terms, that scenario could well shape the outcome of this match. Gold Coast are set to welcome back Gary Ablett for his 300th game after he missed last weekend with a calf tweak, while North Melbourne will be missing Ben Cunnington (suspension), while captain Jack Ziebell (shoulder) is no guarantee to line up.

The Suns can be hard to catch, but they were solid enough without Ablett against St Kilda. His influence and milestone, along with Steven May’s 100th appearance, will give them an emotional lift and there is arguably no more emotional side in the competition than Gold Coast. Co-captain Tom Lynch has had a torrid time of it of late in attack and would dearly love to impose himself here to get the hosts rolling. If Ablett does recover in time and takes his place, the Suns win.

VERDICT: Gold Coast by 19 points

GWS v Geelong, Spotless Stadium 5.25pm

The football world continues to dissect the premiership market ad nauseam after each round. It is what we do. However, when it is all cut and dried and scrutinised to an inch of its life, maybe the most obvious selection is right in front of us. Greater Western Sydney. The Giants have been decimated by injuries from the outset of 2017 and still find themselves a game clear on top. It wouldn’t be a shock if they clear out from here and finish two, possibly three, games ahead of the second-placed side at the end of the home-and-away season and launch their premiership assault with the benefit of two finals at Spotless Stadium.

Though they will miss young gun Tim Taranto (ankle), they regain Brownlow Medal fancy Josh Kelly to bolster a midfield being well served by Dylan Shiel, Callan Ward, Tom Scully and Lachie Whitfield. The Cats will name Joel Selwood despite his bout of concussion, but it would be a surprise if he played. That places great pressure on Patrick Dangerfield, but the Brownlow medallist relishes responsibility. Mitch Duncan aside, it can be argued that the other Geelong midfielders aren’t anywhere near as effective when “Dangerwood” isn’t up and running.

The Giants blew apart Brisbane as expected, with their ball movement and skill level proving too much for the Lions. Geelong were asked many questions by Fremantle and though they responded in the end, their decision making and execution under pressure wasn’t all that appealing. Expect GWS to throw the kitchen sink at them and if Selwood fails to get up, the Cats will be vulnerable.

VERDICT: GWS by 28 points

Port Adelaide v Richmond, Adelaide Oval 5.40pm

Richmond have experienced some horror showings at Adelaide Oval, including one earlier this season against the Crows. They return to the venue this weekend and should be excited, rather than daunted, by the opportunity before them. In all likelihood, the Tigers will jump into the top four by the end of the round with a victory — not a bad position to be in given their string of narrow defeats after being in winnable positions.

But taking down Port before their home fans is anything but a leisurely stroll. Indeed, like Richmond the Power are doing a lot of things right, with their defensive structures the bedrock for a season coach Ken Hinkley simply needed to have. Port could also be in a position to hold sway in the most important area of the ground — the midfield — thanks to Paddy Ryder, who looks fresher and in better nick than Richmond’s Toby Nankervis.

Robbie Gray’s performance against Collingwood last weekend was first-class and with Chad Wingard back in the line-up and finding his feet again after missing a handful of weeks with a calf niggle, the Power look to have the weapons to trouble Richmond. The Tigers will again turn to Dustin Martin — and understandably so — but the loss of Bachar Houli (suspended) hurts.

VERDICT: Port Adelaide by 16 points

Sunday, 2 July

Essendon v Brisbane, Etihad Stadium 11.10am

There are losses that leave players disappointed and then there are losses that leave players gutted, in a state of disbelief and unable to process what exactly went wrong for a period of days. Welcome to the world of Essendon after the events of last Friday night at the SCG. The 22 Bombers who took part in that match would have endured a wretched weekend, but the pragmatic approach of coach John Worsfold would have been invaluable in dealing with the heartache.

The most important thing for Essendon is that they don’t feel sorry for themselves and get back on the bike against Brisbane. That task has been made easier by the absence of Lions captain Dayne Beams (shoulder), denying Chris Fagan’s side its talisman through the midfield. Brisbane were opened up by Greater Western Sydney and though the Bombers aren’t at that level, they can be lethal inside Etihad Stadium. This is an opportunity for Essendon to do some work on their percentage.

VERDICT: Essendon by 45 points

Hawthorn v Collingwood, MCG 1.20pm

For all their trials and tribulations in 2017, Hawthorn will be above Collingwood on the ladder after this match if successful. It seems remarkable to think that could occur given the Hawks’ capitulations to Gold Coast (twice) this year, along with a host of other disappointing displays. But on what we witnessed last round, it is a very real possibility.

The Hawks were superb in bringing down Adelaide, with two players at contrasting stages of their careers — Shaun Burgoyne and Ryan Burton — instrumental in the victory. Collingwood met with good support in the lead-up to their MCG assignment against Port Adelaide, but turned in a performance that has become all too familiar. Their midfielders found a heap of football, yet their forwards looked like they were playing together for the first time this year. Collingwood will have the added incentive of captain Scott Pendlebury’s 250th game, and in a match where very little separates the two sides, maybe that will be enough. But it is a big if.

VERDICT: Collingwood by 3 points

Fremantle v St Kilda, Domain Stadium 2.40pm

Fremantle fans had been waiting a while, but finally there was a pulse last round. It was just as well because the Dockers’ season was on life support after three bad losses heading into their bye. They didn’t get the points against Geelong, but the method, combative nature and cohesion was impossible not to like.

If St Kilda thought they would head west, snare the four points and head home ensconced in the top eight, they would have been required to do a double take in the wake of what went on down at Simonds Stadium. And in a significant boost for Fremantle, captain Nat Fyfe (sternum) and ruckman Aaron Sandilands (hamstring) are set to return, giving their midfield a serious lift.

St Kilda have found a way to get over North Melbourne and Gold Coast in the past fortnight without setting the world on fire. However, the continual improvement of Jack Billings as a high half-forward has been terrific and the Saints will back in their leg speed through the midfield to trouble the Dockers, who will be desperate for Cam McCarthy and Shane Kersten to impact the scoreboard. It would be foolish also to underestimate the influence of Hayden Ballantyne before the Freo faithful.

VERDICT: Fremantle by 15 points

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