Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 8

Posted on May 10, 2018 | Posted by Digby Beacham

FRIDAY

Hawthorn v Sydney, MCG, 5.50pm

It won’t be pretty, but there is no denying that the winners of this match will sit back and be mighty pleased with themselves. The forecast of atrocious conditions ensures this will be hand-to-hand combat for 120 minutes, with the stakes raised given the lofty expectations of both teams.

What we have seen with Hawthorn in 2018 is a return of their efficiency. Their field kicking has again been a highlight, their tackling numbers are high and their accuracy in front of goal a feature when you factor in how badly so many other sides convert. All three facets will be vital in this contest.

As strange as it sounds, the Swans will be happy to be on the road, having lost three matches at the SCG this season. But John Longmire’s team has several young faces in it and they will be exposed to an occasion and conditions on a Friday night stage that is not commonplace.

VERDICT: Hawthorn by 11 points

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SATURDAY

GWS v West Coast, Spotless Stadium, 11.45am

West Coast’s chances were dealt a hammer blow on Wednesday night when the AFL Tribunal upheld Nic Naitanui’s one-match suspension, ruling him out of this match. Naitanui’s tap work and pressure around the clearances has been outstanding and a key reason why the Eagles have jumped out of the ground to peel off six straight wins.

His absence is compounded by the unavailability of Luke Shuey (hamstring) and Dom Sheed (foot), depriving the Eagles of important cogs in their midfield machine. Talking of machines, the GWS one is spluttering. They have been riddled by injuries (again) this season and their effort to kick only four goals against Geelong last Friday night was damning.

There will be a response and how the Eagles stand up to it, especially early, will be critical to the outcome of this match. The Giants have had their problems kicking sizeable scores in the absence of Jeremy Cameron and Toby Greene and West Coast’s defensive structure is extremely organised. But no Naitanui is massive.

VERDICT: GWS by 8 points

Carlton v Essendon, MCG, 12.10pm

To say Essendon have been the great disappointments might well be the understatement of 2018. First-up winners over Adelaide, the Bombers have been disorganised and disinterested since, with their glaring deficiencies resulting in a 2-5 win-loss record that casts serious doubt on their finals participation.

They now face up to their old rivals Carlton, who have been a thorn in their side recently, without spearhead and club champion Joe Daniher (groin). If Essendon coach John Worsfold thought the past few weeks had been tough, it might be best that he orchestrates a victory here.

The Blues have many shortcomings, chiefly the talent and youth on their list, and they are unable to call on Levi Casboult, who suffered internal damage in the heavy loss to Adelaide. As with the Friday night game, conditions are likely to ensure this match is a low-scoring, physical affair. That just might suit the seasoned Essendon bodies a little bit more.

VERDICT: Essendon by 13 points

Gold Coast v Melbourne, Gabba, 2.35pm

The issue surrounding Melbourne for some time has been whether they are trustworthy. Many in the football world predicted they would break their finals drought last season, only to cough up games and opportunities that good sides do not. What we have seen of late however is a growing maturity within the line-up, by extension the football club.

The Demons might still be outside the top eight, but their two wins over Essendon and St Kilda have been solid enough, their ability to extend when challenged impressive. Gold Coast will ask questions of them here, as they have done to most of their opponents this season.

The Suns had their chances to topple the Western Bulldogs last weekend, and may have done so had co-captains Steven May and Tom Lynch been available. May is expected to return from injury, but the absence forward of centre of Lynch leaves the low-scoring hosts vulnerable against Melbourne, who have a wealth of goal-kicking options.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 23 points

Port Adelaide v Adelaide, Adelaide Oval, 3.10pm

Port Adelaide coach Ken Hinkley was filthy with how his players handled the heat applied by West Coast last weekend. He lamented their lack of physicality and efficiency at the clearances as they succumbed quite meekly at their maiden visit to Optus Stadium.

With that having occurred and the stakes raised significantly here in a match-up his men have lost the past five times, ferocity early from the Power is a given. It is how they sustain that hunt and intent for the duration against a highly skilled Crows side which is likely to have a large bearing on the outcome.

Adelaide had a glorified training drill against Carlton last Saturday night, with Mitch McGovern a beneficiary in attack. The Crows have been a lot more efficient at the stoppages since Matt Crouch returned from a hamstring injury, with the influence of Sam Jacobs in the ruck telling. His battle with Paddy Ryder, who should be better for his run last week, shapes as a beauty.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 20 points

Western Bulldogs v Brisbane, Etihad Stadium, 5.25pm

The Western Bulldogs, extremely young by design, are making some progress after a shaky start to the season. Their narrow win over Gold Coast last weekend was their third for the year and achieved thanks in no small part to the contribution of midfielder Jack Macrae.

It could be argued that Brisbane are also making some progress, even though their 0-7 record suggests otherwise. They lost another thriller last Sunday to Collingwood, when Dayne Zorko recaptured his best form to amass 34 possessions and four goals. Zorko has struggled with a tag for the most part this year and it would be a major shock if Luke Beveridge and his players didn’t put a lot of work into him.

If that occurs as expected, Zorko needs to find a way to respond, rather than hoist the white flag as he has been guilty of at times this season. The Bulldogs are a long way removed from their premiership best, even though it wasn’t that long ago, but they still have enough talent to extend the Lions’ losing streak.

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs by 29 points

Fremantle v St Kilda, Optus Stadium, 6.10pm

Fremantle were poor against Richmond last Sunday. There is no disputing that. But only those inside the four walls at the club and the most one-eyed Dockers supporters would have given them any chance of upsetting the premiers at the MCG.

The same applies to this game from a St Kilda perspective. The Saints head west out of form, lacking self-belief and without young spearhead Paddy McCartin (whiplash) and Ben Long (foot), depriving an already dysfunctional forward line of potency. That is less than ideal given the Dockers will be desperate to respond at Optus Stadium, which has quickly become a fortress for the WA clubs.

Nat Fyfe’s display against the Tigers was stunning and it appears the Saints have no logical match-up to subdue him. If the Dockers captain can lead his team in the manner we have come to expect and Aaron Sandilands butters up well enough after a six-day break and travel, it would be a surprise if Fremantle don’t do a number on the Saints.

VERDICT: Fremantle by 45 points

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SUNDAY

North Melbourne v Richmond, Etihad Stadium, 11.10am

North Melbourne defied the critics yet again last Saturday night when they ventured to the SCG and upset Sydney in a pulsating arm-wrestle. The following afternoon at the MCG, Richmond defied logic which said a third match in 13 days made them vulnerable when they blew up Fremantle in the last quarter.

The feats of both sides, and their overall body of work in 2018, lights the fuse for a terrific contest before what should be a bumper crowd inside Etihad Stadium, a venue that the Kangaroos like and one that Richmond should also enjoy playing in now given their high-pressure, high-octane brand of football.

Richmond boast the league’s No.1 defence, marginally ahead of the second-ranked Kangaroos. That suggests goals will be at a premium, although both teams have shown regularly this year that they do have the firepower to overwhelm their opposition. The expected return of captain Trent Cotchin (knee) shapes as a big boost for the Tigers.

VERDICT: Richmond by 30 points

Collingwood v Geelong, MCG, 1.20pm

For all their troubles in recent seasons, Collingwood have thoroughly enjoyed taking on Geelong. The Magpies had won three in a row against the Cats leading into last season’s round-22 match which they lost by only 11 points.

Given how much better they are in 2018, the Magpies are entitled to enter this match believing they can again impose themselves on the Cats, who front up without suspended full-forward Tom Hawkins. But Geelong do have an extra two days rest to prepare for this match and will welcome back Gary Ablett from a hamstring injury.

Ablett’s presence alongside Patrick Dangerfield, Joel Selwood, Mitch Duncan, Tim Kelly and Joel Selwood gives Geelong a deep and talented running division that will ask a lot of questions of Collingwood, who are sweating on the fitness of skipper Scott Pendlebury (ankle).

VERDICT: Geelong by 18 points

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