Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 4

Posted on April 6, 2023 | Posted by Digby Beacham

THURSDAY

Brisbane v Collingwood, Gabba, 5.35pm

Joe Daniher and Eric Hipwood have been the talk of the town in Brisbane this week … for all the wrong reasons.

To say they need to respond on the big stage in this clash with an unbeaten Collingwood is stating the bleeding obvious. Lions coach Chris Fagan defended the pair at his midweek press conference, but did concede he wanted greater competitiveness and defensive intensity from them.

Collingwood coach Craig McRae has no such worries about competitiveness or defensive intensity. Most of his focus this week has been how to combat the Lions’ big-man department without recognised ruck pair Darcy Cameron and Mason Cox.

VERDICT: Brisbane to win

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FRIDAY

North Melbourne v Carlton, Marvel Stadium, 2.20pm

North Melbourne welcome back key midfielders Jy Simpkin (suspension) and Luke Davies-Uniacke (injury) here in a marquee match the club has worked hard to promote over several years.

They are welcome additions, but their presence alone is not going to be enough to stifle Carlton. The Blues boast genuine strike weapons in Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay, who are going to go about their business without having to worry about the suspended Griffin Logue.

The Blues haven’t set the scoreboard alight in the opening three rounds, however you get the impression an offensive-laden display isn’t far away.

VERDICT: Carlton by 1-39 points

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SATURDAY

Adelaide v Fremantle, Adelaide Oval, 11.45am

What to do with Fremantle? Tip them believing the win over West Coast was the firestarter to a faltering campaign or steer clear until you see more, especially considering this match is away from home?

It is a dilemma, no doubt. The Dockers looked to play with greater freedom last weekend, albeit had to work overtime to shrug off a depleted Eagles outfit. Like Fremantle, Adelaide entered round three desperately needing a win and chalked one up opposed to Port Adelaide.

Young guns Izak Rankine and Riley Thilthorpe combined for nine goals in a performance which had Crows fans salivating about the future.

VERDICT: Fremantle to win

Richmond v Western Bulldogs, MCG, 2.35pm

The Western Bulldogs’ midfield doesn’t bat as deep as it once did, but we did learn that it can apply pressure like the better running divisions when required.

The challenge for Marcus Bontempelli and his teammates is to repeat what they produced against Brisbane last Thursday night here against a Richmond side expected to be boosted by the return of both Dustin Martin and Jacob Hopper.

Richmond aren’t the same side that claimed three flags in four seasons. They do though have an aura about them and are  seemingly better placed in inclement conditions than the Bulldogs.

VERDICT: Richmond by 1-39 points

St Kilda v Gold Coast, Marvel Stadium, 5.30pm

St Kilda’s hierarchy sought out Ross Lyon at the end of last season confident he could have an immediate impact. A blistering 3-0 start in the face of an extensive injury list has vindicated their decision to replace Brett Ratten with Ross The Boss.

The Saints have proven relentless in the pressure stakes and pouncing on the mistakes made by their opposition. The challenge for the Suns is to withstand the initial surge that overwhelmed Essendon last Saturday night, enabling the Saints to improve to 3-0.

The Suns found a way to overcome Geelong last Sunday at home, thanks in no small part to Jack Lukosius’ five-goal haul and some undeniable pop off half-back from Lachie Weller and Wil Powell. Can they take that form down to Melbourne?

VERDICT: St Kilda -12.5 points at the line

Sydney v Port Adelaide, SCG, 5.30pm

There are a swag of sides Sydney would rather meet than Port Adelaide when needing to bounce back after being humiliated (again) at the home of football six days earlier.

But Swans coach John Longmire knows full well that a suitable response against the Power would keep the critics at bay. On face value, it would seem a pretty straightforward task. A deeper dive reveals Port have won their past six encounters against Sydney.

One thing that Sydney will look to exploit with their bold ball movement is Port’s flimsy defence. It was atrocious after half-time against Adelaide and unless addressed, more pain is in store.

VERDICT: Sydney by 1-39 points

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SUNDAY

Essendon v GWS, Marvel Stadium, 12.10pm

Quite rightly frustrated by overzealous umpiring in a narrow loss to Carlton, GWS get presented with an opportunity to level up their win-loss record against an opponent many thought would occupy a similar spot on the ladder to them for most of the year.

The Giants haven’t been terrible in losses to West Coast and the Blues and will again look to captain Toby Greene, boasting nine goals from the opening three games, to set the standard.

As for the Bombers, their slow start against St Kilda proved telling. The input thus far of both Darcy Parish and Will Setterfield has been pleasing, as has their ability to overcome the absence of spearhead Peter Wright.

VERDICT: Essendon by 1-24 points

West Coast v Melbourne, Optus Stadium, 3.20pm

Adam Simpson could only laugh at stages whilst patrolling West Coast’s interchange area during last Sunday’s western derby. It was either that or cry as he witnessed injured player after injured player make his way to the boundary line.

The Eagles were undeniably gallant, but the stark reality is they now have to soldier on without several high-class performers. And the task awaiting them this weekend — Melbourne — is a daunting one.

The Demons have bolstered their scoring options and hit town to play at a venue they have nothing but good memories of fresh off a mauling of Sydney. This could get really ugly for the hosts.

VERDICT: Melbourne to win by 60+ points

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MONDAY

Geelong v Hawthorn, MCG, 1.20pm

Congratulations to Hawthorn on winning their first match for 2023. A vulnerable North Melbourne however is completely different gravy to a Geelong unit, that while still winless, has a major role to play in the home-and-away campaign.

The Cats started briskly enough opposed to Gold Coast, but were then unable to subdue the run and dare of the Suns. The work rate we became accustomed to throughout the 16-game winning streak of 2022 was nowhere to be seen.

It can be dangerous to expect a quality outfit to simply flick the switch and recapture its best form. But that’s what we’re doing here with Geelong.

VERDICT: Geelong by 1-39 points

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