Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 21

Posted on August 9, 2018 | Posted by Digby Beacham

FRIDAY

Essendon v St Kilda, Etihad Stadium, 5.50pm

Essendon had a great opportunity to stay alive in the finals mix last weekend against Hawthorn, only to be let down by some self-inflicted wounds and an inability to stem the bleeding. They freewheeled as they like to do, but couldn’t harness the Hawks’ ball movement and scoring.

That is unlikely to be an issue here given the problems St Kilda have had moving the ball efficiently and then capitalising on the chances once the ball has found its way inside the attacking 50m. Saints coach Alan Richardson was scathing of his players’ failure to hold their ground when the Western Bulldogs surged last Saturday night. There will be a response, but it’s difficult to see how they overpower the Bombers.

VERDICT: Essendon by 23 points

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SATURDAY

Hawthorn v Geelong, MCG, 11.45am

Three of the past four matches between these two sides have been decided by a grand total of six points. On what we have seen in the past month and how the ladder is situated with finals fast approaching, it would take a brave person to suggest a blow-out.

Geelong’s premier performers, save for Tom Hawkins in his battle with Alex Rance, couldn’t have performed any better last Friday night against Richmond and they still came up short, albeit narrowly. A repeat display would well and truly stretch the neck of Hawthorn, who have quietly climbed the table with three successive wins.

What we did see against Essendon last weekend was a Hawks team showing some frailties defensively, but also one very comfortable to take the game on, knowing full well that its firepower was sufficient to get the job done. Tom Mitchell continues to operate at a high standard and Scott Selwood is likely to handed the unenviable job of curbing his influence.

VERDICT: Geelong by 7 points

Gold Coast v Richmond, Metricon Stadium, 12.10pm

Gold Coast officials, namely Mark Evans, talked the talk in the lead-up to last Sunday’s game against Melbourne. It’s fair to say the Suns players didn’t walk the walk. And if they struggled to trouble the Demons at any stage, it’s difficult to see how they can cause Richmond coach Damien Hardwick and his team any headaches.

The Suns will be boosted by the return from suspension of Steven May, but the overall depth of the Richmond midfield and their organised back line, led superbly by Alex Rance, David Astbury and Nick Vlastuin, will surely be too much for the Suns to handle. The football should live in the Tigers’ forward half and that spells big trouble.

VERDICT: Richmond by 65 points

Port Adelaide v West Coast, Adelaide Oval, 2.35pm

Port Adelaide have had their issues with West Coast in the past and that is less than ideal for Ken Hinkley and his players as they look to nail down a finals berth. The loss to Adelaide last weekend only raises the stakes here, although the Eagles have endured a tumultuous week courtesy of Andrew Gaff’s moment of madness in the western derby.

The Eagles were too powerful for Port when they met earlier this year, but that game featured Nic Naitanui and Gaff, two critical cogs in the midfield machine. Their absence and a fierce desire from the hosts to make a strong statement around the contests will ask a lot of the Eagles, who are also missing dual Coleman medallist Josh Kennedy.

Perhaps the best thing for West Coast after the week they’ve had is to get away, spend time together and adopt the age-old “us against them mentality”. It has worked for many teams over many years and coach Adam Simpson will be chasing any advantage he can get in what is certain to be a hostile environment.  Importantly for West Coast, one area that does remain intact is their defence and though Port scored freely opposed to the Crows, that hasn’t been the case for much of the year.

VERDICT: West Coast by 10 points

Collingwood v Brisbane, Etihad Stadium, 5.25pm

Collingwood continue to soldier on bravely in the face of crippling injuries which are jeopardising their top-four, indeed their top-eight, aspirations. Their courage indisputable, they are going to need to be efficient to ensure their path to the finals remains on track.

There might be a gulf between the sides in wins and losses and ladder positions, but Brisbane could well be the best 4-15 side in recent memory. They have been in numerous games this season, only to come up short through a lack of experience and composure, as was the case last weekend at the Gabba against North Melbourne. Despite being young, Brisbane show no signs of hitting the wall.

Etihad Stadium suits their run-and-gun style and their willingness to take the game on will be countered by Collingwood’s attempt to defend stoutly and slow everything down to best suit their game plan. The Magpies failed to do that in their earlier meeting this season, but still emerged narrow victors. Even in the absence of several quality performers, the likes of Scott Pendlebury, Steele Sidebottom, Brodie Grundy, Jack Crisp, Taylor Adams and Will Hoskin-Elliott continue to shine through.

VERDICT: Collingwood by 19 points

GWS v Adelaide, UNSW, 5.25pm

Greater Western Sydney remain in the mix for a top-two finish, a remarkable situation given their issues in May that jeopardised their very finals participation. They were hard hit by injuries to key personnel during that period and were again dealt a cruel blow during their annihilation of Carlton last Sunday.

What they have though at present is some very important pieces in the jigsaw puzzle — Josh Kelly, Jeremy Cameron, Dylan Shiel, Stephen Coniglio, Callan Ward, Phil Davis, Rory Lobb and Heath Shaw. They will again be relied upon to pick up much of the slack against Adelaide, who the Giants have had their issues with over the years.

The Crows should be boosted by return of Richard Douglas and his presence helps gives the Crows an extra midfield-forward option to complement an already quality running division and an attack that has plenty of experience courtesy of Josh Jenkins, Eddie Betts, Taylor Walker and Tom Lynch. The Giants aren’t at their peak, but they remain a daunting proposition in the nation’s capital.

VERDICT: GWS by 20 points

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SUNDAY

North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs, Etihad Stadium, 11.10am

One week ago, this represented a comfortable assignment for North Melbourne. Through no fault of their own, that is not the case right now. The Western Bulldogs spotted St Kilda a significant lead last weekend, then gunned them down in their best display since upsetting Geelong at Etihad Stadium in late June.

That performance, spearheaded by a superb individual display from Marcus Bontempelli and the creative Jason Johannisen, will have caught the attention of the Kangaroos, who need to keep winning to be assured of qualifying for the finals. It was the case a fortnight ago when they needed to upset West Coast, a telling win followed by a narrow victory over Brisbane at the Gabba.

The likelihood of Shaun Higgins returning after missing last week following a minor knee procedure is a huge boost, while Jarrad Waite should be better for the run. The Kangaroos pride themselves on their contested capabilities and if they hold their ground in the clinches, they should be able to get the game on their terms.

VERDICT: North Melbourne by 18 points

Melbourne v Sydney, MCG, 1.20pm

It’s taking time, but Melbourne are slowly but surely converting their critics. A finals berth, their first since 2006, is within touching distance. A victory here against their nemesis Sydney would virtually assure them of September participation.

Both sides have 12 wins to their name, but there is a bit more to like about the way the Demons are tracking opposed to the Swans, who dodged a bullet against Collingwood at the SCG last Saturday night. Melbourne have tightened up their back line in recent weeks and continue to be highly effective inside the centre square and around the clearances.

Holding sway in the most important part of the ground can be attributed to the dominance of Max Gawn. He looms as a major issue for Callum Sinclair, who is competent and enjoying a good year, yet isn’t in the elite big man category. Lance Franklin looms large, as he does every week. He kicked six of Sydney’s 11 goals last round and the Demons will be well aware that short-circuiting his supply is critical.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 29 points

Fremantle v Carlton, Optus Stadium, 2.40pm

Andrew Gaff and a crippling injury list. Those two factors last weekend — Gaff’s blow on Andrew Brayshaw and Greater Western Sydney’s ever-expanding casualty ward — enabled Fremantle and Carlton to escape fierce scrutiny for their obvious failings.

The Dockers were again terrible, this time against West Coast, while Carlton were opened up by the Giants, even when they were reduced to less than 18 players on the ground. There is no denying the Dockers and Blues are young, but the amount of errors, both skill and decision making, that are committed consistently have caused their respective supporters plenty of consternation.

Stephen Hill joins wounded teammates Nat Fyfe, Aaron Sandilands, Connor Blakely, Joel Hamling and Andrew Brayshaw on the sidelines, but the Dockers still have the advantage of Optus Stadium to lean on.

VERDICT: Fremantle by 27 points

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