Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 18

Posted on July 12, 2024July 12, 2024 | Posted by Digby Beacham

FRIDAY

Collingwood v Geelong, MCG, 5.40pm

Chris Scott tells it as it is, therefore when he spoke this week about Geelong’s last six quarters of football being some of the best they have produced in 2024, it pays to take note.

The Cats overran Essendon in the second half of round 16 and then obliterated Hawthorn at GMHBA Stadium last Saturday evening. The performances, featuring more flexibility with positional changes of key personnel, give the impression Geelong are building for another tilt.

Conversely, Collingwood appear a bit suspect. Back-to-back losses and a lack of consistency at selection due to injuries, is proving problematic. We know their best is magnificent, but it has been a little while since we’ve seen it.

VERDICT: Geelong to win

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SATURDAY

Sydney v North Melbourne, SCG, 11.45am

There have been a couple of distractions this week from a Sydney viewpoint — Isaac Heeney’s drawn-out process at the AFL Tribunal and appeals board and Dean Cox’s name being linked strongly to the vacant West Coast coaching position.

It’s not an ideal situation, nor is the fact the Swans have had to stomach two consecutive narrow defeats to Fremantle and St Kilda. Considering how dominant they have been thus far in 2024, it would be a brave person to flag a third straight loss.

North Melbourne notched win No.2 for the year against Gold Coast and are stronger for this contest with the availability of George Wardlaw after a fortnight out with concussion.

VERDICT: Sydney to win by 40 points or more

Hawthorn v Fremantle, UTAS, 11.45am

Hawthorn at their Tasmanian fortress or Fremantle as they remain well and truly in the hunt for a top-two berth and two home finals at Optus Stadium during September.

That is the dilemma for tipsters here, with the Hawks regaining skipper James Sicily (shoulder) but having to manufacture a winning total minus Jack Ginnivan (leg), Mitch Lewis (knee) and Jack Gunston (managed). It is a tough ask against the organised defence of Fremantle.

But the Dockers will need to be on red-alert here and be prepared to get their hands dirty. They failed on both fronts against the Western Bulldogs last month and paid a heavy price. If they’re dialed in, they have the formlines and game plan to post a critical away victory.

VERDICT: Fremantle to win

Western Bulldogs v Carlton, Marvel Stadium, 2.35pm

Both the Western Bulldogs and Carlton had their share of admirers entering last weekend. Then came a horror four-quarter display from the Bulldogs and a dozy half of football from the Blues that led to an unexpected defeat to GWS.

The need for redemption is real. The Bulldogs’ bid to achieve that will be aided by the return of spark plug Cody Weightman, although he will be operating in a forward line without the concussed Aaron Naughton.

As for the Blues, Mitch McGovern (injured) misses, as does Orazio Fantasia (omitted). In captain Patrick Cripps’ 200th game, Carlton fans are entitled to think they’ll get a response from their side this weekend.

VERDICT: Carlton to win

Adelaide v St Kilda, Adelaide Oval, 5.30pm

Matthew Nicks is an unashamed admirer of Izak Rankine. That said, the Adelaide coach would have every right to be furious at his brilliant playmaker for sniping Brandon Starcevich last weekend, resulting in a four-match suspension.

Whilst it is expected he will coach into 2025, Nicks is not guaranteed to be at the helm beyond this year. Not having access to Rankine for a month when a premiership coach in Adam Simpson is out of a job is not ideal.

Nor is the fact St Kilda hit town believing they can continue their resurgence after stopping Sydney in their tracks in round 17. The Saints only just went under to Brisbane recently and so too did Adelaide. This feels a venue game.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 1-24 points

Melbourne v Essendon, MCG, 5.30pm

A week after getting some respite (and a much-needed win) against West Coast, Melbourne face up to an opponent that is occupying a spot inside the top eight many expected the Demons would be in possession of at this stage of the season.

Essendon still have their doubters, but they are diminishing by the week. The Bombers stood Collingwood a head start and gunned them down last Friday night and return to the MCG brimming with confidence and perhaps also counting their good luck.

Not only are the Demons missing Christian Petracca, they are now without inspirational captain Max Gawn because of an ankle injury. It is an audition the Bombers simply must nail.

VERDICT: Essendon to win

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SUNDAY

Gold Coast v Port Adelaide, People First Stadium, 11.10am

Is it as simple as Gold Coast back on home soil equates to a Gold Coast victory? To most, it is exactly that simple. For Suns coach Damien Hardwick, it better be.

Narrow losses to St Kilda and North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium have cast doubt on the legitimacy of Gold Coast and only raises the stakes for each match at People First Stadium. Port Adelaide have their own concerns, although they make the trek to the Glitter Strip off the back of a dominant four-quarter effort against the Western Bulldogs.

Charlie Dixon returns to cover the suspended Mitch Georgiades. Throughout his coaching career, Hardwick has worried more about what he’s got at his disposal rather than the opposition’s strengths. Does he adopt the same mindset against a Port midfield boasting Zak Butters, Connor Rozee and Jason Horne-Francis?

VERDICT: Gold Coast to win

Richmond v GWS, MCG, 1.20pm

It had been a while since we’d seen it, but we were given a timely reminder by GWS of what their best football looks like. It’s at a level that even the better sides in the competition struggle to match. Just ask Carlton.

Having piled on 14 goals to two in a blitz that set up last round’s victory, the Giants are presented with a wonderful opportunity to torment the injury-depleted Richmond and consolidate their spot in the top eight.

The Tigers have a crack, but lack class and experience. And while GWS coach Adam Kingsley isn’t working with a full deck of cards in regards to availability of players, he has a far stronger hand than his Tigers counterpart Adem Yze.

VERDICT: GWS by 25 points or more

West Coast v Brisbane, Optus Stadium, 2.40pm

Life post-Adam Simpson begins on Sunday when Jarrad Schofield assumes control of West Coast for the first of seven games. Not a great deal of expectation comes with Schofield’s appointment considering how bad the Eagles have performed, but a greater level of commitment from the players is a must.

And if recent history is any guide, it will come. Caretaker coaches can get a “sugar-hit” … something the Eagles will desperately need to counter a Brisbane outfit which is climbing the ladder.

But the Lions are minus defenders Brandon Starcevich and Jack Payne through injury. It is the other end of the ground however, where Brisbane look to have an undeniable advantage in the absence of Jeremy McGovern.

VERDICT: Brisbane by 1-39 points

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