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Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 18

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

FRIDAY

St Kilda v Richmond, Etihad Stadium, 5.50pm

St Kilda have taken some good strides forward in the past month, but their improvement is about to face the ultimate test. Richmond will be stinging after their loss to Greater Western Sydney last Saturday night and determined to avoid being blitzed by the Saints as they were in the corresponding match last season.

The Tigers had their opportunities against GWS, but were wasteful in front of goal. Importantly, they return home to Victoria, having lost all four interstate assignments this year. The efficiency around the stoppages we have come to expect from Richmond wasn’t prevalent last weekend and it is an area where they do have an advantage here, even if the Saints bring their A-game.

The Saints have been able to impact the scoreboard more in recent weeks and will take heart from the fact they did stretch the neck of Richmond earlier in the season when they weren’t at the level they are now. That said, Richmond on the rebound is a scary proposition and they still defend superbly.

VERDICT: Richmond by 23 points

SATURDAY

Collingwood v North Melbourne, MCG, 11.45am

Mason Cox and Ben Jacobs. If at the start of the season they were labelled players critically important to their respective side’s chances, many would have scoffed. However, the evidence suggests that is very much the case.

Collingwood sadly lacked the marking prowess of Cox against West Coast last Sunday and the absence of Jacobs from the midfield left North, not for the first time this season, exposed through the midfield, which in turn had their back line under the pump at the hands of a Sydney side which had been struggling to score.

Both the Magpies and Kangaroos will be hoping Cox (soreness) and Jacobs (concussion symptoms) are available for a contest that will shape the finals aspirations of both sides. The Magpies had won seven in a row before falling at the hands of the Eagles and that form should be good enough against the Kangaroos, who aren’t at the level they were in the first half of the year.

VERDICT: Collingwood by 20 points

Sydney v Gold Coast, SCG, 12.10pm

There have been times this season when Sydney have looked anything but a premiership contender. On other occasions, they have defied the odds like only they can and shown there is still plenty to give.

Indeed, their effort to overcome North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium last weekend without Jarrad McVeigh, Dan Hannebery, Kieren Jack and Heath Grundy, and losing skipper Josh Kennedy during the game with a back injury, was full of merit. It was the Swans of old and a repeat performance will be enough to take down Gold Coast, who have lost their past 11 matches and head to the SCG with a youthful line-up. History says young opposition and the SCG aren’t a great mix.

VERDICT: Sydney by 45 points

Essendon v Fremantle, Etihad Stadium, 2.35pm

Essendon had life breathed into their finals hopes last weekend with a string of results that went their way, most importantly their victory at Metricon Stadium against Gold Coast. Though inaccurate kicking cost the Bombers a prized chance to boost their percentage, they remain in the finals conversation ahead of a match they should be expecting to win.

Fremantle were a lot better against Port Adelaide in a defensive arm-wrestle. It is the way Ross Lyon-coached sides perform at their best and he will again be looking to stifle the Bombers, especially off half-back where the likes of Adam Saad and Conor McKenna can be dangerous running through the centre square.

David Mundy and Lachie Neale set the tone for Fremantle at the stoppages last weekend, but they are going to need a few more allies opposed to Zach Merrett, Dyson Heppell, Devon Smith and co. The Bombers’ chances are also boosted by the expected return from injury of goalsneak Orazio Fantasia.

VERDICT: Essendon by 18 points

Brisbane v Adelaide, Gabba, 5.25pm

Brisbane have leapt out of the ground in recent weeks, stringing together win after win after win. The victories vindicate the positivity that has been surrounding the club for most part of the year. This is a side on the move.

Just whether the Lions are capable of standing toe-to-toe with an Adelaide side that has a sniff of September remains to be seen. But the absence of Taylor Walker through suspension deprives the Crows of their pulse, the man who has the ability to ignite his teammates. But in Josh Jenkins, Tom Lynch, Eddie Betts and Lachlan Murphy, they have enough firepower to trouble Brisbane.

That said, the Lions are riding high, having thrashed Fremantle, Carlton and Hawthorn in successive weeks, with the spread of contributors a highlight of their wins. Dayne Beams might well be in career-best form, while the young talent at Chris Fagan’s disposal is undeniably exciting.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 9 points

Geelong v Melbourne, GMHBA Stadium, 5.25pm

The football world is waiting for Melbourne to claim a big scalp and this contest represents a golden opportunity. But the ongoing absence of Jack Viney from the midfield and Michael Hibberd’s quad injury at training midweek is likely to ensure the wait continues.

At their best, Geelong are capable of going toe-to-toe with just about any side in the competition. But they can mix their form and their effort against Adelaide last Thursday night was disappointing. Their lack of composure and disposal coming out of defence was stark. Expect leaders Joel Selwood, Patrick Dangerfield and Gary Ablett to rise to the occasion of a big match before their home fans.

As for Melbourne, much will again depend on Max Gawn. The All-Australian ruckman is in outstanding form at present, not just in the centre square and around the stoppages, but also with his ability to drift back into defence. His tap work last week against the Western Bulldogs was straight out of the rucking manual.

VERDICT: Geelong by 18 points

SUNDAY

Carlton v Hawthorn, Etihad Stadium, 11.10am

Hawthorn might be a length or two off the top-eight sides, perhaps even more now that James Sicily is sidelined with a broken wrist. But they are panels ahead of Carlton, who are banged up and struggling to remain competitive in matches as the season progresses.

The Hawks lost to Brisbane for the second time this season last weekend, with their inability to handle the Lions’ intent at the coalface significant in the final result. The poor performance came a day after Carlton were shown up by St Kilda at Etihad Stadium, a heavy loss that would have been worse had it not been for the lion-hearted display of Patrick Cripps. If Hawthorn are to play finals, this is a must-win.

VERDICT: Hawthorn by 32 points

West Coast v Western Bulldogs, Optus Stadium, 1.20pm

There are very few gimmes in the current era of football (Carlton aside), but this is a match which sits up perfectly for West Coast as they prepare to finetune their approach towards September without Nic Naitanui.

Scott Lycett will be handed the No.1 ruck role and how he responds will be critical to the Eagles’ premiership claims. Having been in the system for several seasons and deep into this current campaign off an injury-free summer, there is no reason to suggest he won’t revel in the responsibility.

West Coast’s win over Collingwood last Sunday was one of their more even displays of the season, highlighted by all lines making telling contributions. Such a spread is something that Luke Beveridge would kill for at present. His squad is banged up and young, leaving it at the mercy of rivals in the course of games, especially the better ones. West Coast are definitely that.

VERDICT: West Coast by 44 points

Port Adelaide v GWS, Adelaide Oval, 2.40pm

Port Adelaide had ever so quietly climbed into the top four and were seemingly poised to challenge for a spot in the top two. Then came the horror show at Optus Stadium last Sunday. Not only did they cough up four premiership points against Fremantle, All-Australian ruckman Paddy Ryder (hip flexor) and Robbie Gray (concussion) were injured.

The defeat saw them exit the top half of the top eight and now they have to front up to an inspired Greater Western Sydney outfit that is playing at a level which closely resembles its form late in 2016 when it stormed into the finals and monstered arch rivals Sydney in an historic qualifying final.

The Giants have sufficient class to match it with Port through the midfield and though Dawson Simpson isn’t a blue-blood, he competes and is seriously big. With no Ryder, the Power will likely look to Justin Westhoff and Charlie Dixon to share the ruck duties, possibly even Jack Watts, which in turn takes away some of their potency in attack.

VERDICT: GWS by 11 points

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