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Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 14

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

THURSDAY

Hawthorn v Essendon, Adelaide Oval, 2.40pm

D-Day has come for Essendon. There is no tomorrow. The Bombers have left themselves in such a predicament that they simply have to win out from here to have any hope of playing finals.

As such, it wasn’t a great shock to see Essendon recall spearhead Joe Daniher for his first game in more than 400 days off a preparation best described as limited. What impact the angular left-footer can have against an organised Hawthorn back line, albeit one down on soldiers, will be intriguing.

The Hawks came up short against Port Adelaide last weekend after a spirited contest. Alastair Clarkson had a super evening in the box and you suspect he will relish the chance to lock horns with both John Worsfold and Ben Rutten.

VERDICT: Essendon by 12 points

SAME GAME COMBO: Bombers Win + Merrett / D Shiel / McGrath / Parish all get 15+ disposals @ $2.05

Richmond v West Coast, Metricon Stadium, 5.10pm

It’s taken longer than what was initially forecast, but we are finally getting to see West Coast and Richmond lock horns in a match that will have serious ramifications on the make-up of the top eight.

From a purists viewpoint, the decision by the AFL to reschedule this game has come at a good time — the Eagles are airborne and Richmond continue to play at a high level in the absence of genuine stars.

The Tigers received some good news at the AFL Tribunal this week when Tom Lynch was cleared and his contribution alongside Jack Riewoldt will ask many questions of the Eagles defence. At the other end of the ground, Josh Kennedy and Jack Darling loom as major obstacles, as do Liam Ryan and Jamie Cripps.

VERDICT: Richmond by 8 points

SAME GAME COMBO: Bolton / Kelly both get 20+ disposals + Cotchin / Sheed both get 15+ disposals @ $3.25

FRIDAY

Western Bulldogs v Geelong, Metricon Stadium, 5.50pm

The Western Bulldogs’ finals aspirations looked a little grim at half-time of last weekend’s game against Melbourne. Luke Beveridge’s men then came out and played arguably the best 60 minutes of football we have seen from them all year.

They now need to replicate that — perhaps go up another notch or two — to continue their march towards the post-season. Geelong are indeed the real deal. The Cats have all the weapons and experience to make amends for their preliminary final fail of 2019. Being relatively healthy also doesn’t hurt.

The Bulldogs will look to flip the ball around and play a high-handball game, whereas the Cats will be eager to control the tempo, spread the ground and navigate their way through the Bulldogs’ zone into attack. It should be a cracker.

VERDICT: Geelong by 12 points

SAME GAME COMBO: Cats win + Guthrie / Menegola / Duncan all get 20+ disposals @ 3.50

SATURDAY

Port Adelaide v Sydney, Adelaide Oval, 11.45am

Port Adelaide showed a propensity earlier in the season to kick big totals. Though their offensive output has waned somewhat, they aren’t going to require a massive score to take care of Sydney.

As good as they were a week earlier against Greater Western Sydney, the Swans were putrid against Fremantle last Saturday night. Their lack of dare and a dysfunctional forward line was stark and unless that has been rectified in the space of seven days, trouble awaits.

The Power will have young bull Sam Powell-Pepper available after he beat a dangerous tackle charge at the tribunal, a result which is encouraging for club and player given the form he is in.

VERDICT: Port Adelaide by 29 points

Fremantle v GWS, Optus Stadium, 2.35pm

Fremantle have a perfect opportunity to round out their home stretch in style with a win over the vulnerable Greater Western Sydney. If you said that a month ago, more than the odd eyebrow would have been raised.

But the Giants are floundering badly, the lack of intent from high-priced spearhead Jeremy Cameron summing up their plight. The absence of Callan Ward (finger) is a further blow for the visitors, who did finally show some grit after half-time against West Coast.

The Dockers have displayed grit for most of the season, thanks mainly to a rock-solid defensive unit led by Luke Ryan in the absence of several quality teammates.

VERDICT: GWS by 8 points

Melbourne v St Kilda, Traeger Park, Alice Springs, 5.40pm

Melbourne butchered a chance to strengthen their finals hopes against the Western Bulldogs, but they still remain in the mix. As do St Kilda, who are viewed as a bit wobbly despite losing to Brisbane by less than a kick.

At their best, the Saints have the capacity to kick a bag of goals quickly, as do Melbourne. But both teams can also go through periods in the course of games where their forward lines are starved of opportunities.

Melbourne have played one less match than the sixth-placed Saints and can close to within four points of them with a victory here. Though this game takes place at night, the expected clear conditions should suit the Saints’ dangerous talls in attack.

VERDICT: St Kilda by 16 points

SUNDAY

Carlton v Collingwood, Gabba, 1.35pm

Seemingly consigned to the role of spectators again at finals time less than a fortnight ago, Carlton are now daring to dream. And so they should.

The Blues are riding high after back-to-back wins over Fremantle and Gold Coast and would love nothing more than to enhance their claims while dealing Collingwood’s hopes a heavy blow. The Magpies found some form in the second half opposed to North Melbourne, but will need to make do in the short term minus Steele Sidebottom.

His absence, coupled with an extensive injury list, leaves the Magpies on shaky ground, especially with their lack of offensive firepower. The expected return of Brody Mihocek does help, however.

VERDICT: Carlton by 9 points

Gold Coast v North Melbourne, Metricon Stadium, 4.10pm

The end of the home-and-away season can’t come soon enough for both Gold Coast and North Melbourne.

Gold Coast’s first half against Carlton last Friday night was disastrous, as was the Kangaroos’ cautious approach in the final two quarters opposed to Collingwood. There is no denying both sides have some good young talent, but that young talent can often hit a wall in the second half of a campaign.

It is unlikely this will descend into a shootout, with the Suns’ home ground perhaps the factor in tipping the scales their way.

VERDICT: Gold Coast by 14 points

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