Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 1

Posted on March 16, 2023March 28, 2023 | Posted by Digby Beacham

THURSDAY

Richmond v Carlton, MCG, 4.20pm

For years, the decision by the AFL to use Carlton in the season opener was mocked. Not anymore. The Blues deserve their place on the big stage and will feel this match against Richmond is very much within reach.

The absence of Sam Walsh is a big blow for the Blues, but they are considerably healthier than Richmond, who will be without the services of key defender Robbie Tarrant. Not flushed with tall defensive options, the Tigers will be on red alert regarding the threat posed by Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow.

At the other end of the ground, Richmond have their own weapons, in particular Tom Lynch, while the addition of GWS pair Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper is undeniably important.

VERDICT: Richmond by 1-39 points

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FRIDAY

Geelong v Collingwood, MCG, 4.40pm

Collingwood were always going to be installed as outsiders against Geelong. That happens when your opponent found a way to get you in both meetings the previous season and stretched their winning streak to 16 with a devastating grand final display.

But the Magpies get a look. They are presented with a fast track in perfect conditions, assisting them in their desire to move the ball quickly. And with Tom Hawkins, Jack Henry, Sam Menegola and Jake Kolodjashnij to miss through injury, the Cats don’t resemble the feared outfit of 2022.

But they have added Jack Bowes, Ollie Henry and Tanner Bruhn, all former first-round draft selections. Will they need time to settle in?

VERDICT: Collingwood to win

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SATURDAY

North Melbourne v West Coast, Marvel Stadium, 10.45am

In a round where opinions are divided in several matches, this game might just be the hardest one to decipher.

West Coast have enjoyed a far more fruitful summer than 12 months ago, but we learnt yesterday Elliot Yeo (calf) would miss, compounding the unavailability of experienced ruckman Nic Naitanui. The Kangaroos aren’t the healthiest group going around either, but do have the advantage of playing at home.

The big unknown is how much impact Alastair Clarkson has straight away? North will benefit enormously from his wisdom and experience, but there is still much to be done at Arden Street.

VERDICT: West Coast to win

Port Adelaide v Brisbane, Adelaide Oval, 1.35pm

Port Adelaide stuttered to a 0-5 start to open 2022. Their season was as good as over from that point. Yes, they did rallly but they were chasing their tails for the most part and it was little surprise they missed the finals.

Obviously, they can ill afford to be as tardy out of the gates this year. A match-up with Brisbane, seen by many as a top-four lock, is less than ideal. Ditto, the Power’s pre-season stint in WA against West Coast and Fremantle.

The Lions cannot call on Dayne Zorko, Darcy Gardiner and Callum Ah Chee, but look to have sufficient depth and class to get the job done against Port.

VERDICT: Brisbane to win

Melbourne v Western Bulldogs, MCG, 4.25pm

It’s hard to believe it was only 18 months ago that these two teams squared off in a history-making grand final at Optus Stadium.

Both were expected to be prominent in 2022 as a result of that, but failed to flatter. Melbourne fell by the wayside after a brilliant first half of last season and the Bulldogs’ frailties defensively were exposed far too often.

The Demons have looked the pick of the sides on the east coast in relation to how they have prepared for 2023 and that fitness and sharpness is expected to see them hit the ground running. Even injury concerns around Steven May won’t prevent them starting favourites against a Bulldogs side intent on loading up in attack.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 1-39 points

Gold Coast v Sydney, Heritage Bank Stadium, 5pm

Sporting scars that will linger for a while or using the failure as a learning experience which will propel them to premiership success down the track? That is the great unknown surrounding Sydney’s meek effort in the 2022 grand final.

Their list profile would suggest they are poised to again contend. The same doesn’t apply to Gold Coast, which is fine. But there needs to be a time when the Suns emerge as a genuine finals outfit. And that time is now.

The return from a ruptured anterior cruciate ligament of spearhead Ben King is timely. We shouldn’t underestimate the skillset the angular youngster possesses.

VERDICT: Sydney to win OR either side to win by 15 points or less (including draw)

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SUNDAY

GWS v Adelaide, Giants Stadium, 10.10am

Expect to see GWS play a far more attacking brand of football in 2023. Is that going to see the Giants storm back into the finals? That would be a stretch, but new coach Adam Kingsley is a believer in letting his players express themselves.

It is an approach that Adelaide mentor Matthew Nicks will be well aware of. How the Crows handle an opponent that has handled them in arrogant fashion in recent encounters is going to be fascinating.

Adelaide appear to have gone to another level over summer, but the proof will be in the pudding. They certainly look to have enough firepower forward of centre to trouble plenty of teams.

VERDICT: GWS by 1-39 points

Hawthorn v Essendon, MCG, 12.20pm

There is no denying that the two coaches involved here, Sam Mitchell (Hawthorn) and Brad Scott (Essendon), are going to earn their money.

From the Hawks’ perspective, it is because Mitchell has stripped this team right back. So much so that is bears little resemblance to the 2021 version coached by Alastair Clarkson. As for Essendon, Scott is at the helm courtesy of the club’s self-inflicted wounds for over a decade.

The Bombers are missing key personnel, notably Jake Stringer, but still look to have more overall class than the young Hawks.

VERDICT: Essendon -8.5 points at the line

St Kilda v Fremantle, Marvel Stadium, 1.40pm

Hold your nerve, trust the game plan, heed the advice coming down the line from the coaches’ box and take the opportunities when they present.

The above points could form a part of the pre-match planning from Fremantle ahead of this clash with a depleted St Kilda, now in the care (again) of Ross Lyon. Everyone knows Lyon’s football IQ is elite, as is his desire to implement a defence-first approach.

He will do his best to dirty this contest up. The Dockers themselves can defend and look to have the arsenal midfield and in attack to account for better teams than the Saints.

VERDICT: Fremantle -13.5 points at the line

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