Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Randwick Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

No less than 3 Group 1’s to be run at Randwick plus a great support card. We kick things off with a Midway which as per the weekly script looks a very open race. AGITA is back from 2140m last start when settling well back in the field after a poor getaway. Going on his third at Rosehill this trip three back. Poor gate for the lightly raced FLYING BANDIT however we’ve seen them win from anywhere in these races so anything is possible.

Numbers: 5 – 11 – 8 – 17

Suggested Bet: box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 2

First race of the 2yo season is for the males with the girls to follow in the next. All stepped out in the 2yo trial session on the Kensington track recently & I was a little surprised at how much vigour was on display, most heats if not all were run like full on races. RAGING FORCE didn’t clock the quickest time however he wasn’t too far off it & is one who did go to the line without being punished. NORTH ENGLAND looks a typical early season 2yo, speedy with stamina & in the right 2yo stable. TUSCANY ran the equal fastest time of the session, must be included. Obviously, market moves will be all important.

Numbers: 7 – 5 – 10 – 4

Suggested Bet: RAGING FORCE EACH-WAY (small bet).

RACE 3

Much bigger field to tackle the fillies version. Not a good draw at all for heat winner MEMO however I’ll take the punt she can figure in the finish with an ounce of luck. She settled back in the field coming right down the outside pulling clear late to win her trial without being overly pressured. Can she go back & do the same on race day, hopefully yes! ICARIAN DREAM won her heat in cruisy fashion & the time was sound, draws well, should run well. BEL MERCI closed off nicely to beat all bar the winner in her heat.

Numbers: 8 – 6 – 3 – 9

Suggested Bet: MEMO EACH-WAY (small bet).

RACE 4

Open race where I’m going with SWIFTFALCON who resumed with a strong Flemington win coming from the back of the field to run over the leaders over 1400m. Only lightly raced he goes to the mile & note all his runs have produced fast closing sectionals, he really should lap up the additional distance. I’ll throw in CHINA SEA at odds, just spotted him getting going late first up, only lightly raced he might have some ability. No luck for JUST PARTY last start whilst PLEASURE ARTIST shows promise, steps up to something stronger today though.

Numbers: 3 – 8 – 2 – 10

Suggested Bet: SWIFT FALCON TO WIN (small bet).

RACE 5

Couple of staying types resuming here plus a few who do find it difficult to win. I’ll head right down the bottom & put the second-up mare CHICA MOJITO on top. Liked the way she closed off when resuming at Rosehill last month making good ground along the fence. Decent weight drop (6kg) she’ll appreciate the additional 100m. Stablemate SNOWMAN gets J. Mac to steer from the inside gate, should be peaking third-up & has won out to 1800m so no issues with the distance. BENAUD & LITTLE MIX far from hopeless.

Numbers: 12 – 10 – 1 – 3

Suggested Bet: CHICA MOJITO TO WIN (small bet).

RACE 6

The Group 1 Flight Stakes will see the unbeaten filly AUTUMN GLOW so around in red figures. She’s no doubt top shelf & will lap up the mile however there’s no value there for rank & file punters, I’m going to take her on at the short odds. At the odds on offer I have to have something on SNOW IN MAY who ran second behind AUTUMN GLOW in the 1400m Tea Rose a fortnight back. That race wasn’t run hard with on pacers favoured (AG sat outside the leader), SNOW IN MAY came from off pace clocking a slick late sectional making good late ground, can only suggest the mile will suit her just as well. LADY SHENANDOAH resumed with a very good 1400m win, she’ll measure up ok. Ditto POWERS OF OPAL who is well worth a small saver at big odds.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 4 – 9

Suggested Bet: SNOW IN MAY EACH-WAY.

RACE 7

Cracking Group 2 with three Everest hopefuls to lock horns (1, 2 & 7). Confident GIGA KICK or BELLA NIPOTINA will come out on top & I’m going to lean to the former whose recent trial victory suggested he had improved plenty off the unplaced first up outing. Yes, he needs to run well here, just a so-so performance will see the jury out Everest wise, I’m confident he’ll stand up! BELLA NIPOTINA is just a super mare who always gives her best, terrific first up she’ll enjoy the additional 200m. Big watch on THINK ABOUT IT who of course is the defending Everest champion, he didn’t fire during the Brisbane winter, trial was sound, in very good hands.

Numbers: 1 – 7 – 2 – 8

Suggested Bet: GIGA KICK/BELLA NIPOTINA TO WIN.

RACE 8

Typically open Metropolitan. I’m with ATHABASCAN who follows the same path to last prep when going 1600m first up & 2000m second up before getting to 2400m as is the case today. Liked his fresh run making ground, latest was a pass however this is where he’ll be peaking & he holds a good record here on the track & over this trip. LAND LEGEND should be ready to hit his straps third-up as well, the longer distance is definitely what he’s now looking for. FIRST LIGHT was a big improver last start, in form now & gets in very light at the weights.

Numbers: 7 – 14 – 15 – 21

Suggested Bet: ATHABASCAN EACH-WAY (small bet).

RACE 9

Not an ideal draw for ROYAL PATRONAGE in a very competitive Group 1 Epsom however we all know he’ll go forward, whether or not he leads remains to be seen however he’s going to be up in a prominent position hopefully with some cover. Terrific first up in the Tramway, peaked very late behind Fangirl at weight-for age second-up he’s going to be right at his peak for this. REDEINER won this race last year, thought the tactics were poor with him first up, jumped well didn’t push on ended up 3 wide no cover & wound up a close 4th, very good effort. KINTYRE is a terrific lightweight chance, CEOLWULF back from 2000m to the mile, not sure about that.

Numbers: 2 – 5 – 18 – 7

Suggested Bet: ROYAL PATRONAGE EACH-WAY/SAVERS AT ODDS REDEINER/KINTYRE.

RACE 10

OSTRAKA was extremely impressive winning first up at Rosehill & the punters certainly didn’t forget to back him. He ripped home from the back of the field running right over the top of his rivals in a race which really wasn’t run to suit. Fitter, 1000m further won’t be a problem, he can win again! CORNICHE is yet to win fresh however has placed 2 of his 3 attempts, plenty of weight however keep in mind he ran right over the top of Think About It under no real pressure in his lead-up trial. FALL FOR CINDY is a very capable type who can run well fresh.

Numbers: 4 – 1 – 6 – 21

Suggested Bet: OSTRAKA TO WIN.

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