Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Eagle Farm Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

Racing at Eagle Farm Saturday likely on wet ground with most of the rain falling on Thursday, just how much will decide the track condition, it’s crystal ball stuff at this early stage. (6) BUNDEENA & (7) SIMBU look the main hopes & they will carry light weights, they also map to settle close to each other. The former brings the stronger Sydney form lines which leans me his way however I’ll definitely be having a saver (7) SIMBU. (3) PARTY FOR TWO had excuses first up, this will be her second start for the Gollan stable, must include however she does need to show something today.

Numbers: 6 – 7 – 3 – 2

Suggested Bet: BACKING TOP TWO SELECTIONS TO WIN.

RACE 2

Plenty will depend upon the track condition which I hope is dry. I was super keen on (5) IMPERVIOUS first up here a fortnight back & she ran well considering she was held up twice in the straight & not all that much at home on the soft (7) ground. Not 100% convinced she wins with a clearer run however she goes very close & I don’t see the 1200m being of any concern. No knock whatsoever on nos.1, 2, 3 or 4, they are all in with a chance however have some negatives as well as positives & two are first up?

Numbers: 5 – 2 – 4 – 3

Suggested Bet: IMPERVIOUS EACH-WAY.

RACE 3

This week’s restricted distance affair is the usual lottery. The logical selection is the NSW visitor (4) PIGGYBACK from the Ciaron Maher stable who has been racing very consistently down south of late. Although yet to win beyond 2000m & facing 2206m today he stuck to his task well after breezing outside the leader last start (2000m), I don’t see the longer trip posing any issues. (10) BITOFTHEBLARNEY is in a purple patch of form winning or placing his past 4 starts, he led & fought on very well here last start & the drop back 200m can only work in his favour. (2) BENGAL BOY back in trip however definitely not out of it.

Numbers: 4 – 10 – 2 – 1

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 4

The unbeaten (6) WITHOUT PARALELL led at her first three victories before parking outside the speed her latest at Rosehill when bolting away with a Highway 3 weeks ago. Not sure she crosses here however either way I’m expecting her to still win the race as she has a ton of upside & looks a very promising mare destined for better races. Importantly within her 4 wins she’s won on all track conditions. I keep tipping (11) BEREZKA who is becoming very costly, beaten by (6) WITHOUT PARALELL two back she did race wide which was also the case at her last start. Today she draws in & will get her chance (aided by me jumping ship) however I’d still prefer her over further. I’d be surprised should the winner not come from that pair.

Numbers: 6 – 11 – 3 – 8

Suggested Bet: WITHOUT PARALLEL TO WIN.

RACE 5

Under the set weights conditions of this race last start winner (5) RAZORS is once again very well placed & his form this prep has been good which includes the last start win which was his first outing for the Jack Bruce yard. By the same token I just thought he’d had enough on the line & at the better odds will lean to the mare who chased him all the way home (13) MORE LOVE. She’s a model of consistency at her recent runs & draws a lot better than (5) RAZORS, weight wise she meets him 1.5kg better for the 0.75L defeat. (4) PRADO has found the line well at both outings this time in, he should be ready & will handle any ground thrown at him.

Numbers: 13 – 5 – 4 – 14

Suggested Bet: MORE LOVE EACH-WAY.

RACE 6

Keep coming back to the best horse in the race & that’s (1) CABOCHE who has been competitive in much stronger affairs & kept on the fresh side since winning here over this distance first up 5 weeks ago. Although he only ran down Chica Mojito he did so giving away weight & against the tempo of the race. Even with the additional 2kg on his back today he should still have these covered. Stablemate (2) CHRYSAOR is just impossible to catch, he was good in the same race two back before very ordinary dropping back 200m last start, out to the mile again helps. (5) GALIFIANAKIS & (10) NORTHERN DECREE can figure once again.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 5 – 10

Suggested Bet: CABOCHE TO WIN.

RACE 7

Happy to take the punt (6) JUST FLYING can handle the step up to 1835m here. His last start placing was a tidy effort (1600m) going forward tagging the leader (ran last) in a race with no pace on paper. That didn’t end up being the case with that leader racing very keenly setting it up for the closers, (6) JUST FLYING stuck it out well right to the line & finds himself with 3.5kg less today & Angela Jones jumps aboard. Spotted (1) FLASH AAH making ground here last start which was his first for over a month over an unsuitably short trip, reigning Ipswich Cup winner who will be strong late. 3, 4, 9 & 10 all some chance.

Numbers: 6 – 1 – 4 – 3

Suggested Bet: JUST FLYING TO WIN.

RACE 8

Big field at this early stage, max of 16 to run, will we get that many post scratchings? Suggest (13) BOOM SHOT should be ready to fire third run back from a break, tempo against first up yet wasn’t far away before making good ground again against the race shape here a fortnight back. Now he gets to 1400m drawn well & drops 4kg. Irish import (6) FORMAL DISPLAY has shown pace in both lead up trials winning & placing, he looks to have been set for a first up tilt, big market watch. (11) LARRIKIN ROGUE found the line well first-up, that’s his pattern though, if close enough he’s always a chance to get over the top late.

Numbers: 13 – 6 – 11 – 1

Suggested Bet: BOOM SHOT EACH-WAY/Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 9

(14) ABOUT TO EXPLODE was never going to win first up in a race dominated in front by his stablemate Gospel Girl. He didn’t shirk his task though & holds a positive second-up record. Drawn the inside he’ll get a soft run however will need the gaps to open up in the straight as he’s a strong finisher who will require clear running & time to wind up. (7) MINTAKA LAD resumes, his fresh record is a good one however he just tends to run into bad luck more often than not, he’s right in this should things pan out though. 11, 15 & 17 all have genuine claims.

Numbers: 14 – 7 – 17 – 11

Suggested Bet: ABOUT TO EXPLODE EACH-WAY.

Market Market




Recent Articles