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Digby’s AFL Round 6 Preview

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs

Friday, Etihad Stadium 5.50pm

Coaches in most sports have for a long time been only too happy to declare that a good defensive side will shade an opponent equally proficient in offence, with the argument often raising its head during finals. It held true for a long time in the AFL. Then came Geelong under Mark Thompson and Chris Scott, and more recently Alastair Clarkson’s Hawthorn. Conversely, Ross Lyon’s St Kilda and Fremantle-coached outfits lamented what might have been. Clearly sides need to be able to defend, but they also must have an ability to impact the scoreboard when the opportunity presents.

In that sense, North Melbourne are entitled to feel comfortable against the Western Bulldogs. No side in 2016 has scored more than the Kangaroos, as evidenced by them topping the 100-point mark in all five games they have played. The Bulldogs, known for some time as an offensive-minded and fleet-of-foot side, defend better than any other rival, allowing just over 76 points a game. That said, this is their biggest test. No Robert Murphy, Jason Johannisen and Matt Suckling across half-back deprives them of experience, speed and precision exiting their back half. North’s potency is heavily reliant on tall trio Ben Brown, Jarrad Waite and Drew Petrie, but the likes of Brent Harvey, Shaun Higgins and Lindsay Thomas don’t need many opportunities to sting their opposition.

The Bulldogs have shown a tremendous ability to apply pressure and win the contested ball under second-year coach Luke Beveridge and the battle between their inside mids Mitch Wallis, Marcus Bontempelli, Koby Stevens and Tom Liberatore with the equally hard-nosed Kangaroos Ben Cunnington, Jack Ziebell and Andrew Swallow, could well determine which team wins the clearances. That North’s midfield operates at the feet of All-Australian ruckman Todd Goldstein, fresh off a best-afield display against Gold Coast, tips the contest ever so slightly in the ladder leaders favour.

VERDICT: North Melbourne by 9 points.

Melbourne v St Kilda

Saturday, Etihad Stadium 11.45am

Melbourne fans have every right to be excited about where their team is at. All going well, they should be able to rejoice even further in the aftermath of this contest. This is a match the in-form Demons should win, even taking into account their horrid history at Etihad Stadium and an equally alarming record of late against St Kilda. The added reason for optimism? Christian Petracca. The No.2 player taken in the 2014 national draft, Petracca was in line to play round one last season until he ruptured an anterior cruciate ligament at training in February.

A strong-bodied midfielder, Petracca wins his own footy and disposes it with undeniable class. Inject him into an on-ball division featuring Bernie Vince, Jack Viney, Nathan Jones, Dom Tyson and Tomas Bugg, not to mention the continual growth of Max Gawn as an elite ruckman, and it is little wonder the Demons were installed as favourites earlier in the week. St Kilda also have talented midfielders in Jack Steven, Leigh Montagna and Jack Steven, but they need greater support.

St Kilda coach Alan Richardson lamented his players’ lack of accountability against Greater Western Sydney last weekend, especially in the last quarter. His frustration was evident given how well they had performed a week earlier against Hawthorn in Launceston. Richardson will demand considerably more from his troops, indicating this could be a physical battle early. But the attacking mindset of Melbourne, who boast genuine  firepower forward of centre in Jack Watts, Jeff Garlett and Jesse Hogan, ensures they will be extremely hard to topple.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 21 points.

Adelaide v Fremantle

Saturday, Adelaide Oval 12.10pm

Ross Lyon has had his way with Adelaide in recent times. After narrowly losing to the Crows in the 2012 semifinal at AAMI Stadium, Fremantle have won their past four meetings. A feature of those victories has been a stout and efficient defence, conceding just 29 goals. Sadly for Lyon and Fremantle fans, those days are long gone. The Dockers are incapable of defending like a good side and possess a skill level befitting a Sunday amateur outfit.

And failing a meeting with Hawthorn in Launceston (that happens in a fortnight), Adelaide at Adelaide Oval is probably the worst assignment the bumbling Dockers could have in their current predicament. The Crows are 3-2, their two defeats being by narrow margins in Melbourne against North Melbourne and the Hawks. They boast a myriad of quality ball users, rebound with authority off half-back thanks in no small part to Rory Laird and Brodie Smith and their forward line strikes fear into the heart of all sides.

That Fremantle venture to SA without Michael Johnson, along with Nat Fyfe and Aaron Sandilands, is a massive concern. Taylor Walker, Josh Jenkins, Tom Lynch and Eddie Betts work brilliantly together and have all shown an ability to kick bags. Given the turnovers Fremantle commit when attempting to clear the ball from defence, this has the potential to get ugly — and fast. One wonders whether Cale Hooker would have re-signed with Essendon this week had Lyon been able to embrace the brand of football required to succeed in the modern game.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 59 points.

GWS v Hawthorn

Saturday, Spotless Stadium 2.35pm

How long can Hawthorn continue to dodge bullets? For three successive weeks, the Hawks have somehow clambered from the canvas to eke out three-point victories over the Western Bulldogs, St Kilda and Adelaide. There is always a slice of good fortune involved when winning a tight match, but there is a fair degree of good planning and on-field leadership. Clearly, the Hawks have that in spades and it might be just as well given the fresh challenge they face here.

Greater Western Sydney were really impressive in their home wins against Geelong and Port Adelaide, but there was an equal amount to like last weekend when they demolished St Kilda. Jeremy Cameron’s return was a long time coming, but he showed what he was capable of with a five-goal, bettering veteran teammate Steve Johnson’s four majors. Toby Greene has always been able to find the footy, but has never been accused of being a polished finisher. Yet he booted four goals also in an encouraging performance.

The Giants brought down Hawthorn in the corresponding match last season when the premiers were missing a few key soldiers. While Jarryd Roughead remains on the sidelines, they are healthier this time around and continue to be superbly led through the midfield by Sam Mitchell, Shaun Burgoyne and Luke Hodge. Small forwards Cyril Rioli and Paul Puopolo are also airborne at present. The Giants are coming fast and now have quality performers on all lines. But the Hawks remain the benchmarks and if they are at their best, will prevail.

VERDICT: Hawthorn by 14 points.

Geelong v Gold Coast

Saturday, Simonds Stadium 5.25pm

If Rodney Eade had hair, he would be well within his rights to pull it out. A 3-0 start to the season has quickly become 3-2 and now his wobbly Suns face the daunting assignment of taking on Geelong at Simonds Stadium without proven midfielder Michael Rischitelli (shoulder) and doubt surrounds Dion Prestia, who also a shoulder issue. Given Gold Coast are already missing David Swallow and Jaeger O’Meara with knee injuries, the prospect of Geelong ball magnets Patrick Dangerfield and Joel Selwood running amok is real.

The Cats were seriously challenged by Port Adelaide last Saturday night, but were outstanding after quarter time. Not renowned as a physical side capable of dominating its rivals in the contested-ball stakes, the Cats simply beat up on the Power, outscoring them 15 goals to three in the last three terms. Key forwards Tom Hawkins and Shane Kersten combined for just three goals, but will fancy their chances of having a night out against a Suns defence missing Steven May, Rory Thompson and Adam Saad.

If Gold Coast are to spring an upset, they will need Coleman Medal leader Tom Lynch to raise the bar even further. That is a big ask given what he has achieved already this season, but at the same time, it wouldn’t be a total shock. His hands are vice-like and his kicking, while not textbook, very economical. But the Suns spearhead will be very reliant on service and given the dearth of talent in his midfield, it’s difficult to see him receiving a wealth of opportunities.

VERDICT: Geelong by 43 points.

Richmond v Port Adelaide

Saturday, MCG 5.25pm

Richmond were anything but convincing when they held off Carlton in round one. In the aftermath, it was seen as a game where the Tigers blew out the cobwebs and would go forward in the ensuing weeks. Likewise, Port Adelaide required a whirlwind last quarter and a half to overcome St Kilda at Adelaide Oval in round one. We were assured that it was a starting point from which to launch a successful campaign. One month later, we have been hoodwinked.

Both sides are ordinary. Very ordinary. There is no two ways about it. Richmond’s defensive-minded, methodical approach has been rendered obsolete in the current game, while Power coach Ken Hinkley is still searching for alternatives to the roadblocks put in front of him by opposition mentors to the all-out attacking game plan he adopted back in 2014. On top of that, there is a distinct lack of spirit and care being shown by players from both sides.

Richmond will be without dual All-Australian Alex Rance following his moment of madness, but the return of Brett Deledio is massive. Richmond are clearly a superior outfit with the former No.1 draft pick in their line-up. Trent Cotchin, Dustin Martin and Brandon Ellis will be mighty happy he is back. As for Port, Charlie Dixon will be looking to exploit a Tigers defence minus Rance. Dixon hasn’t delivered what the Power would have hoped when they acquired him during last year’s trade period, but the fact they are the least effective side in regards to marks inside attacking 50m, is not all on the bearded spearhead. That Port couldn’t consider Robbie Gray (hamstring) and Chad Wingard (concussion) is a hammer blow to their hopes.

VERDICT: Richmond by 23 points.

Brisbane v Sydney

Sunday, Gabba 11.10am

Sydney are the No.1-contested side in the competition, Brisbane 18th. It says a fair bit about these two sides, with the Swans ensconced in the top four and the Lions nestled in the bottom part of the ladder. You don’t require a degree in physics to work out which of the two teams is in the premiership conversation and will remain at the forefront of that discussion when the final siren sounds here.

Brisbane were terrible against the Western Bulldogs. They were virtually non-competitive from the outset, a major disappointment given how brave they were the previous week in beating Gold Coast. As for the Swans, they warmed to their work against West Coast thanks to the influence of their midfield, which simply overwhelmed the Eagles’ running division. Josh Kennedy, Kieren Jack, Dan Hannebery, Luke Parker and Tom Mitchell will fancy their chances of dining out again in this contest.

And should they do so, the Swans might pile on a total. Lance Franklin and Kurt Tippett are in excellent nick, as is Isaac Heeney, while youngster Tom Papley was a deserving winner of this week’s Rising Star nomination. Given Brisbane’s defence has leaked like a faulty tent, coughing up an average of 124 points a game, it is difficult to make a case for Justin Leppitsch’s men. Watch for the Swans to knock up getting goals out the back.

VERDICT: Sydney by 49 points.

Carlton v Essendon

Sunday, MCG 1.20pm

This has been a game a lot of tipsters have dreaded from the moment Essendon’s worst fears were realised and a swag of their better performers were suspended for doping violations. And then a giant-sized spanner was thrown in the works in round five when Carlton shocked Fremantle at Domain Stadium and Essendon were pumped by Collingwood following three extremely encouraging weeks.

What does that all mean? No idea. Yes, the Blues left WA with the four points, but that came about through more persistence than talent, not to mention a good dose of ineptitude from the Dockers. What has become apparent under Brendon Bolton is that Carlton are a testing opponent defensively. The same could be said about Essendon prior to the Anzac Day debacle. On that evidence, those expecting a free-flowing contest with a swag of goals should look elsewhere.

The leadership of Marc Murphy, Kade Simpson and Patrick Cripps against Fremantle was terrific, while Dale Thomas kicked three goals and showed glimpses of his best. If they are able to again perform at that level, Essendon will be well and truly tested. The Bombers would dearly love Joe Daniher to have a breakout display, but the Blues have two talented young key-position prospects in Jacob Weitering and Lachie Plowman, along with veteran Sam Rowe.

VERDICT: Carlton by 5 points.

West Coast v Collingwood

Sunday, Domain Stadium 2.40pm

Though just three spots separate these two sides on the ladder entering round six, they couldn’t be further apart in the premiership market. And while West Coast didn’t enhance their claims in a disappointing display against Sydney last weekend, it will take something unforeseen for them not to be 4-2 and back on good terms with themselves at the end of this game.

The Eagles continually beat up on interstate rivals at Domain Stadium and even though the Magpies head west full of beans following their Anzac Day thumping of Essendon, this assignment will be far more daunting. The ability of Adam Simpson’s men to press up their opposition in Perth is superb and Collingwood are still not a side all that reliable by foot, which in turn leads to turnovers. The Eagles terrorised Richmond a fortnight ago in a similar manner, only to undo their good work with poor finishing in front of goal.

Nic Naitanui powers a following division that is difficult to thwart in Perth and if Matt Priddis, Luke Shuey, Andrew Gaff and Lewis Jetta are at their optimum, the Magpies’ back line will be under siege from the outset. Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley will be hoping Steele Sidebottom and Scott Pendlebury replicate their form against Essendon, mindful that the run and carry of Adam Treloar will be invaluable in Perth. But there are genuine concerns on Collingwood kicking a big enough total without Travis Cloke, even more so when you factor in the intercept marking talents of Jeremy McGovern.

VERDICT: West Coast by 61 points.

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