Sports

David Shortte’s AFL Preview: Wildcard Round

Posted on | Posted by David Shortte

FRIDAY

Western Bulldogs v Collingwood, MCG, 5.40pm

A tremendous contest awaits to kick off Wildcard Weekend with the eighth placed Western Bulldogs led by their Club Legend Marcus Bontempelli taking on the ninth placed Collingwood who have the hottest player in the game right now in Nick Daicos.

Let’s first take a look at the two sides records over the season, over the last 10 rounds, over the last 4 weeks, and last week.

Western Bulldogs

Finishing Position : 8th

Season Record : 13 Wins 9 Losses 1 Draw

Last 10 Rounds : 5 Wins 4 Losses 1 Draw

Last 4 Weeks : 1 Win 2 Losses 1 Draw

Last Week : Western Bulldogs 16.12 108 defeated Melbourne 12.15 87 by 21 points

Collingwood

Finishing Position : 9th

Season Record : 12 Wins 9 Losses 2 Draws

Last 10 Rounds : 7 Wins 2 Losses 1 Draw

Last 4 Weeks : 1 Win 2 Losses 1 Draw

Last Week : Brisbane 25.9 159 defeated Collingwood 15.6 96 by 63 points

These two sides have very similar overall numbers for the season and appear evenly matched which should translate to a really tight and competitive contest, and recent history also confirms this thought.

They met once in 2025 when Collingwood prevailed by 6 points (76-70) and at their only match up this season in round 12 at Marvel Stadium it was the Western Bulldogs 14.13 97 who defeated Collingwood 13.15 93 by 4 points.

In their most recent meeting the top 8 key disposal winners and multiple goal scorers for both sides were as follows :

Collingwood : Nick Daicos 37, Pendlebury 33, DeGoey 30, Maynard 23, Houston 23, Howe 22, Josh Daicos 22, Cameron 22

Western Bulldogs : Kennedy 29, Sanders 28, Dale 27, Richards 24, Budarick 22, Bontempelli 22, Freijah 21, Treloar 19

Collingwood : Membrey 3, Schultz 2, Anderson 2

Western Bulldogs : Lewis 3, Richards 2, McNeil 2, English 2

IN GOOD NICK : From a strategic perspective the Western Bulldogs tend to back their game plan in to get it done and it is very rare for them to apply hard core tags to their opposition. This should equate to plenty of the ball for the Pies Ball Magnet Nick Daicos who has had disposal tallies of 32, 39 and 37 the last three times these sides have met. In his 22 games this season Nick Daicos has averaged 34.9 possessions per game with 30 or more disposals in 18 matches, 35 or more disposals in 13 matches and 40 or more disposals on 3 separate occasions. For some icing on the cake he has slotted 24 goals at an average of better than a goal a match.

YEAH THE BONT : Marcus Bontempelli is one of the all-time greats of the Western Bulldogs and quite simply when the Doggies are in a big match you better believe he is going to play a major role. He has had another stellar season in 2026 averaging 26.3 disposals per game and nearly a goal and a half per match, slotting 30 goals. From his 22 matches he has had 14 games with disposal counts of 25 or more and 6 where he has had 30 or more possessions. He has kicked 2 or more goals in 10 of his 22 matches this season. There is a possibility that Ed Allen may play a close checking role on the Bont to try and limit his influence. If this does take place watch for Bontempelli to drag him deep in to the Doggies forward line and look to hit the scoreboard.

From a personnel perspective we are still waiting to see if Aaron Naughton and Tim English will be good to go for the Doggies. They are crucial pieces of the Dogs outfit and will leave significant holes if they do not come up.

For Collingwood Scott Pendlebury and Brayden Maynard will not be available and they will be hoping Isaac Quaynor and Pat Lipinski can pass their fitness tests and be cleared to play.

What a magnificent contest lies in store for the launch of the inaugural Wildcard Weekend in the AFL. I liked the performance from the Doggies last week to knock off a Melbourne side who have been tough to get at in season 2026. On the flip side I wasn’t very impressed with the Pies performance but it must be noted that their opponent Brisbane are starting to really hit top gear again and at that level they pretty much make everyone look ordinary.

I think this will go right down to the wire and I am expecting a grandstand finish.

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs by 3 points.

Same Game Multi: Jordan DeGoey and Marcus Bontempelli to both get 20 or more disposals, Bailey Dale to get 25 or more disposals, Nick Daicos to get 30 or more disposals and Arthur Jones and Marcus Bontempelli to both score one or more goals @ $4.30*

SATURDAY

Melbourne v Carlton, MCG, 5.35pm

Another absolute belter of a clash lies in store on Saturday night as the Demons put their season on the line against the rampaging Carlton.

Fresh off his record breaking ninth All-Australian selection earlier in the week Melbourne skipper Max Gawn will be keen to assert his authority on this match while for Carlton Patrick Cripps, Sam Walsh, George Hewett and up and comer Jagga Smith will be confident they can maintain their hot form.

Let’s take a look at the two sides records over the season, over the last 10 rounds, over the last 4 weeks, and last week.

Melbourne

Finishing Position : 7th

Season Record : 15 Wins 8 Losses

Last 10 Rounds : 7 Wins 3 Losses

Last 4 Weeks : 3 Wins 1 Loss

Last Week : Western Bulldogs 16.12 108 defeated Melbourne 12.15 87 by 21 points

Carlton

Finishing Position : 10th

Season Record : 12 Wins 10 Losses 1 Draw

Last 10 Rounds : 7 Wins 2 Losses 1 Draw

Last 4 Weeks : 3 Wins 1 Draw

Last Week : Carlton 18.11 119 defeated Fremantle 12.10 82 by 37 points

Melbourne have a superior overall record to Carlton for the season but not by heaps and Carlton’s record since Josh Fraser took charge is absolutely stunning.

These two sides have played in some absolute cliff hangers in recent seasons. From their last 10 meetings 7 have been decided by single digit margins and in the other 3 games the biggest margin was 26 points.

At their only match up this season in round 3 at the MCG it was Melbourne 15.10 100 who defeated Carlton 11.11 77 by 23 points.

In their most recent meeting the top 8 key disposal winners and multiple goal scorers for both sides were as follows :

Melbourne : K. Pickett 33, Sparrow 29, Windsor 24, Steele 23, Gawn 23, Lever 21, Salem 20, Lindsay 18

Carlton : Walsh 31, Smith 25, E Hollands 25, O Hollands 23, Cripps 21, Williams 19, Hewett 18, Florent 17

Melbourne : Fritsch 4, Langford 2, Langdon 2, Chandler 2

Carlton: McGovern 3, E Hollands 2

GOING GOING GAWN : The Dees Skipper Max Gawn has had another mighty season. His disposal counts are crazy consistent in the 18-28 range with an overall average of 21.7 disposals per game. He has managed 20 or more disposals in 17 of his 23 matches and his lowest disposal count in 23 games is a very respectable 17 possessions. He has had a tremendous finish to the season managing 25 or more disposals in 3 of his last 4 matches suggesting he is set to peak for the finals.

SIZZLING SAM WALSH : After a couple of challenging seasons with back problems Blues midfielder Sam Walsh was able to complete his first full pre-season for some time in 2026 and isn’t he reaping the benefits. He has been consistently finding himself in the top 3 ball winners on the ground, averaging 28.6 disposals per game. He has managed 25 or more disposals in 19 of his 23 games, 28 or more in 15 of his 23 matches and 30 or more in 11 games. He has finished the regular season off in style with possession tallys of 33 and 32.

Unfortunately for Melbourne injuries and suspensions have come at a bad time with Jacob Van Rooyen suspended and Jake Lever and Matt Jefferson both not certain starters.

For Carlton Will Hayward will face a fitness test but Nick Haynes is expected to return.

I must admit to being a little drawn in to the Carlton Fairytale that has unfolded since Josh Fraser took over from Michael Voss earlier in the year. They went from losing 7 in a row to winning 7 in a row and in the process completely flipped the script on what their season could look like. Their midfield of Walsh, Cripps, Smith and Hewett are humming and they have built up a proper head of steam late in the season. Their recent dominant victories over Brisbane and Fremantle are surely timely reminders for how dangerous they can be.

I have also been really impressed with what Melbourne have accomplished in season 2026 under new Coach Steven King but I can only pick one here and I will lean towards the Blues.

VERDICT: Carlton by 11 points

Same Game Multi : Max Gawn, George Hewett and Jagga Smith to all get 20 or more disposals, Sam Walsh to get 25 or more disposals and Bailey Fristch to kick 2 or more goals @ $3.70*

Exclusive: I’ll also be taking a multi across the two matches with Jordan DeGoey and Max Gawn to both get 20 or more disposals and Bailey Dale, Sam Walsh and George Hewett to all get 25 or more disposals which is paying $3.94.

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