Races

Scott Embry’s Sunday Northam Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

THOR’S ANGEL is at least only a 4-start maiden and went close behind Cosmic Gem and then Aurora Queen in a C1 1600 (who has also won since). Lucy the best staying rider and she (surely) has more upside than her older rivals. Clutching at straws trying to convince yourself on who the winner of this race is but she has far less convictions than others. MACHO ARQUERO is a 26 start maiden and yet will be in the market – that says it all. Finished within 1L of Sunday Mass in a similar quality event three back (at 100-1) and since has finished 2.6L off Universal Impact, a race that produced subsequent winners Redrye and Midnight Star and then contested a 49+ that contained Royal Trooper (races Saturday) and Mr Bling (since won a 54+). OBSCENTINO beat him home in the Sunday Mass race. At least he rolls to the top and stays out of trouble? CABRERA showed something last start.

Numbers: 7 – 1 – 2 – 8

Suggested Bet – THOR’S ANGEL WIN

RACE 2

SHAMISTER has only had three starts in WA – producing a 52+ 1720 win over key rival Grandad’s Addiction before heading to a 60+ Graduation that was dominated from onspeed by Uni Queen and closing the margin to less than 2L late. He’s going really well and on the 8 day spin will have plenty of admirers back in grade. AHH CHOUX finished third to Royal Trooper and then second to Mr Bling and has been whacking away in these distance races for months now. Needs all the favours (like all of them at this level) and should get it from the draw. LIEN HYPHEN bounced back to form last start in a 52+ 1900 at Narrogin. Considering the beaten margin behind Western Lady the start prior there’s still a genuine query on whether or not she truly stays. GRANDAD’S ADDICTION has finished on the heels of Shamister and then Lien Hyphen at his last two. Ready now.

Numbers: 6 – 3 – 1 – 5

Suggested Bet – SHAMISTER WIN

RACE 3 

SHIMMERY STAR looks to have found her race on paper. She finished fourth to her enigmatic but now C3 winning stablemate Peter Gunn four back, finished 2.3L off now Saturday placed Peaceful Ruler in a 3 year old 0MWLY (with the same weight she’ll carry here) three starts ago and then in her last two she has sat wide behind Spellborn (now a 3 year old 62+ winner) and Effortlessly (now C1 placed). All the right form, finally drawn a barrier and should go very close to breaking through. DE LAGO’S ROCK got a mile out of his ground in a 2 year old maiden that contained Consignment and Vinny Nay who head to the WA Sires as well as a handful of other handy youngsters. Don’t mind the placement. TIGERLAND nearly won a 2 year old maiden two back. SOPHISTRY was kept safe in betting on debut back in November.

Numbers: 7 – 10 – 9 – 8

Suggested Bet – SHIMMERY STAR WIN

RACE 4

CHATTAHOOCHIE was all the chatta (sorry) at trials after leading and winning by nearly 6L at Belmont on 13 April. He was scratched from an 1100m maiden on Wednesday that contained Basset Hound and My Danny Boy and given the result of that race it was a brilliant decision by Mack Hall to dodge those two. Jump, run horses on opening day over 1000m at Northam. Yes please. NOW YOU SEE ME is speedy but will they look to cross Chattahoochie or will they be content with sitting in the breeze? Did run a handy race at Northam over 1000 behind Esta Mirando with a sit so doesn’t need to lead to win. NYRA hasn’t shown much on race day but has trialled up alright a few times. CATHEDRAL POINT put in her best trial to date most recently.

Numbers: 8 – 2 – 4 – 7

Suggested Bet – CHATTAHOOCHIE WIN

RACE 5

GUARANTOR and JOLSON AL are both through the same race behind speedy filly Solar Chant and that’s the form line that most will be siding up with. By the time that they jumped there was little between them SP wise with JOLSON AL jumping $10 and GUARANTOR jumping $13 and in the end there was little between them in the finish of the race. GUARANTOR has had a few cracks at it but if you forget his two runs in October/November when he was first gelded and clearly below his best then his overall form look strong enough to win this. JOLSON AL should have no troubles getting across to at least the breeze. He’s got great early toe. BILLIE was kept very safe at her WA debut off a sharp barrier trial win at Lark Hill. UXORIOUS has won both of his lead up barrier trials but has a horror gate to navigate.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 6 – 3

Suggested Bet – GUARANTOR WIN

RACE 6

FLAMING RONDA and SETAGAYA are both through the Must Be Nice C1 at Ascot which was a fairly ugly contest where the first four in running were all 50-1+ and so the fence line didn’t get exactly get any soft of flow into the contest (or usage of the cutaway rail). Thought all things considered FLAMING RONDA did a great job to get within 1.2L late and settling at least a pair closer here (and with Pike) could bounce back to the winner’s circle. SETAGAYA beat her home that day, ran a faster L600 than her and clearly there’s not much between them. Logical danger. ROSENTREA was in a blanket finish C1 last start and the winner Aurora Queen came out to win a C2 at Albany last weekend. SO MUCH SERENITY is yet to reproduce anywhere near her 0.4L defeat to Swingman on Bunbury Cup Day.

Numbers: 2 – 8 – 1 – 9

Suggested Bet – FLAMING RONDA WIN

RACE 7

RAINLINE showed gate speed that very few thought she possessed first-up and that’s been a characteristic of Holly Nottle’s riding since day 1. Everything she rides gets out of the machines brilliantly and then travels. She can suddenly change horses racing patterns – think Azena, think Platinum Shot, etc etc and this mare never looked like losing. If she again gets out cleanly, works forward to a prominent position and reproduces the performance then she’ll be very hard to beat. HISTORY WON’T CARE had nothing go right for him last start but at the same time did finish last beaten nearly 7L. Runs for Pike, draws far better and sneaks back in grade to suit. FEARLESS TALK has hit form and then horse she beat last start in Think Pink Daze won well at Pinjarra last Monday. CHERYL’S SHOUT can come on quickly second-up.

Numbers: 3 – 1 – 8 – 9

Suggested Bet – RAINLINE WIN

RACE 8

SMOOTH CHINO and ROPE THEM IN were individually outstanding in the Quokka and that $5,000,000 WFA feature is clearly the form line to follow. SMOOTH CHINO missed away and that was game over for him at that level. Early regular rider Austin Galati is back in the saddle and if he jumps cleanly he’ll roll forward into a prominent position and be afforded every favour. Gets 1kg on ROPE THEM IN from the Roma Cup and Quokka at SWP and looks a race where he’ll quite naturally land first 2/3 in running. ROPE THEM IN is drawn 10/11 but does his best work when saved up for one last crack at them anyway. He’s in career best form and is savaging the line. SISU WARRIOR was a 200-1 chance in the Quokka and ran out of his skin. He gets 3.5kg on Rope Them In and 2.5kg on Smooth Chino. Can win. MAGNIFICENT ANDY was below his best in the Quokka.

Numbers: 7 – 2 – 9 – 1

Suggested Bet – SMOOTH CHINO WIN

RACE 9

TWO TIME CHARLIE, HERAULT and BELAURA STAR are all capable of going from C1 to C3 to 60+ to ratings races in the space of one campaign. They’re all 3 year olds, they’ve all got upside and they’re going to clash in one of the more exciting contests of the meeting to close out Northam Stakes Day. TWO TIME CHARLIE was a brilliant last to first winner at his first outing for SJ Miller when gunning down now 2x Saturday winner Watto’s Mark. He was well below his best second-up and has since had a spell. HERAULT might find 1300m on the shorter side for him but expecting he’ll sprint well fresh. BELAURA STAR comes through a 3 year old 0MWLY that has already produced a subsequent winner in Xentaro and does actually have speed (if they elect to use it). OCTOBER ROX best of the rest?

Numbers: 3 – 2 – 1 – 6

Suggested Bet – TWO TIME CHARLIE WIN

Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)

2,8

1,3,8

1,2,7,8,9

1,2,3

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