Races

Scott Embry’s Thursday Ascot Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

DEFINE BEAUTIFUL wasn’t quick enough to lead in the Epona and then actually fought on really bravely from the breeze when finishing fourth behind Jaz Session, Supernatural and Treble Maker. This is a drop back in grade and looks a very similar set up to where she won at her first outing for Luke Fernie. If any leader is going to win on Cup Day then it’s likely to be early in the day before the Southwesterly breeze arrives at Ascot. HELLUVA GODDESS is a nice mare. She’s capable of working her way through into 66+/72+ races and that’s rarely something you say in a Westspeed Platinum. Looks Holly Nottle’s best chance yet at a maiden Saturday victory. DESERT DANCING is absolutely flying. She had never raced at 1200, never raced at 1400 and savaged the line in both. Couldn’t be going any better. NAUGHTY TORTIE do they let run or do they sit?

Numbers: 5 – 3 – 4 – 8

Suggested Bet – DEFINE BEAUTIFUL WIN

RACE 2

NICCIMOTA got along really well with Chanel Cooper last preparation and while she does seem to appreciate getting her toe in, it looks a great opportunity first-up to jump run and pinch this. Winning and losing could come down to crossing King Cartel in the first 200m. The fence is a big thing for her. MAGNIQUE is bursting to win a race. She’s run a 66+ placing to Smooth Chino. Has to win another one soon. AMAROO STAR is his own worst enemy. Had his head pointing to the sky in his trial and has a lot to learn. The one thing he needs on race day: speed on, and he’ll get exactly that to suit. SANTANOVA grew wings first-up to score out of absolutely nowhere when grabbing Lucky I Am and Overdrive in the shadows. Second-up went to 1200m and that does seem to stretch her. Back to 1000m could be key.

Numbers: 5 – 3 – 4 – 2

Suggested Bet – NICCIMOTA WIN

RACE 3

LIKE CLOCKWORK is two from two undefeated and showed a brilliant turn of foot to score a last to first win at the mid-weekers. The second and third horses from that race both won at their next outing and she has a 3kg pull on the fav. Game on. STORM AWAY is starting to put it all together. He only scrambled home in a 1200m maiden and that saw Mitchell Pateman change two things: 1) bring him back in distance to 1000m rather than heading out to 1400m as initially expected; and 2) putting a set of blinkers on. Very hard to beat and maps to get an identical run to last start. RIPPER RUPERT nearly dislodged Chris Parnham out of the barriers first-up. Got all the favours in the home straight but early wasn’t pretty. MONTE TREMEZZO was a solid return.

Numbers: 8 – 1 – 3 – 5

Suggested Bet – LIKE CLOCKWORK WIN

RACE 4

HAIDA GWAII had to park outside of Pin Deep first-up at 1000m and was able to hold off sharp sprinter Want A Winner in the concluding stages to score. Second-up she stays close to the minimum, maps to get the same run outside of either Pin Deep or Sinful Living and from there she’ll be again hard to run down. Short course specialist. IMMORTAL BLISS and BLACK ORA are both highly talented chasers, who can both reel off low 33 second L600 splits. BLACK ORA has just gone to a whole new level this campaign. She’s flying through the grades and she’s winning with authority and arrogance. That last start win was outrageously good. IMMORTAL BLISS looked great in his initial WA preparation and can continue his way through the grades. KEEP ITA MYSTERY back to 1000m looks the right move.

Numbers: 7 – 2 – 3 – 4

Suggested Bet – HAIDA GWAII WIN

RACE 5

PLAYIN’ IT SWEET hasn’t been seen for 58 day since being scratched out of the WA Champion Fillies. Prior to that she had won five of her last six, with her only defeat coming at the hands of Asphalt and September Born in a 72+ against the older horses. She’s a Stakes winning filly, who has previously won first-up without a trial off 91 days and she’s drawn to get a lovely run along the fence line. Great race for her on paper and she wouldn’t be here if Adam Durrant didn’t think she was 100% because she could be the next stable star. PROSPECTORS PICK ran well without luck first-up and second-up and then went well behind talented sprinter Charino third-up. Ready to win. RON’S FINALFLUTTER is more than capable and trialled well. EARTHSTORM is proving a hard mare to catch and a hard mare to place. m74 rated C1.

Numbers: 1 – 4 – 7 – 2

Suggested Bet – PLAYIN’ IT SWEET WIN

RACE 6 

TERRITORY MAN will get the crowd into voice. This is the quintessential William Pike horse, sit and sprint, and he looks the typical Grant & Alana Williams lightly raced, progressive type who will march his way through the grades. Sectionally he had to sprint really hard in a race where the leaders had it completely to themselves last start: First 800m = 17L slower than average, Last 600m = 5L quicker. Did a great job to pick them up and was only getting warm late. TOURETTO has put in two rippers for new trainer Peter Daly. He was never on the track last start and kept coming. RIGHT TO SILENCE nearly should have won two back. Newitt back on and seems to appreciate being ridden cold. BELTA OF A SONG is hard work, but when they’re winning races you can put up with it. Brendon Fitz-Gerald deserves every dollar he earns with her.

Numbers: 6 – 3 – 11 – 4

Suggested Bet – TERRITORY MAN WIN

RACE 7

OUR PALADIN AL found the ideal set up last start and was the beneficiary of the speed (or lack thereof) of the middle stages. He’s a big baby who has absolutely no idea what he’s doing or just how talented he is, and needs room to move and things to go his way. He was able to join the three and four deep moving line when the anchor was thrown and was right on top of them on straightening and able to burst clear for a dominant 2L win. Concerns here are two fold: 1) going up 4kg start to start; and 2) being drawn barrier 2 and pushed back into traffic. Hopefully can stay out of trouble. MAGNA’S CHOICE is the obvious danger and likely settles in front of him and in clear room. Big threat. ARCADIA KNIGHT was a brilliant first-up 1400m winner last prep (albeit on a Heavy9). Must be the more forward of the Peters Pair if CJP rides? ARCADIA PARK took out the 3 year old winter staying series and has a Cups future.

Numbers: 4 – 9 – 1 – 2

Suggested Bet – OUR PALADIN AL WIN

RACE 8

MACHINE GUN GRACIE looked like she just peaked in the concluding stages first-up at 1600m and certainly lost no admirers in the process. She didn’t step that cleanly, was crossed immediately and had to take a trail which up until this point in time was a completely foreign task. Tracked up well, had difficulty getting clear running (as a big, striding type of mare) and then just flattened out late. Would love to see her roll to the top this time around. LUVNWAR was 2000m placed as a 3 year old filly and finished off powerfully to run past Machine Gun Gracie in the Starstruck. ADMIRATION EXPRESS is brilliantly suited under the SWP conditions. She’s a m100 with 2kg less than Machine Gun Gracie and comes out of the WFA and Pinnacles series. NOTEWORTHY gets the right run.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 2 – 5

Suggested Bet – MACHINE GUN GRACIE WIN

RACE 9

MADHI GIRL started out last campaign as a m71 rated Class 2 galloper, having won as a 2 year old and a 3 year old over 1000m. In the four runs she had last preparation she was only defeated once and that was first-up down the 1000m straight under 60kg when she was held up and bolting. Has trialled super on two occasions leading into her return to racing and she’s a short course sprinting specialist. In perfectly on the 54kg min and looks really hard to beat. DESERT WHISPER is rapid. If this race was over 900m you’d say it’s over. 54kg a massive help to her and she’ll cross them in the first 200. JAZ SESSION doesn’t know how to run a bad race. Even if she’s caught deep she’ll keep coming. HANCHI is a talented sprinter and has no doubt been targeted at this race off the 7 week freshen.

Numbers: 11 – 6 – 9 – 8

Suggested Bet – MADHI GIRL WIN

RACE 10

APULIA has the Van Heemst horses covered – simple. So then it comes down to whether or not the 5.5kg pull in the weights that most of the ATA/Towtown horses have on him is enough to test. There’s going to be a natural query on whether or not barrier 3 is of any advantage to him whatsoever, because he’s got very little (nearly no) early tactical speed. But you trust in The Wizard to make the right calls at the right moments and he looks like going around one of the shortest priced favourites in recent Perth Cup history. Jumps odds on? FOREVER BOY was the even money favourite in the ATA Stakes and while he copped a fair bit of interference at a key stage, there’s no doubting he was still a little on the flat side. FILTHY HABITS rolls straight to the top under 53kg, has blinkers re-attached for his Grand Final and gets better with each run in the campaign. BUCKETS RIDGE deliberately bypassed the ATA/Van Heemst to come into the Cup 4 weeks between runs fresh.

Numbers: 2 – 10 – 9 – 5

Suggested Bet – APULIA WIN

RACE 11

AWESOME BOY has been huge in defeat recently. First-up under 60.5kg without a barrier trial he sat back at 1200m and charged to the line. Second-up he absorbed pressure, kicked clear on straightening and as only run down by the horse getting the soft run on his back. Third-up he was unable to cross, was pestered from start to finish and went down in the final stride (the leader tailed off last). Has had 33 days in between and hopefully glides across without doing too much early. Deserves one. SOLDANELLE is now officially a Pike only commodity. There’s no doubt she goes 4/5L better for him than anyone else. Quirky mare. BOLD HERO is more than capable and did trial up well for his return. CASHEL PALACE has returned in good order.

Numbers: 3 – 6 – 7 – 4

Suggested Bet – AWESOME BOY WIN

Quaddie (Race 8 – 11)

1,2,3

6,11

2,5,9,10,15

3,6

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