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Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 21

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

FRIDAY

Western Bulldogs v Melbourne, Marvel Stadium, 5.15pm

Melbourne have caused the Western Bulldogs undeniable grief in recent memory. One only has to think back to the 2021 grand final in Perth. With the Demons teetering, now is the time for the Bulldogs to deliver some payback.

And on what we have seen over the past month, it would take a bold individual to say that won’t be happening. The Bulldogs are indeed snarling again, with no obvious weak links in their line-up.

If you have taken down Carlton, Geelong (away) and Sydney (away) in your last three games, you should be dining out on a Melbourne team that might now be having to deal with the realisation their premiership window has shut.

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs by 1-39 points

West Coast v Gold Coast, Optus Stadium, 6.10pm

Gold Coast’s margin for error is alarmingly small. A defeat at home to Brisbane, your first loss before your own fans for 2024, and a failure to win any away matches will cause that.

The Suns venture to Perth for a rare encounter under the Friday night lights and even taking into account West Coast’s improved display opposed to Fremantle last weekend, this is a contest they simply should win.

The Suns’ midfield had its colours lowered by Brisbane. Ditto West Coast in the overall scheme of things against the Dockers’ prime movers. The absence of Tom Barrass (concussed) could be telling, although Gold Coast need to be more clinical in front of goal.

VERDICT: Gold Coast to win

SATURDAY

North Melbourne v Richmond, Marvel Stadium, 11.45am

North Melbourne and favouritism is a strange union. Much like beer and ice cream. Yet here we are. Or should I say there we were.

The Tigers are now favourites after recalling Dustin Martin, Jack Graham and Toby Nankervis, coupled with the unavailability of George Wardlaw (concussed) and Griffin Logue (wrist) for North.

Cam Zurhaar’s re-signing this week for a further five seasons was well received at Arden Street and you’d think he and Nick Larkey, under the roof at Marvel, will be presented with their share of chances to impact the scoreboard.

VERDICT: North Melbourne to win

Geelong v Adelaide, GMBHA Stadium, 2.35pm

We shouldn’t be surprised, but there was so much to like about the mature performance of Geelong in round 20. Down in Hobart against North Melbourne, the Cats found themselves trailing by three goals early.

But they didn’t panic, started to win the football at the source and then capitalised on North’s mistakes by foot to pull away and win comfortably. It was a win that keeps them in the top-two hunt, a pursuit that will be well and truly alive after this clash.

Whereas the Cats were rightly praised for their effort last weekend, Adelaide were rightly panned. Shown up by a hungrier, more organised and faster Hawthorn, the Crows are a club going nowhere … fast.

VERDICT: Geelong by 25 points or more

Collingwood v Carlton, MCG, 5.30pm

How do you quantify what the magnificent milestone of Scott Pendlebury means to Collingwood here? It might be nigh on impossible to predict, but we do know that the smooth left-footer reaching the 400-game club is a cause of celebration for football lovers nation-wide.

It could also deliver the Magpies a late-season jolt that keeps them in the mix. They snapped a four-match losing streak against Richmond and while they are not the feared force of last year, Carlton aren’t exactly humming either.

The Blues cannot string together four quarters at present and they look pedestrian through the midfield. The availability of Harry McKay instantaneously makes Carlton better. If he and Charlie Curnow get enough looks, they will take some stopping.

VERDICT: Carlton to win

Port Adelaide v Sydney, Adelaide Oval, Adelaide Oval, 5.30pm

There are a swag of teams Sydney would like to play after stumbling to four defeats from their past five matches. Port Adelaide isn’t one of them.

Remarkably, the Power have beaten the Swans on seven successive occasions, a winning streak that started nearly a decade ago. And as fate would have it, Ken Hinkley’s men have overcome a slump of their own to win four of their last five games to remain in the conversation for a double chance next month.

Sydney were beaten at the source by the Western Bulldogs and didn’t handle the heat. It was a display that John Longmire would have stewed on during the week. He needs his leaders to take responsibility. If they can again show the way, especially midfield, the Swans can get back on the bike.

VERDICT: Sydney to win

SUNDAY

GWS v Hawthorn, Manuka Oval, 11.10am

The Hawthorn juggernaut has been bouncing around the country of late and this weekend rolls into the nation’s capital for what promises to be an enthralling clash with a revitalised GWS.

Hardly anything separated the teams when they met down in Launceston earlier in the season, with the Hawks coming out on top thanks to a late Luke Breust strike. Much like Hawthorn down in the Apple Isle, the Giants are a feared unit in Canberra. They’ll need to be to emerge triumphant.

Hawthorn have won 11 of their last 14 matches, with last Sunday’s demolition of Adelaide Oval one of their best performances to date. The leg speed was electric and will no doubt have garnered plenty of attention from the GWS coaching staff.

VERDICT: GWS to win

Essendon v Fremantle, MCG, 1.20pm

Danger game. Ambush. Red alert. All have been used to describe Fremantle’s upcoming battle with Essendon at the MCG. The Bombers have hardly fired a shot in recent weeks and the inept performance against St Kilda infuriated their fan base.

Fremantle remain formidable in WA, yet are only solid away from Perth. A win in the final month of the home-and-away campaign at the MCG would do wonders for their self-belief and if the midfield, led by Caleb Serong and Andy Brayshaw again set the standard, the Dockers are entitled to feel confident.

No Jordan Ridley hurts the Bombers’ backline against a Fremantle side boasting tall timber in Jye Amiss, Josh Treacy and Luke Jackson.

VERDICT: Fremantle to win

St Kilda v Brisbane, Marvel Stadium, 2.40pm

Breaking down St Kilda can be an arduous task. Brisbane did it mid-season in a rollicking affair at the Gabba and will be appreciate this match being at Marvel Stadium, a venue the Lions consider a home away from home.

The fast deck and sterile surrounds of Marvel suit the Lions ideally, as evidenced by the fact they have won eight of their past 10 outings. The presence of Harris Andrews in defence will see Eric Hipwood released to play forward and go about stretching the Saints’ defence.

Brisbane have stormed into second spot on the back of eight consecutive wins and unless Ross Lyon can find a way to slow down the Lions’ ball movement, win No.9 in a line beckons.

VERDICT: Brisbane to win 

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