Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 20

Posted on July 27, 2023July 27, 2023 | Posted by Digby Beacham

FRIDAY

Collingwood v Carlton, MCG, 5.50pm

Hand Collingwood an assignment and no matter how hard it is, they will give it their best shot. And their best continues to be at a level beyond the rest. Just ask Port Adelaide.

The Magpies now return home to the MCG for a pulsating showdown with arch rivals Carlton, who have revived their season post-bye and look every bit a finals side. Injuries have proved a stumbling block and they will be without Sam Walsh and Harry McKay, along with Jack Silvagni for this task, yet their resolve is growing.

It will need to go to another level though. The Magpies are elite and can get you in so many ways. It is why they sit atop the ladder and why they are favourites here.

VERDICT: Collingwood to win

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SATURDAY

Geelong v Fremantle, GMHBA Stadium, 11.45am

Despite a last-round setback, one side is building. Conversely, the other is flagging. Given the venue here and the TABtouch market, it’s pretty easy to work out which is which.

The Cats were poor against Brisbane and duly came up short. However, they weren’t that far off in the end and return to the comforts of GMHBA Stadium where the likes of Tom Hawkins and Jeremy Cameron have the capacity to run amok.

It might be an unpopular view, but the Cats need considerably more from their skipper Patrick Dangerfield. If he can catch fire in the run to the finals, Geelong’s premiership defence is far from over.

VERDICT: Geelong by 40 points or more

Western Bulldogs v GWS, Mars Stadium, 11.45am

Not a great deal separate these two teams on the ladder and it must be said, not a lot has wedged them apart in recent encounters. Off what we have seen of late, it would be a surprise if the margin was stark here.

The Giants continue to be a great story under Adam Kingsley. With his approach modified and senior players in terrific nick, GWS have flourished to the point where they are inside the top eight and playing a brand of football that looks like it will stack up in September.

The same plaudits can’t be attributed to the Bulldogs. They are poor against the better sides but beat those in and around them. Working off that, this is a game they should be winning.

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs by 1-39 points

Gold Coast v Brisbane, Heritage Bank Stadium, 2.35pm

Part of the neutral football follower would like to see Gold Coast win to inject further intrigue into the composition of the top eight. Yet the other part wants to see Brisbane salute to enhance their top-two chances and kill off once for all the rhetoric around the Suns’ finals participation.

Gold Coast were very Gold Coast last weekend. Fresh off a strong performance after the sacking of Stuart Dew, they were flogged by GWS. Barring something foreign occurring here, they should again come up short opposed to their big brothers.

The Lions will make their flag assault without Will Ashcroft, but they have depth there in the midfield, a more cohesive defensive unit these days and firepower in attack. They are legitimate.

VERDICT: Brisbane by 1-39 points

Essendon v Sydney, Marvel Stadium, 5.25pm

Only a week ago, I was keen on Essendon to upset the Western Bulldogs under the Friday night lights. It was a flawed selection with the Bombers not only beaten, but seemingly bereft of petrol tickets.

Can Brad Scott engineer one last push towards September? He’ll need to if they are to overcome Sydney, who are a completely different beast at present to the one we saw limp through the mid-part of the season. And that is a good thing.

The Swans look up and about and with Lance Franklin having a contribution in attack, the Bombers should be concerned. He has filled his boots against Essendon for the duration of his career, both at Hawthorn and Sydney.

VERDICT: Sydney to win 

Adelaide v Port Adelaide, Adelaide Oval, 5.40pm

Like Gold Coast, Adelaide are set to be September spectators. But there is one side you’d like to follow in the short to mid-term and it isn’t the Suns. The Crows are very much a work in progress, but there is so much to be excited about.

That said, the AFL is very much a results-based environment and July hasn’t been kind to the Crows. The last-round loss to Melbourne was compounded by Izak Rankine’s hamstring injury, ruling him out for several weeks.

Complicating Matthew Nicks’ situation is Port Adelaide on the rebound await. The Power were brilliant against Collingwood, albeit came up short. An effort anywhere near that level will be sufficient here. Connor Rozee would love to turn one on in his 100th appearance.

VERDICT: Port Adelaide to win

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SUNDAY

Hawthorn v St Kilda, Marvel Stadium, 11.10am

It is unsurprising that very little separates these two teams in the market. Though Hawthorn have won only five matches and St Kilda sit inside the top eight, you could mount an argument the Hawks are playing better football at present.

Indeed, they were stiff not to hold on and beat Richmond last weekend. While they lamented what might have been after the round, the Saints breathed out big time after overhauling North Melbourne in the final quarter?

Stretching the necks of a finals-bound side opposed to battling to dismiss a wooden spoon contender is surely superior form. Not to mention Hawthorn did get the Saints earlier this year.

VERDICT: Hawthorn to win

Richmond v Melbourne, MCG, 1.20pm

A top-four spot is within touching distance of Melbourne after back-to-back escapes against Brisbane and Adelaide. Richmond will provide another stern test, but the Demons now have an attacking mindset that was lacking.

It is that mindset that should enable them to hold up this time of the season. Richmond have never lacked for scoring in their prime, but we are seeing them give up totals we didn’t witness in their premiership days. They would now rather drown you in scores than suffocate you in defence.

Importantly for the Demons, their best players are in good form, notably Max Gawn, Christian Petracca and Kozzy Pickett. If the next tier also perform well, they should be winning this.

VERDICT: Melbourne to win 

West Coast v North Melbourne, Optus Stadium, 2.40pm

You know you are a horrible football side when North Melbourne have owned you of late. You only have had to watch the past couple of seasons though to appreciate West Coast are a horrible football side. With a capital H.

For all their flaws however, this is a winnable match for the Eagles. They are back at home where they have challenged St Kilda and Richmond in the past month and likely to welcome back Jeremy McGovern and Tom Barrass to stiffen a backline that has been bombarded for the best part of two years.

As plucky as North have been under Brett Ratten, they haven’t won since round two and look like they have forgotten how to do so.

VERDICT: West Coast to win

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