Dogs

Australian Cup and Fanta Bale Super Stayers: Runner-By-Runner

Posted on | Posted by TABtouch

AUSTRALIAN CUP: RUNNER-BY-RUNNER

Box 1 – Captain Larry

Boxed to give this one massive shake and the knockout blow to win the cup. Superb off a middle draw in his heat where he actually held Wow She’s Fast late in the run albeit the 2nd dog was a little unlucky. Continues to run fast time off the arm and considering he could possibly use the box to lead, you have to wonder how he will be run down if he does so. Can land handy at the very least and that makes him a major threat. Has a great turn of foot and can provide the kennel with another big Group 1. Don’t dismiss this bloke because he is right in this and the on top selection.

Box 2 – Mortified

NSW visitor who was excellent first up in her heat. She did however get a lot of room to operate early and muster up and worth nothing that while she has a good box 1 record, she steps right at box rise and doesn’t enjoy crowding as much as evidenced by a few losses back home off similar draws.  This map also presents some issues as there will be some 5.05s cutting down early. As impressive as she was, her current quote is unders for mine and there are a few too many risks. Needs absolutely everything to go right at box rise. Can win but others preferred. 

Box 3 – Indy Fido

One of the outsiders but he’s not completely hopeless with this not being the strongest cup ever run. Well drawn in and knows this track backwards. His key strength is the that turn of foot he has up the back straight which was again on display in his heat. Can get to a striking spot here and while his overall time needs to come down, he can be hard to catch if he cuts loose through the middle section and finds the arm. Certainly one for exotics and a smokies show. 

Box 4 – Landyn Bale

Elite sprinter who is blessed with an electric acceleration off the mat. Sensational strike rate as a 15-time winner from just 28 starts and already a FFA customer most weeks. Showed dazzling speed off the 8 last week to set up victory with a 5.05 early. Let rip again through the back before tiring a fraction in the run home. That’s the only issue for him outside of the tricky draw and while he went fast time, punters will need to see him on the arm early. If he gets it, will take all sorts of running down with no noted booming run home types in this. Start everything and if he nails it, that’s 3/4s of the battle won. Huge show. 

Box 5 – Lovaz Bale

The rank outsider and while he also produced a 5.05 to set up a heat win, he had the 8 dog run cover blocking the threats in the run which allowed this bloke to hang on. Can step however and heads left so he can be a factor early here in the run to the first turn. Will need luck after that to get away and hang on and simply doesn’t run the time required to win this year’s cup. 

Box 6 – Fernando Mick

What a tremendous campaigner this bloke is. 34 time winner and a proper greyhound that just doesn’t know how to run a bad race. Fastest first section in the heats when he carved out a 5.02 and sustains it like only good dogs do in a 29.66 overall. Will again look to spear and go fast and while he needs his best first section, he has the draw where he likes some room and can rush over to be a force. If he leads clearly, he will take no end of stopping then. Tough, chases hard and never gives up. Can win and will be there if he repeats last week. 

Box 7 – Victa Damian 

SA visitor who has been the recipient of a lot of hype. Let’s have some perspective though. He won the weakest National Derby in my opinion in some time, then had Box 1 in his heat when given the charmed first turn run while 30.20 dogs who need the arm to do even that, bumped each other out of it. Went on to win in fast time and while he showed some very good signs in the run, the box now sees if he can handle any sort of pressure. 5.16 to the mark last week was the slowest first section and these dogs won’t give him what he got in terms of luck at the first turn. Let’s looks at some positives for his supporters. Tremendous turn of foot off the mat, good field sense beyond his years and has developed a very good last section when on the arm. There are fast dogs, then there are good dogs, and he is one of them and this is his next stepping stone on his way to the other. Just needs too much luck with the dogs drawn around him and his best chance will be to sweep around first turn with inside trouble which as mentioned, is less likely to happen this week. He has some chance if that happens and if he takes the front through the back, he can race away with the cup. While he can absolutely win, i don’t want to be on a dog needing this much luck chasing 29.60/70 and hasn’t faced a proper group 1 field yet. 

Box 8 – Baby Jaycee

Sublime performance in her heat when exploding out of box 4 to go 5.05 then drop 17.63 off the back to set up a fastest heat win of 29.65 holding off the strong Titan Blazer. Outstanding bitch who sets the clock alight when she’s on and her run at Ballarat three starts ago was as big as you will see. Box the problem here and would need to come out running again to follow Mick over in 6 to get her chance. Has raced and beaten the best dogs in two states already and still yet to have 30 starts. Priced at $8 which is generous, to replicate what she did last week. In saying that, the box will see her needing luck to cross cleanly as not only the 6 can show dash, but so can the 4 and 5. Trainer as astute as they come and he will have her ready but the fact remains the 8 is hard to win from and there is enough doubt for her to get over here. Will punch up early but first turn trouble might ensue here so prepared to risk. 

Selections and Summary: 1, 6, 3, 4

Not a vintage cup field but a competitive one all the same. I am putting the 1 on top. He has those magic words….”a sense of timing” about him. He has the box to drive up here and at worst be 3rd into the back. Runs time, doesn’t need to lead and gets the right map. Great EW show and can win. The 6 goes in for 2nd, because he’s a star and just the consummate competitor. Has all the attributes to win any race and will look threatening if he steps his usual. The 3 is the knockout blow here. His middle section is where we see him stake his claim and any trouble up the back will see him capitalise at big odds and put himself in it. Can hit the dais. The 4 rounds them out. Blistering turn of foot and will look for the arm early. Could sneak away here and will look the winner if he leads clearly at the top. The 2 has a tricky map, the 5 can’t run the time to win, the 7 needs too much luck as does the 8 even though both can run the time. Good race, several hopes and good luck to all. 

FANTA BALE SUPER STAYERS: RUNNER-BY-RUNNER

Box 1 – Korda

On pace stayer who has rarely run a bad race since stepping up. Has good box manners and some early toe but he doesn’t have much in terms of middle and run home sections as he is more of a one bat type of stayer. This makes his job hard when he is headed early but when he leads, he just keeps kicking and can be hard to get past. Will give a sight but this race has some genuine speed so prepared to risk. 

Box 2 – Ariarne Bale

Another front runner who arguably produced her best staying performance to date with an all the way win in her heat last week in comfortable fashion. Has had some issues with the last part of the long distance trip in the past but has really found a bit more lately and will drive up hard to try and take the arm before the first turn. Momentum the key with her as she is not a stop start type of dog but she will look a threat if she crosses and holds early here.

Box 3 – Golden Ratio

Ran out of her skin in her heat to finish strongly for 2nd behind the 2. Enigmatic doesn’t begin to describe this highly talented bitch but one thing is in her favour, and that’s this track where she seems to do her better work. She will dive to the fence and wait for runs and one thing you can be sure of is that she will just keep coming if given a chance to gain momentum. The rank outsider and probably should be but do not be surprised if she is running into this off the back and hits the dais. Knockout hope and place chance at least. 

Box 4 – Stagger Out Lee 

Again showed her liking for racing in Victoria with a superb effort to win her heat. Stepped quickly which made her job all but done and much the same here as she has few rivals in the run home department over this trip. Has a flat spot through the middle but seems to run through that out wide avoiding any trouble and gets back into her work for the last section. Will pass more than most in this late but the box is the concern and how far she gets back through the middle. If she’s close however, they best look over their shoulders as it will only be a matter of time. Can win, should place. 

Box 5 – Golden Quest

I am not entirely sure what market framers were watching last week when putting up the double figures for this girl in this final. 4.87 fastest first split and held all but Stagger Out Lee who took a long time to get her. You know what get here. Spears out, goes fast and runs them along. Much stronger as her career has progressed and while she needs to lead to win, or at least be right there with something that doesn’t run it out as strong, she is anything but a $14 shot and for that reason, she’s a bet and goes on top. Great each-way play because if she does find the arm, she runs better time than most and will hold on for a place. However, expect her to do much more than that if she leads solo with a lap to go. Great chance. 

Box 6 – Aston Velvet

Kennel mate to the 5 who had Box 1 when leading throughout last week. Not entirely convinced she’s a genuine 730m dog but does have very good form here and goes fast early and mid race. Didn’t have a lot chasing her last week in terms of run home types and was able to get tired and still win. Must lead to win, no exceptions there. Will have trouble crossing some of these but will be there early pressing for that advantage first turn. Needs a little too much to go right for her at the current quote and prepared to risk even though she is a show. 

Box 7 – Mepunga Ruby

Her record of 25 wins and 15 placings from 49 starts says it all. Supreme stayer at her top and while she is probably not at her brilliant best, she is not far off it. Stays and has early burn but clearly has a tough draw here and better served inside. Heat run was good from the same draw and will have to begin better than ever to get over here. Not really known to run on from the back but if she got a position close early, she would be a chance. Her class takes her a long way as it does in all big races and can’t be dismissed here. Her best would win. 

Box 8 – Cawbourne Magic 

If this race was run just six weeks ago, this bloke would be $1.30 and punters nation-wide would be chips in. A lot can happen in a short time in greyhound racing and while he is not racing poorly, he is certainly not the same dog he was a month ago. Getting back and not charging through the last section right now has to be the major concern, however he is in a kennel that knows their dogs inside out and he will be here to compete and if he does bring his best, these are in trouble and gone. There is no indication he is there though and  while his draw is good, a fair amount of trust is needed to get involved with him. Can win, should win, but enough questions to level this discussion right out at the current quote. 

Selections and Summary: 5, 4, 3, 8

Incredibly even race which is why the market is the punters friend here. The 5 goes on top. At the double figures, she just demands attention because she can lead and win. At the very least she is an EW bet. The 4 is strong and in this field that means plenty. Untouched, she will take some holding out and nothing will hit the line harder. I’m going to put the 3 in because she just might get the first turn run here on the fence and as the outsider, she can at least get into the placings with a little luck. The 8 rounds out the first four because his best walks in. The kennel doesn’t bring them unless they are ready and if he does bring his A game, this will be over up the back. Just a fraction too short right now but don’t ignore him. Good field to contest this race named after one of the great stayers of the last 20 years. 

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