Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Carnarvon Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

LE WREN gets a wonderful opportunity to break through on Cup Day. Sat up over the speed last start at 1400m and was always going to be a query at the end of that distance (all previous 11 starts at 1200 or less) and was only nabbed late in the race. Should nearly kick through to lead and the Martinan claim helps. LUNA NOBEL a big improver here. Blinkers on and Tash Faithfull on are two of the biggest gear changes in country racing. No surprise to see her bounce back. BETTER IN KIT should only improve for the dirt experience. BEST TESTIMONY is going well but may need further.

Numbers: 4 – 5 – 3 – 1

Suggested Bet – LE WREN WIN

Same Race Multi – Le Wren (Top 3) + Luna Nobel (Top 3)

RACE 2

THE WITCH DOCTOR has promised to win a race all season but is yet to pinch one. Has gone close on many occasions and think that she’s best kept at the 1000m because she only has a short, sharp burst of speed. Looks to get the right run here. THE FULL QUID was up to her old tricks last start when missing away hopelessly. Was a huge effort from there to pick up as much ground as she did and get as close to the winner as she did in the finish. Not an easy mare to trust (or catch). HERITAGE SASH must lump a full 64kg here. Clearly has no worries carrying 62kg (winner and narrow second with that weight) but every extra kilo makes it tougher. KRAMDEN always a chance in this grade.

Numbers: 4 – 6 – 1 – 2

Suggested Bet – THE WITCH DOCTOR WIN

RACE 3

OFF THIS PLANET marched into the race powerfully two starts ago and descended upon them to win by over 5.5L. Went straight from a maiden into a 56+ and lost the services of the regions #1 rider. Back into a C1, Tash Faithfull back into the saddle and the kind of horse who is suited to chiming in three deep with cover. CYCLONICAL has been hit and miss out of the barriers all season. If she jumps, she’s a live chance. If she doesn’t, it’s game over. ROEY CLAM is only a Junction maiden winner but it would be no surprise to see him march forwad and control the tempo. PRORATED is racing really well.

Numbers: 2 – 8 – 3 – 6

Suggested Bet – OFF THIS PLANET WIN

RACE 4

OUR INSIDER, MORDOR and HUMAN NATURE ran the trifecta in the 1000m feature at the last Carnarvon meeting. They meet again here at 1200m and there’s a 3kg weight swing in favour of Mordor (against Our Insider) and a 1.5kg weight swing in favour of Mordor (against Human Nature). Think that with the weight swings and the extra 200m that he can turn the tables. OUR INSIDER should kick through and lead for noted front running rider Simone Altieri. Always hard to run down. HUMAN NATURE continues to race well and gets the services of a senior. ZEEWIJK gives every indication he’ll measure up in this grade.

Numbers: 4 – 5 – 1 – 6

Suggested Bet – MORDOR WIN

RACE 5

WOODBUG put two together leading throughout to win a pair of 56+ 1200m races. Last start was unable to find the front after being awkwardly away and from there was never really a winning chance. Think that he can hold out the early challenge of Prince Saiyan and Carolina Reaper who are drawn to his outside and if he can hold the top he’s hard to run down. PRINCE SAIYAN was well found in betting last start and duly saluted. No reason he can’t back it up. EMPIRE KHAN was huge at his return to racing and now gets 4.5kg off his back with the Luke Campbell claim. MYBAK is coming out of quality form at Roebourne. Didn’t fire in the feature but this is 5L easier.

Numbers: 1 – 6 – 8 – 2

Suggested Bet – WOODBUG WIN

RACE 6

DASHING IMAGE won a 68+ at Derby, finished third in a 70+ at Broome (behind dance Cockey and Turbo Power), finished second to Native Chimes in a 58+ and then went to Kununurra for the Cup and never travelled. Drops into a 56+, gets the services of Alan Kennedy and dropping back to 1400m might be a blessing in disguise. Nice race for him. PASSPORT and THE DIVINE WIND both clashed last start and there was very little between them when running the quinella. 1kg in favour of The Divine Wind here. NERO CHIN CHIN was disappointing last start.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 3 – 4

Suggested Bet – DASHING IMAGE EACHWAY

RACE 7

BLOCK OF LAND was all the rage going into the Broome Cup after a huge win in Roebourne in the Port Hedland Cup. He was beaten a long way from home and faded back through the field. Freshened up, back to 2000m and Aaron Pateman enjoying a season to remember (going at 23% strike rate and 51% POT). Think he can cross these and bounce back. NATIVE CHIMES is absolutely flying. Her win at Broome from off the speed at a mile was excellent and then she stalked a crazy speed and got away from them in the finish to win last start at 1700. Has to do it with 60kg at 2000 in the Carnarvon Cup but she’s in form at the right time. OMBUDSMAN won the Broome Cup in a slog and then Butterlea Lad made the form look good in Newman. ARNIE’S BOY is an intriguing addition.

Numbers: 5 – 1 – 2 – 3

Suggested Bet – BLOCK OF LAND EACHWAY

RACE 8

LOOKING GREAT is racing in career best form as a 10 year old. Won a 56+ 1400 when leading and running them into the ground (6L faster than average), won a 56+ 1700 when leading and running them into the ground (5L faster than average) and then came upstuck last start in a 68+ 1700 when setting them alight in the middle stages (9L faster than 68+ average). Entitled to fade out of it but kept fighting into third behind Native Chimes. 62kg is an ask but he’ll kick through, lead and roll. TEST OF STRENGTH is drawn wide but is versatile. He’s been in form all season. BOLD VICTORY was well found last start and erupted on straightening. BIG BLOWS is always competitive in this grade.

Numbers: 3 – 7 – 8 – 2

Suggested Bet – LOOKING GREAT WIN

Quaddie (Race 5 – 8)

1,2,6,8

1,2,3

1,2,3,4,5,9,13

2,3,7,8

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