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Digby’s AFL Round 14 Preview

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

TIPS

Adelaide, Sydney, Port Adelaide, GWS, Western Bulldogs, West Coast, Geelong, Richmond, St Kilda

MULTI

GWS and Geelong to win and Richmond to win by under 39.5 points against Carlton at $2.68

NOVELTY

Matt Crouch to earn most disposals in Group A in Adelaide v Hawthorn match at $4.25

FRIDAY

Sydney v Essendon, SCG 5.50pm

Essendon were full of confidence heading into their bye following a 70-point flogging of Port Adelaide at Etihad Stadium. It was a performance that saw them re-enter the finals conversation after impressive wins earlier in the year against Geelong and West Coast. The challenge confronting John Worsfold’s men is to pick up where they left off.

And that will be no easy feat against Sydney, who it must be said, are warming to their work. A week after demolishing the Western Bulldogs, the Swans gunned down Richmond after half-time last Saturday. The ability of Sydney’s midfield to up the ante and hunt the Tigers in the final 60 minutes proved too much for the hosts in a timely reminder of their capabilities.

Sydney dodged a bullet in regards to the availability of Lance Franklin after his heavy bump on Connor Menadue. That spells bad news for the Bombers, who have been on the receiving end of some headline-grabbing displays by the WA spearhead, both as a Hawk and now a Swan. Factor in this game being at the SCG and it’s easy to see why the Swans have been installed raging favourites.

VERDICT: Sydney by 29 points

SATURDAY

Collingwood v Port Adelaide, MCG 11.45am

Ten weeks. That could well be how long Nathan Buckley has at the helm of Collingwood. But if the Magpies are able to bring the same effort and attitude that they did in a string of weeks before their mid-season bye, Buckley might just be able to extend his tenure.

As it most weeks, there is no escaping this is a big game for Buckley and his side. The inability to pocket victories most thought they should have leaves the Magpies with precious little wriggle room if they are to play finals. Port Adelaide were overlooked by many to return to the post-season but, their poor display against Essendon at their most recent outing aside, they have been as consistent as any team in the competition.

The Power defend well, have an excellent midfield working at the feet of the in-form Paddy Ryder and have genuine weapons in attack, notably Charlie Dixon, Robbie Gray and Chad Wingard. Collingwood will again have to make do without Jamie Elliott (ankle), but will fancy their own quality midfield to make a telling contribution. The Power’s last-start display was too bad to be true and if they can recapture a level resembling their best, they should have enough weapons to sneak home.

VERDICT: Port Adelaide by 14 points

Brisbane v GWS, Gabba 2.35pm

Long-suffering Brisbane fans can finally see the light — and it isn’t a runaway steam train coming through a tunnel. Fresh off a dismantling of Fremantle, the Lions ventured to Adelaide Oval and were highly competitive against Port Adelaide, a side jostling for a berth inside the top four. It’s just as well Brisbane are on the improve, given Greater Western Sydney make the trip north for this contest.

The Giants are at another level again and even though they have fresh injury concerns surrounding Jacob Hopper and Josh Kelly, still look to possess too many guns in key areas to drop a second successive game after their slip-up to Carlton in round 12. A refreshed Shane Mumford will ensure Stefan Martin and the raw, but exciting Archie Smith are feeling the effects of a physical battle as the game wears on. And if that is the case, then the likes of Callan Ward, Dylan Shiel, Tom Scully and Lachie Whitfield will service a forward line dripping with talent — both in the air and at ground level.

VERDICT: GWS by 34 points

Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne, Etihad Stadium 5.25pm

Can the Western Bulldogs players meet the demands of coach Luke Beveridge and salvage their premiership defence or do they follow the lead of Essendon (1994) and Hawthorn (2009) and fade meekly into the background after earlier than expected flag success? It seems a tad premature to be posing such a question given the Bulldogs, like all of their 17 rivals, have only played 12 games this season. But there is no escaping what the football world witnessed at Etihad Stadium last Sunday.

The Bulldogs were abhorrent and lacked the structure, skill level and desire we saw in a breathtaking final four weeks of the season in 2016. Unless Beveridge can weave some magic, it will be a case of too little, too late. But after what North Melbourne dished up against St Kilda last week — an error-riddled display that wasn’t worthy of the Friday night stage — the premiers might just get a week’s reprieve. These two sides have been involved in some absorbing duels in recent times, including their historic Good Friday clash earlier in the season. Sadly for both sets of supporters, the two teams are a long way removed from that level at present.

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs by 19 points

West Coast v Melbourne, Domain Stadium 5.40pm

West Coast set a baseline that was impossible to ignore in their win over Geelong last Thursday night. Granted, the Cats were missing Tom Hawkins (suspended) and lost Scott Selwood and Nakia Cockatoo to hamstring injuries during the course of the match. But the Eagles’ pressure and willingness to play an uncompromising, physical brand rarely seen under Adam Simpson, made the league sit up and take notice.

Talking of taking notice, those who don’t believe Melbourne aren’t a side on the march should set aside two hours and watch a replay of their effort opposed to the Western Bulldogs last Sunday. With a midfield headed up Jack Viney, Christian Petracca, Jordan Lewis, Clayton Oliver and Nathan Jones — prior to his serious quad injury — holding sway, and the dare and physicality in defence of Jayden Hunt and Michael Hibberd, the Demons looked every bit a finals team.

They will be bolstered by the return of All-Australian ruckman Max Gawn, but return to WA knowing they are setting foot on a ground they haven’t won at since 2004. The Eagles will have the added benefit of an extra few days rest and look a far more potent outfit now that Lewis Jetta has recaptured some of his best form.

VERDICT: West Coast by 20 points

SUNDAY

Geelong v Fremantle, Simonds Stadium 11.10am

Fremantle limped to the bye with three successive losses and unless Ross Lyon has found a solution to his side’s travel woes, coupled with tardy first quarters, that streak will be stretched to four by the time the final siren sounds in this contest. Geelong at home are a daunting proposition for opposition teams and they will take great comfort in heading to their surgically enhanced venue where they beat the Western Bulldogs, Port Adelaide and Adelaide in consecutive matches before succumbing to West Coast.

The availability of full-forward Tom Hawkins is significant, while the midfield class of Patrick Dangerfield and Joel Selwood looms large. Selwood is gettable from a tagging perspective, as we saw with the Eagles’ Mark Hutchings, and whether Lyon is willing to adopt a similar practice, most likely with Connor Blakely, will be interesting. Fremantle clearly need to find a way to manufacture more goals, even taking into account Lyon’s defence-first attitude. A bad loss here could see a swag of young Dockers earn exposure in the remainder of the season — if they aren’t already chosen for this match.

VERDICT: Geelong by 38 points

Richmond v Carlton, MCG 1.20pm

Richmond fans can be proud of their side’s competitiveness in 2017, but equally dismayed at it’s inability to close out games it should have won — not once, not twice, not three times, but four separate occasions. The capitulation to Sydney last weekend was extremely disheartening for everyone associated with Richmond given how good they were for the opening half and in Alex Rance’s case, the entire match.

As Tigers fans woke up on Sunday wondering what went wrong, Carlton supporters greeted the start of the new week full of optimism. And few could begrudge them that right. The Blues were outstanding at Metricon Stadium to defeat Gold Coast, a victory made all the more meritorious given they found themselves trailing in the last quarter as they fought momentum and emotion after Michael Barlow broke a leg.

But the effort of Bryce Gibbs against the Suns was magnificent. Not only did Gibbs find plenty of the football — as he has done for the bulk of his career — but his defensive work and leadership was first rate. The Blues will need more of that and for his fellow leaders to stand tall against a Richmond side that is doing a lot of things right. Those who like shootouts might be best served to look elsewhere, but if you are a football lover, this is a must-watch. It has been a while since a Richmond v Carlton match has had that label attached to it.

VERDICT: Richmond by 17 points

St Kilda v Gold Coast, Etihad Stadium 2.40pm

It wasn’t pretty, but St Kilda coach Alan Richardson wasn’t the least bit perturbed in the wake of his charges’ win over North Melbourne last Friday night. Though the Saints weren’t at their best, their dominance probably wasn’t truly reflected on the scoreboard by game’s end, with the Kangaroos adding some semblance of respectability with a last-quarter fightback.

Having been ordinary in their three previous weeks, it was a win the Saints just needed to have and could be the result that triggers a strong second half to the season as we saw with them 12 months ago. It is unlikely that Jack Steven will be as quiet again, while the combination of Josh Bruce, Tim Membrey and Nick Riewoldt appears St Kilda’s best key-forward set-up at this stage.

As for the Suns, they head south desperately needing a win to salvage their season which took an enormous hit at home courtesy of Carlton. The disappointing loss to the Blues was compounded by Michael Barlow’s broken leg and Matt Rosa’s suspension. Gary Ablett will make his 300th appearance and would dearly love to celebrate with a win, but the spread of contributors from a Gold Coast perspective needs to improve out of sight for that to occur.

VERDICT: St Kilda by 30 points

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