Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

SUCCESS PLAY was scratched from Wednesday to save for this and strikes one of the weaker 3 year old SWP Saturday fields we are likely to see in the next few months. Ran well enough first-up in a far tougher race (Searchin’ Roc’s, Fine Romance, Forever Autumn) to suggest that in a lesser field from an ideal draw he should be hard to beat. SECRET DEPLOY was also scratched on Wednesday to avoid clashing with the stablemate and eventual winner Celevacci and the eye-catching grey has wound up nicely at trials. BORN TO BE LUCKY didn’t get into the race last start from a tricky position. KELLY’S LASSIE went alright first-up and then moderately at Kal when finding traffic.

Numbers: 2 – 3 – 5 – 6

Suggested Bet – SUCCESS PLAY WIN

RACE 2

ZARATITE vs TREASURED CROWN round 3. If you’ve been getting involved in Zaratite at the shorts you’d be filthy on life but from a tipping perspective we’ll go one (last) more time. Held tight in a pocket bolting two starts ago and never got out. Meets Treasured Crown 5kg better at the weights for that encounter. Last start Treasured Crown simply relished the Heavy10 conditions and never looked like stopping. One more go for ZARATITE. TREASURED CROWN has beaten him at their last two outings and see no reason why he can’t win again. If you’ve been following him you’ll be on him again. TRUE ATTRACTION was spinning the wheels horribly last time they all met on the Heavy10. Soft6 different ball game. COME PLAY WITH ME is a Group 1 winner but 64kg is a huge ask.

Numbers: 5 – 4 – 3 – 1

Suggested Bet – ZARATITE WIN

RACE 3

LOOKS LIKE MAGIC was eye catching at her first start for Bruce Hyde over 1000m. Followed it up last start at 1200m when letting down powerfully late in the piece when gunning down talented and tough front runner Ohbeeh. That form held up on Wednesday with Ohbeeh pushing in form mare Jag The Joker and Looks Like Magic should only be getting better stepping to 1400m. Tucked away in behind the leaders she gets a soft run and is flying. SPEEDY MISS has shown throughout her preparation that these Westspeed Platinum races are the perfect grade for her. Impossible to knock any of her recent form and she seems to run for Bennett. BLAZING AWAY took the step from maiden company into C3 and now into 58+. Finds the breeze again and is racing well from that position. BLAZING PASSION leads without any weight.

Numbers: 4 – 1 – 2 – 6

Suggested Bet – LOOKS LIKE MAGIC EACHWAY

RACE 4

NOBEL LAURENCE comes from a high rating 3 year old 62+ which has proven to be a hot form reference with subsequent 66+ winner Reign of Fire and subsequent 3 year old 62+ winner Jedi Mind both winning out of the race already. William Pike picks up the plumb ride with Lucy Warwick holidaying in Broome and this progressive youngster is getting better and better with racing. He loves sit sprint racing and Pike rides those horses brilliantly. OUQBA TED has been trialling the house down. Anyone who watches and follows trials will have been licking their lips waiting for him to return. Looks to be back bigger and better. PEPPJACK and RECHARGER are both consistent, older types who back up and get weight relief.

Numbers: 3 – 1 – 7 – 8

Suggested Bet – NOBEL LAURENCE WIN

RACE 5

STRATHMORE ROSE is the weight horse in this field with the claim for Madi Derrick throwing out some huge swings to the tune of 3kg on Blazing Billy and 1.5kg on First Law. Drawn the inside gate, has tactical speed to hold a position in running and with Olga Louisa likely to roll along throughout Madi Derrick should enjoy the tow ball run. Big chance to farewell WA with a winner. OLGA LOUISA is always a hard mare to run down when she finds a rain affected track without a lot of pressure. Gets those conditions here. BLAZING BILLY has always looked a Saturday horse in the making. Pike will need to be good from that barrier. FIRST LAW was an interesting run to assess last start. Rarely do they tail off over 1000 and let down like he did late.

Numbers: 5 – 2 – 3 – 1

Suggested Bet – STRATHMORE ROSE WIN

RACE 6

LONSDALE LADY hasn’t been seen for over a month since her impressive victory in a fast run 72+ over Zaratite and Bad Wolf. Scratched 31/7/2021 with an elevated temperate which is always a slight red flag but provided she hasn’t lost any residual fitness or missed any work she should be hard to beat in this and likely opens an eachway quote. First-up run was far better than it looks on paper, second-up win was huge and this looks an even race. VITAL FLIRT did not get conditions to suit last week. First 1000m was run 16L slower than average and from there she was never a hope. Forgive and forget. Previous form excellent. PICTURE PERFECT was backed heavily last start to beat The Spruiker. Didn’t fire a shot. Shades on first time. KELLY’S CALLISTO is going great guns. Super honest type.

Numbers: 2 – 6 – 5 – 1

Suggested Bet – LONSDALE LADY EACHWAY

RACE 7

SILKINIZE has beaten Cliffs of Comfort home in two of their three previous encounters and his runs off 7 days have been electric. Willing to forgive last week when he was caught up in a pocket inside Phoneme and William Pike, unable to build any momentum and laying in against Kyra Yuill until the race was all over. Following up. CLIFFS OF COMFORT is a hugely talented front runner who should have no issues clearing them to find the front first-up over 1200m. Boasts a narrow second placing in a 78+ to Celebrity Queen (beating home Money Matters) when last in work. REIGN OF FIRE let down brilliantly to score last start. That’s the horse we’ve been waiting to see again. DON’T FUSS can box seat on the back of Cliffs of Comfort and ran well in the Jockey Celebration Sprint.

Numbers: 8 – 4 – 7 – 1

Suggested Bet – SILKINIZE EACHWAY

RACE 8

INDIAN PACIFIC will have punters divided as he returns to racing with 61.5kg first-up at 1200m. Undefeated first-up over three career preparations, trialled like the Group horse that he is, placed over 1200m down the straight at Flemington in a Group 1 last campaign and did beat Windstorm with 60kg in his 3 year old days. On the other hand, concedes big weight to immensely talented types like Samizdat, Son of a God and many others. SON OF A GOD has a massive 7.5kg pull in the weights and a barrier draw from which to stalk him throughout running. Goes enormous fresh and promised to win a Listed race all preparation when last in work. SAMIZDAT trialled super for his return and on his day is one of the most brilliant get back sprinters in the State. TELLEM WE’RE COMIN finds a new home with Danny Morton and if he can rejuvenate the 7 year old he’s good enough to win this.

Numbers: 1 – 11 – 4 – 8

Suggested Bet – INDIAN PACIFIC WIN

RACE 9

BRAVE DREAM has been knocking on the door all preparation and looks to have struck an open and even race in which to finally break through. Backed heavily last start with W.Pike on and luck simply didn’t go her way. CJP returns to the saddle, a rider who has had success previously on the mare and while she is going to get back there should be a half decent tempo on up front for her. Looks ready to win. MR DELEGATOR absolutely walked them last week to the point where he brough the others into the race. Talented type who will be winning his fair share of races. ABERDEEN QUEEN is proving a hard mare to place at the moment. In a tough part of her career where she’s going round short for a mare who isn’t winning races. SEMINOLE BRAVE looks to be slowly but surely building.

Numbers: 10 – 3 – 1 – 5

Suggested Bet – BRAVE DREAM WIN

Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)

1,2,3,4,5,6
4,7,8
1,4,8,11
1,3,4,5,10

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