Punters Pointers: Racing Edition with Chris Nelson, Scott Embry and David Shortte
Need some handy hints to get you started?
We asked our TABradio experts and savvy TABtouch customers to get their pointers for betting on Racing and Sport!
Click here for this week’s tips across every code in racing!
Thoroughbred Pointers from Chris Nelson
Watch as many videos as you possibly can
In an age where we are all time poor, watching replays of races can be time consuming. If you can lock in a certain amount of time each day/week I guarantee you will reap the rewards. Sectional times, weights, class etc. etc. all have their place in the melting pot of form however you can’t go past what you see with your own eyes. Look for horses making ground in slowly run races, holding on after racing on speed in fast run races, those that are doing their best work through the line. The list is endless, you’ll eventually get a feel for what you’re looking for, that will lead to success.
Find replays in the TABtouch app! Use the calendar picker to find the race day, location and race, and click the ‘Replay’ button.
Focus on horses who race on speed.
Particularly in races up to 1200m where the winner around 70% of the time (depending on the track) will settle in the first four. Check speed maps, preferably do your own, there’s too many well-trained smart horses these days who can park close & still finish strongly, it’s just too hard for the backmarkers to make up the necessary ground, those backmarkers also have to deal with traffic & tempo issues. Why do you think Tommy Smith & the Waterhouse/Bott combination have had so much success? 9 times out 10 their horses either lead or settle very close to it.
Find Speed Maps on every race in the TABtouch app! Head to an upcoming race and press the ‘Giddy-Up button.
Don’t be guided by the market.
Whilst this can be an important factor very late in betting I’m not a fan of looking at odds before ‘doing the form’. If you do go down this path your brain will always lead you back to the favourites & there goes 90% your value. Gambling on horses is all about trying to find those in the market who have been underestimated & therefore overlooked by the majority of the betting public. Analyse your form first then have a look through & note down any major differences between your thoughts & the markets, you may discover the favourite is a runner you feel has a very small chance of winning the race. Had you looked at the market first I doubt you’d be thinking the same way.
Thoroughbred Pointers from Scott Embry
Drop In Grade
‘Keep yourself in the best company and your horse in the worst’, is a loosely worded phrase bantered around race tracks worldwide. What it means is that trainers will always try to find the best (usually weakest) race for their horse and one of the key indicators for punters is to locate horses who are dropping back in grade. At the most high level, in WA there is a Class and Ratings system: C1 = Class One = having won one or less races, C3 = Class Three = having won three or less races, and so on; while 60+, 66+, 72+ or 78+ indicate the handicap rating at which a race is weighted (higher rated = higher weight = handicap). A horse drops in grade when it races in a lower class or rated race than its previous start and that indicates that the opposition is considered weaker. These horses are often worth great consideration as they’re racing against inferior horses compared to recent runs.
Rider Change
One of the most popular punters tools is comparing riders from start to start. Personally, I find that apprentice riders (typically younger, less experienced riders) have a poor strike rate in races greater than 1600m. This is an observation made over many years specific to WA racing and whether it is because those horses require more vigorous riding in distance races or a wiser mind as to when to make a tactical move into the race it’s definitely something to watch. So a senior rider replacing a junior (apprentice) rider might mean that a horse rises in weight, but the experience they bring to the saddle often balances that out, or even exceeds it in value.
Get a ton of jockey stats at punters.com!
Gear Changes
A lot of punters follow gear changes religiously, and often specific gear changes to specific trainers. WA punters will be acutely aware that Simon Miller’s horses improve significantly when Blinkers are applied for the first time – a gear change that usually leads to considerable market support. Watching for gear changes and identifying trends/patterns is a popular piece to the form puzzle for many players.
Greyhound Pointers from David Shortte
Take note of the Grades of races and always pay enormous respect for a greyhound dropping in Grade.
For the uninitiated: all greyhounds start as Maiden Greyhounds (i.e. compete against other dogs that have never won a race) and then each win thereafter they elevate in Grade from Grade 6 right up to Grade 1, and Group Racing if they are real stars. This varies from state to state, but at any point in that journey, if a runner has a sequence of unplaced runs, the greyhound will drop a grade to easier company. That is where dogs can improve sharply, and quite often at good odds! In sporting term terms it is similar to a regular first-Grade Cricketer dropping to second or third Grade, where they often then dominate and regain confidence.
Watch out for greyhounds that run lots of placings but very rarely win.
Greyhound racing worldwide has chasers who are happy to run up to the leaders but aren’t overly keen to go past the leaders. These greyhounds are regularly ignored by a big portion of the punting public because of their poor winning hit rate but that allows them to regularly get out to very big place prices where they become very valuable for place betting and novelty betting.
