Races

Michael Heaton’s Wednesday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Michael Heaton

RACE 1

IT SURE IZ showed some tactical speed to sit handy in her recent trial and finished off well enough to run second. Tash Faithfull can find the front here and control proceedings in what is an extremely thin five-horse affair. IF I DIN HAVADIME won back-to-back 400m trials before a luckless race debut when posted three-wide and without cover in Saturday grade. Drops back to a moderate midweek here and should take some beating. READY SET DANCE finished off well in her 1000m trial before coming from back in the field to be beaten only 4L and beat home If I Din Haveadime on debut. NOBLE INFLUENCE looks leggy and raw but comes from an in-form 2YO yard and looks the next best.

Numbers: 5 – 3 – 4 – 2

Suggested Bet – IT SURE IZ WIN

RACE 2

DEETEA has always shown a level of ability. Settled on-speed when beating Lucky Sue two starts ago before stepping up to Saturday grade last time out and failing. Back to a midweek here and she should have a significant field position advantage over her main rival which can give her the edge. LUCKY SUE ran the fastest closing sectionals of the day when second to Dee Tea then romped in a weak maiden by 5L last time out. She’s likely to have both main dangers in front of her but she’s capable of a strong finish. GREY MISTRESS has finished off well at her last two outings and should get a nice run midfield-with-cover. STAR POWER has been freshened up after failing at 1200m last start and the drop back to 1000m suits.

Numbers: 4 – 5 – 3 – 7

Suggested Bet – DEETEA WIN

RACE 3

SABINO was a sharp improver second-up in WA when dropping back from 1300 to 1200m. Jumped out of the ground late to rip late ground off the talented Brave Venture, now backs up off seven days and finds a race within minimal speed. He led two of his last four starts before coming to WA so he should be able to settle close to the speed and have a big head start over the enigmatic Sunny Honey. SUNNY HONEY continues to jump poorly and have his chances decided in the first 20m of his races. Ran the second-fastest closing splits in the Placid Ark Stakes at this distance two starts ago before going better than reads on paper in the Group 2 WA Guineas last time out. Well-placed back into a C3 and David Harrison calls on W Pike. BORN TO TALK doesn’t win out of turn but should be able to lead and control proceedings. He was a track-distance winner with 60kg last preparation. THE REPUBLICAN tends to mix his form but this is the right type of race for him to improve sharply in.

Numbers: 4 – 5 – 1 – 2

Suggested Bet – SABINO WIN

RACE 4  

EXTRA SECRET looks very well placed first-up. Trialled up nicely behind Brave Venture, her last six starts are in higher grade, she brings superior formlines to her rivals and she looks like getting a soft map with Pike aboard. Hard to beat. CHAD’S ME DAD interestingly comes back 100m after a fast-finishing first-up run. She’s a 2x 1600m winner so the 1200m second-up might be a bit sharp for her but she can track Extra Secret’s every move in the run. MILITARY BEAT has been going very well since returning to Neville Parnham’s yard. Won back-to-back races in moderate company at York before a solid second to the progressive My Marlaina in a C5 last start. Back into a F&M C3 here and gets in with only 53.5kg. PONYO is a significant class dropper after resuming in a 64+ behind Bitofmerit (and subsequent winner Hardly Ever). Rises only 1kg and should get a lovely map but 1200m is likely to be at her limit second-up.

Numbers: 2 – 5 – 7 – 1

Suggested Bet – EXTRA SECRET WIN

RACE 5

GINGER JONES was an improver second-up in WA when dropping back to 1000m and being able absorb a lot of pressure before holding third place. He gets an near-identical race here but should be able to find the top with a likely steadier tempo and from there he’s the one they’ll have to run down. LEICA JAGUAR has drawn barriers 9, 10 and 9 at his first three runs back from a spell and was held-up at his return before being posted wide and without cover at his last two. Drawn barrier two here, drops in grade off a quick four-day turnaround and has won two of his four starts off seven days or less. It wouldn’t surprise to see him improve sharply. CLASSIC MAGNUS has been flying in the Great Southern. Comes to town now and has to rise 2kg which is a bit stiff but she’s in career-best form. SIR MAMBO races first-up, no trial for renowned improver of tried horses, Summer Dickson. The booking of W Pike catches the eye and his best is good enough but he hasn’t won in almost 1,000 days and is yet to win from 17 starts at Belmont.

Numbers: 1 – 5 – 3 – 4

Suggested Bet – GINGER JONES WIN

RACE 6

SCENIC ECLIPSE ran well on debut when third to Dee Tea and subsequent winner Lucky Sue then jumped to the front, controlled and kicked away for soft win last start. She appears to have some progressiveness, has tactical versatility and can park on the back of the leaders before getting the last crack at them. LADY TORNADO got going late last start and should be able to get a nice cart into this race if she can work into the three-deep line from an awkward draw. The extra 100m suits. BLUE EYED GIRL finally broke through at start number 12 at Pinjarra last time out. She can find the front again here but is likely to be tip-toeing at the end of 1300m and always goes around prohibitively short in the market. RED CADILLAC drops from a C3 to a C1 off seven days and should get the run of the race from the good draw.

Numbers: 4 – 8 – 2 – 6

Suggested Bet – SCENIC ECLIPSE WIN

Same Race Multi – Scenic Eclipse (Top 2) + Lady Tornado (Top 4)

RACE 7

WISE COUNSEL was a big improver second-up in WA and was huge last start. Tramped wide throughout, levelled up to the leader turning for home before hitting the front on straightening and only tired late to go down by 1L. He’s drawn inside the main speed horses here so he should get a more favourable run and he has blinkers re-instated (his only win to date was with blinkers on at Caulfield). MEGAMI was simply dominant in her first-up win over 1650m then appeared to pull too hard and over-do it in a five-horse field last start. Third-up, back 100m and in race with more speed engaged should suit better. LET’S ERUPT has improved at each start for Mitch Pateman and broke through last time out. She can find the top again here and the claim helps her be there for a fair way. DO IT RIGHT savaged the line two starts ago and then was very plain last time out. The four weeks between runs suggests there may have been something amiss so expecting improvement here.

Numbers: 1 – 7 – 6 – 2

Suggested Bet – WISE COUNSEL WIN

Quaddie (Race 4 – 7)

2,5
1,3,4,5,7

1,2,4,6,8

1,2,6,7

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