Races

Michael Heaton’s Saturday Ascot Preview

Posted on | Posted by Michael Heaton

RACE 1

SWINGMAN has returned in great form this campaign and should relish the conditions having won both of his starts on rain-affected tracks (a soft-5 and heavy-8). He chased hard in a fast-run race last week, backs up off 7 days now and should be able to sit outside Kings Court in running then crunch him on straightening. SNITZLATTE resumes first up, no trial and ran a close second to star stablemate Playin’it Sweet with the same lead up last preparation. She was a permanent fixture in stewards reports with luckless runs in feature races after that where she produced some massive efforts in defeat. SLIP THE JAB is 2 from 2 in midweek grade this preparation and now faces the toughest test of his career to date but he drops 2.5kg and the figures he’s been producing should see him measure up. HURRICANE HARLEY is another resuming without a trial and he’s less exposed than his rivals but has some X-factor and an element of progressiveness.

Numbers: 2-1-5-6

Suggested Bet – SWINGMAN WIN

RACE 2

Competitive race for the 2YOs. GOD’S ENCHANTMENT makes his debut off the back of a Monday trial to a Saturday race which isn’t ideal but loved the way he moved in that heat. He was under a strangle hold by Brad Parnham but still travelled strongly and you’d like to think he would handle the wet conditions being by Playing God and out of a McFlirt mare. GOD’S HAMMER was the $450,000 sale topper at last year’s Perth Magic Millions Yearling Sale and looked impressive in his recent trial win once he put his mind on the job. He looks like he’ll eat up every bit of the 1200m on debut and is similarly bred to handle the conditions as a colt by Playing God and being out of a Sessions mare. Fellow debutant ROK ‘N’ ROM has only had one public appearance but couldn’t have done much more. She won her trial nicely and should be able to roll forward to ride the speed with only 53kg after the claim. ONE LAST RESOIRT has the best race form and hails from the state’s leading juvenile stable.

Numbers: 4-5-9-1

Suggested Bet – GOD’S ENCHANTMENT WIN

RACE 3

SENTIMENTAL LEGEND won with a leg in the air in moderate company 2 starts back and was brave in defeat in the J.C. Roberts Stakes last time out. He ended up posted 3-deep in a high-pressure race and gave Aberdeen Flyer the perfect cart up on his back. He now gets a 2kg weight swing on him as well as a much better draw, has always screamed a Derby type and is bred to swim. He can turn the tables. ABERDEEN FLYER was the state’s best maiden prior to breaking through in the J.C. Roberts last start. He was sectionally brilliant in the Lex Piper at his previous outing and is hard to knock. WYNN LAS VEGAS led them a merry dance in his impressive recent maiden win on an on-speed dominated day and is now up 600m but should be able to lead and dictate. DOMINATUS was a bit unlucky last start but was plain as a beaten favourite in the Lex Piper and looks a query at the trip here.

Numbers: 3-1-4-2

Suggested Bet – SENTIMENTAL LEGEND WIN

RACE 4

LUCKY I AM has finished in the money at 15 of her 20 career starts to date and 1100m could well be her sweet spot. She’s a soft-6 and soft-7 winner as well as finishing a narrow second on a heavy-9 track and she looks the toughest of the on-speed types engaged here. GOLD MAKER resumes without a trial and is a very hard horse to catch (1 from 22) but he ran some big races last campaign and typically goes well fresh. He’s never missed the money from 4 starts first up, has placed at 6 of his 7 starts on soft tracks and sneaks into this with 55kg after the claim. DAYTONA PETE looked as though he was in need of his recent trial at Albany and he looks destined to do it tough from the outside gate here but he’s really well placed kicking off in this grade. First up last preparation he was 1.3L off Black Ora in a 3YO 62+. GIRLS DAY OUT is a consistent type but her best performances have been when she’s been able to get a soft lead and she looks likely to cop a fair amount of pressure here.

Numbers: 1-3-2-5

Suggested Bet – LUCKY I AM WIN

RACE 5

FANCY RED is a ripper and won a Belmont Oaks on a heavy-9 track so the conditions shouldn’t worry her. She drops out of the Bunbury Cup last start and she held Asif through the line in her win at this track, grade and distance 2 starts back, meets him 0.5kg better at the weights after the claim for it and her win was more than 3L superior to The Crimson Pirate’s Lex Piper Stakes victory over the same distance on the same day despite carrying 4kg more. THE CRIMSON PIRATE was a Listed winner at this track/distance only 2 starts ago and was brave in the J.C. Roberts last start when chasing a hot speed throughout. He’s a progressive 3YO who looks suited dropping back to a mile and he’ll be hard to beat. ANTIQUE STAR has been underwhelming as a beaten favourite at her first 2 runs back but each her wins to date have been on wet tracks and she’ll appreciate the step to 1600m. ASIF is going very well for the new yard and is a 2-time heavy track winner.

Numbers: 1-8-5-4

Suggested Bet – FANCY RED WIN

RACE 6

MASMELO had a perfect run in the Natasha Stakes and won accordingly but this could end up a carbon copy speed map and race shape for her. She put the writing on the wall for the Listed win with a slashing Ascot 1000 Guineas effort beforehand, should get an ideal run in transit here and she looks the filly best suited by the step to 2400m. WONDERFULLY MADE is the most talented filly in the race but is she the best filly at 2400m? She was ridden for luck from an awkward gate in the Natasha and hit the line super despite going under as the $1.50 favourite but she has been dealt the exact same barrier to contend with now. It may well end up a case of swap the barriers and swap the result? ADMIRE ASTRA gave a lot of cheek when dictating terms in the Natasha and she looks the logical leader again. HEAVENLY RAPTURE made big late ground in the same race and can track Masmelo’s every move.

Numbers: 2-1-3-5

Suggested Bet – MASMELO WIN

Same Race Multi- Masmelo (Top 2) + Admire Astra (Top 3)

Masmelo is capable of doing the Natasha Stakes-WA Oaks double. She looks the best suited filly stepping to 2400m, she looks set to get a very similar run in transit to her last-start Listed triumph and she’s on the second line of betting. Admire Astra gave a lot of cheek in the Natasha and she looks the logical leader where she can dictate terms again and hang on for another top-three finish.

RACE 7

Open race. THE JESTER’S SON is flying and has tactical versatility so he doesn’t necessarily need to find the front in a race like this where there is plenty of natural speed engaged. He was beaten a nose in the Esperance Cup 2 starts back, led and won well at this track/distance last time out and looks capable of measuring up in a 66+ with the way he’s going. INVINCIBLE THIEF was unlucky not to win when resuming from a freshen and getting held up in the straight but then sprouting wings late to run an eye-catching second. She’s yet to prove herself on rain-affected tracks but has won 3 of her past 5 starts, including a Graduation at this track/distance, and looks a mare with upside. NOBLE CONNECTION steps from Westspeed Platinum grade to a 66+ which isn’t easy to do but he’s building up a handy record and is a heavy-8 and soft-7 winner. NOAHQUINTILLY was good first up, no trial in a fast-run 1600m and was competitive in and around this grade last campaign. She has a tough map to overcome with speed draw inside and outside of her but the extra 200m suits and she’s tough as nails.

Numbers: 2-9-1-7

Suggested Bet – THE JESTER’S SON EACH-WAY

RACE 8

TOO DARN STORMY has been freshened since his first up run where he was a beaten favourite but he was sectionally a very good run on an on-speed dominated day and at a distance that looks like will be at the bottom of his range. He looked good in his recent trial, has always promised well above-average ability and is bred to swim being by Too Darn Hot and out of a Metal Storm mare. He can be kept out of trouble from the gate and monster them late. URQUHARTS BLUFF is going great guns at the moment and Paul Jordan’s stable is humming. He stuck on well in a high-rating race won by subsequent winner Malletier 2 starts ago then produced a good figure when sitting 3-deep and still breaking 01:10:00 to win in midweek grade last time out. FIRST BEACH joins Team Gangemi and trialled up nicely when leading throughout recently. He can work his way to the top and he was less than 2.5L off Smooth Chino and Jaz Session at this track, grade and distance at his last start in November. MAIN ACT backs up off 7 days after a fast-finishing effort last week and is better suited stepping to 1200m. He’s a handy type on his day.

Numbers: 9-3-5-6

Suggested Bet – TOO DARN STORMY WIN

RACE 9

WEMBANYAMA was huge first up over an unsuitable 1000m when running home in the fastest closing sectionals of the day. The step to 1400m here is much more in his wheelhouse and he ran second on a heavy-8 track second-up last campaign. Nice race for him. SIMPLY THINKIN’ similarly motored to the line in an eye-catching finish at her last start when less than 2L off subsequent winner King Hit. She drops 2kg staying in the same grade after Nottle’s claim, has won 3 of her 5 starts on soft tracks and should be able to settle a touch closer from the better gate. DUG ANOTHER HOLE drops from a 72+ to a 66+ and is a model of consistency. He’s finished in the money at 8 of his 10 starts at Ascot and should ride the speed. MADAME MAGIC was good first up in a high-rating race and has raced in higher grade at her past 5 starts. She has to lump 60kg now but is suited by the step to 1400m and wasn’t far off some top mares in feature race company last prep.

Numbers: 7-4-6-1

Suggested Bet – WEMBANYAMA WIN

RACE 10

IMMORTAL BLISS was scratched a fortnight ago and is now 5 weeks between runs but he’s a progressive sprinter on the rise. He won well at his first start for the new stable (same track, distance and grade as this), hasn’t started beyond $2.70 at any of his 8 runs in WA so far and handles wet tracks. The conditions look set to suit his racing style and likely settling position by this stage of the day. KING ADVISO has been brave in defeat at his first 2 runs back and is bursting to win a race. He comes out of the high-rating Horcrux race where he set the tempo and they broke the clock at 01:08:84 and his past 3 wins have been on heavy-8, soft-7 and heavy-8 tracks. He gets his chance to go one better if the forecasted south-westerly winds don’t wreak havoc for leaders late in the day. SEPTEMBER BORN resumes first up, no trial and is an entire who has clearly had to work through some issues in his lightly-raced career to date. The former Fairetha Stakes winner has plenty of ability and goes well fresh. HORCRUX has returned at the peak of his powers this preparation but this looks a tough setup having drawn outside a stack of speed, striking an unsuitably-heavy track and losing Pike.

Numbers: 2-6-5-8

Suggested Bet – IMMORTAL BLISS EACH-WAY

Quaddie (Race 7 – 10)

1,2,7,9,11,12

3,5,9

1,2,4,6,7

2,5,6

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