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Digby’s AFL Round 5 Preview

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

Digby’s Preview

Hawthorn v Adelaide

Friday, 5.50pm MCG

Don Pyke’s job to guide Adelaide back to the finals in 2016 was always going to be difficult in the wake of Patrick Dangerfield’s departure to Geelong. And then came the release of the fixtures. The Crows were given the hardest schedule in the competition, featuring a brutal first two months. Having gone 3-1 in the first four weeks and looking extremely effective in doing so, the second half of the equation starts with this genuine blockbuster at the home of football.

The Hawks pulverised the Crows in last year’s semifinal at this ground, but the current Adelaide side is a superior one and the Hawks machine is not yet running on all eight cylinders. Teams which have troubled Hawthorn during their era of authority have been those who are fleet of foot and capable of moving the ball swiftly and efficiently. Adelaide certainly fit that mould, with their dare and overlap from defence enabling a dangerous forward line to wreak havoc.

That said, Hawthorn love nothing more than putting a challenger in its place. They did so against West Coast and found a way to get over the top of the Western Bulldogs in round three when all looked lost at three-quarter time. The added incentive of Shaun Burgoyne playing his 300th AFL game will surely be mentioned by coach Alastair Clarkson. In what promises to be a heavyweight stoush, expect the champs to be standing at the end.

VERDICT: Hawthorn by 15 points

Sydney v West Coast

Saturday, 11.45am SCG

A match-up with Sydney at the SCG is not looked upon kindly by most sides in the competition. And understandably so. But this contest couldn’t have come at a better time for West Coast. Embarrassed by Hawthorn in round two, the Eagles have taken down Fremantle and Richmond in performances which are more akin to what we witnessed last year when they marched to the grand final.

The Swans were terrific against Adelaide and with a slice of good fortune, would host this contest unbeaten. The inside midfield work of Dan Hannebery, Kieren Jack, Josh Kennedy and Luke Parker is outstanding, while the efficiency of their forward line and team defence, headlined by the ever-improving Dane Rampe, cannot be ignored. Given the Eagles were slaughtered midfield by Hawthorn, how they handle the Swans’ pressure will be crucial.

Adam Simpson’s men squeeze the life out of their opposition on the narrow confines of Domain Stadium and will need to get the angles right at the saucer-shaped SCG. The Swans, as you would expect, play the ground particularly well and seem to still create enough one-on-one opportunities for Lance Franklin to terrorise his direct opponent. If the task for West Coast wasn’t hard enough, the forecast of some rain assists the Swans further.

VERDICT: Sydney by 23 points

Gold Coast v North Melbourne

Saturday, 2.35pm Metricon Stadium

North Melbourne have ticked numerous boxes this season on the way to a 4-0 record and a position at the head of the table. To maintain their perfect record and lofty view, they will need to dismiss Gold Coast, their No.1 bogy side. The Suns have won their past three meetings with the Kangaroos, including the corresponding match in round 14 last season by 55 points.

It was a performance which highlighted what the Suns were capable of, but also how low the Kangaroos could fall if they weren’t committed. Suffice to say, North went one way in the wake of that display and the Suns the other. Gold Coast will need to pick themselves up here after the shock loss to Brisbane last weekend, a result that was compounded by the five-week suspension handed down to key defender Steven May. With the Kangaroos’ tall targets in attack, May’s timing couldn’t have been any worse.

Gold Coast were outworked by the Lions and coach Rodney Eade will demand a greater input from his ball carriers. Failure to do so will enable Jack Ziebell, Daniel Wells, Ben Cunnington, Andrew Swallow and Ben Jacobs to win the midfield battle and give their potent forward line enough looks to kick a winning total, even taking into account Gold Coast boasting Tom Lynch, the Coleman Medal leader.

VERDICT: North Melbourne by 28 points

Western Bulldogs v Brisbane

Saturday, 5.25pm Etihad Stadium

The Western Bulldogs’ playing stocks have taken some big hits in the past fortnight, the loss of Robert Murphy (knee) followed by the serious hamstring tear sustained by fellow creative half-back Jason Johannisen. Their absence will give Brisbane hope, but there is no denying that Justin Leppistch’s side will need to produce its best performance of the season — and have Stefan Martin available — to cause a massive upset.

The Lions were extremely brave to overcome Gold Coast last weekend, the loss of a concussed Martin and horrid goal kicking not enough to stymie their efforts. Pearce Hanley produced a terrific display to suggest he was back on track after having 2015 ruined by injury. If Hanley can replicate that and recruit Tom Bell continue to be a factor, Brisbane’s midfield will be considerably more daunting to its opposition.

But what we do know with the Bulldogs is they play excellent two-way football, with their offensive slant more than made up for in 2016 by the back line. The miserly defence against Carlton last Saturday night was eerily similar to what we witnessed in the first fortnight of the year against Fremantle and St Kilda. The expected return of Easton Wood helps offset the absence of Murphy and Johannisen and provides a level or surety and class to an outfit which is now a legitimate premiership contender.

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs by 39 points

Port Adelaide v Geelong

Saturday, 5.45pm Adelaide Oval

The entire football world is waiting and watching to see what Port Adelaide dish up. Embarrassed in round two by Adelaide and humiliated by Greater Western Sydney last weekend, Ken Hinkley needs to extract something meaningful out of his playing group — and quickly — to avoid the Power’s season from going down the gurgler. Whether he is capable of doing that remains to be seen.

The Power quit against GWS and there is no more damning assessment of a football team than that. Geelong coach Chris Scott will surely have his players on red alert for a response from the Power, who predictably came out breathing fire in the first term against Essendon in round three after their drubbing by the Crows. Defensively they are inadequate and unless a better system is discovered when entering attack, key forward Charlie Dixon will continue to battle two and three defenders.

Geelong have been only fair in 2016. They struggled to overcome a committed, yet inferior, Essendon team last weekend. The Cats fumbled and made skill errors they normally don’t commit despite the influence of Patrick Dangerfield. If Dangerfield and Joel Selwood set the tone early inside the centre square, the Cats have enough weapons in attack to trouble the Power, who are missing the steadying influence of Alipate Carlile.

VERDICT: Geelong by 18 points

St Kilda v GWS

Sunday, 11.10am Etihad Stadium

Aside from their poor effort against the Western Bulldogs in round two, St Kilda have been encouraging in 2016. Indeed, they were desperately unlucky not to claim the scalp of Hawthorn in Launceston last Saturday. Likewise, the performance of Greater Western Sydney this season suggests they have improved again, overcoming the disappointment of a first-up defeat to Melbourne to be 2-2 after a month without Jeremy Cameron.

The talented young key forward returns here and his presence is significant. The Saints have had their issues with power forwards in recent times and GWS coach Leon Cameron will be keen to stretch the home team with Jeremy Cameron, Rory Lobb and Jonathon Patton. The Giants’ midfield is now deeper than it has ever been, with Swan Districts product Stephen Coniglio coming off an outstanding performance in last Sunday’s thrashing of Port Adelaide.

The Saints are moving the ball well and have a far more attacking mindset this season under Alan Richardson, but their work when they don’t have the football has also evolved. Their ability to slow up the Giants will be vital in the final result. It might be early, but there appears only one spot up for grabs in the top eight and GWS loom as genuine chances to nab it. That makes winning this match non-negotiable.

VERDICT: GWS by 22 points

Fremantle v Carlton

Sunday, 2.15pm Domain Stadium

Nobody in their right mind would have envisaged Fremantle, last season’s minor premiers, starting the season 0-4. It is unfathomable. Ridiculous. Staggering. But what has been impressive during the lean patch, especially in the past fortnight, has been the message. The theme emanating from inside the four walls at the Dockers has been calmness, anything but a sense of panic. It is rare for such highly regarded sides to be as poised as Fremantle have been during a barren run.

Carlton coach Brendon Bolton also oversees a winless outfit and like Lyon, has been very reassuring when he has spoken to the media during the week and in his post-match press conferences. He would have expected a rocky start to his coaching career given the age profile and talent at his disposal and known a long way out that this assignment in particular was always going to be brutally difficult. Despite their own confidence issues, Fremantle haven’t been embarrassed against either West Coast or North Melbourne and look perfectly placed to open their account.

The Dockers have coughed up a fistful of goals in 2016, something we rarely see from Lyon-coached sides, but Carlton don’t strike fear into opposition defences. At the other end of the ground, Matthew Pavlich, Michael Walters, Hayden Ballantyne and Matt Taberner get a golden opportunity to fill up their boots, even taking into account the impressive form of Blues youngsters Jacob Weitering and Lachie Plowman.

VERDICT: Fremantle by 46 points

Melbourne v Richmond

Sunday, 5.10pm MCG

If seeing is believing, Melbourne are entitled to think they are every chance of claiming another big-name Victorian rival following their round-four effort against Collingwood. The Demons are finally moving forward, with the form of Jack Watts perhaps the best indicator of that. The former No.1 draft choice sliced apart the Magpies in arguably the best showing of his career.

Whereas there is light at the end of the tunnel for Melbourne, gloom surrounds Richmond. Admittedly, they headed west last week with a side that on paper looked to be out of its depth against West Coast. But the manner in which they performed in the first half was alarming. Captain Trent Cotchin is working overtime and full-back Alex Rance is doing his best, but the sharing of the load is non-existent.

Melbourne are averaging four more goals a game this season than 2015 and are likely to ask much of the shaky Richmond back line here, with Jeff Garlett likely to be available after missing the past fortnight with an ankle injury. Sliding him in attack alongside Watts, Jesse Hogan and Cam Pedersen is significant, as is the return from suspension of Bernie Vince to join a midfield being led wonderfully by Jack Viney.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 20 points

Collingwood v Essendon

Monday, 1.20pm MCG

Collingwood are testing the faith of football tipsters right around the country. Really poor in round three against St Kilda, they were equally disappointing in the initial 40 minutes against Melbourne last weekend, leading to a 35-point defeat. The twin losses has seen the scrutiny on Nathan Buckley intensify and it will only increase further should the Magpies fail to take care of a plucky Essendon.

What we have seen in the opening month from the Bombers is effort. John Worsfold is extracting everything out of his unlikely line-up, with the experience and class of David Zaharakis being superbly complemented by young gun Zach Merrett. Kicking goals remains an issue, but Essendon just might find that task a little easier than previous weeks given how disjointed the Magpies’ back half is.

This is a match Collingwood would have expected to win at the start of the year and given the talent at Buckley’s disposal, that goal should remain the same. There will be some very interesting calls made at selection by the Magpies, but if they have designs on playing any meaningful part in the 2016 campaign, they just need to find a way to snare the four points. I think they can — just.

VERDICT: Collingwood by 3 points

ANZAC Day Medal: Scott Pendlebury

Digby Beacham is Deputy Sports Editor of The West Australian

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