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Digby’s AFL Round 20 Preview

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

Richmond v Collingwood

Friday, MCG 5.50pm

Friday night football always attracts a lot of focus and that could spell trouble for Richmond and their besieged coach Damien Hardwick. The Tigers have managed just eight goals in the past fortnight, including three in last Saturday’s 88-point drubbing at the hands of Greater Western Sydney. That result brought fresh pressure on Hardwick and he knows, along with everyone in the industry, a similar performance won’t be good for his long-term coaching aspirations.

He was let down by his senior players, save for Alex Rance, against GWS and captain Trent Cotchin is at the head of the queue. If Cotchin wants to set the right example, his teammates will follow. Fresh off an excellent win against West Coast, Collingwood will be ready. Captain Scott Pendlebury and his midfield cohorts Adam Treloar, Jack Crisp, Taylor Adams and Steele Sidebottom will understand the importance of standing their ground early. No Darcy Moore shapes as a blow, but the Magpies’ overall form is solid enough.

VERDICT: Collingwood by 21 points.

1st goal scorer: Jack Riewoldt.

Sydney v Port Adelaide

Saturday, SCG 11.45am

Sydney flexed their muscles against a pathetic Fremantle last Sunday in a performance worthy of a top-two side. There cannot be any slip-ups from here on in if they are to snare a one-two finish and secure two home finals in September. Port Adelaide will ask much of the Swans despite their own issues, but a stroll in the Gabba night air last weekend is in stark contrast to a date with Sydney at their preferred venue.

The Power blitzed Brisbane out of the centre square thanks to Jackson Trengove and while Sydney remain without injured ruckman Kurt Tippett and Callum Sinclair, they have a handy replacement in Sam Naismith. He gives a contest at every stoppage and helps fuel a midfield that obliterated the Dockers. Port’s defence is missing several of its preferred personnel and that shapes as a real problem against Sydney, especially with Isaac Heeney bouncing back with a bag against the Dockers.

VERDICT: Sydney by 34 points.

1st goal scorer: Lance Franklin

Melbourne v Hawthorn

Saturday, MCG 12.10pm

Melbourne’s new-found defensive resilience has been a feature of their past fortnight, but it will face the ultimate test in this clash with Hawthorn. The Hawks are hoping to regain Cyril Rioli and Paul Puopolo to work alongside Luke Breust, Jack Gunston and James Sicily. It is very rare for that five, who all complement each other so well, to all be subdued over two hours, particularly at the MCG.

The Demons found a way to get over Gold Coast last Sunday, thanks in no small part to Jack Watts. His influence will again be important to the Demons, as will in-form ruckman Max Gawn. But the Hawks have experience and class on every line and have proven an obstacle for Melbourne, who haven’t beaten them in more than 10 years. Melbourne need to be bold, but also conscious of not being hurt the other way. No side is capable of slicing its opposition better than the Hawks.

VERDICT: Hawthorn by 40 points.

1st goal scorer: Jack Gunston

Gold Coast v GWS

Saturday, Metricon Stadium 2.35pm

For the best part of the past two seasons, scoring goals hasn’t been an issue for Greater Western Sydney. However, they have strengthened up markedly in defence, as evidenced by conceding just three goals against Richmond last weekend. For a side laced with elite talent through the midfield and in attack, to be so miserly backward of centre is certain to put many of their rivals on notice, starting with Gold Coast in this match.

The Suns have been solid in the second half of the season, with Tom Lynch reaffirming he is an outstanding young key forward. He will find it harder here than he has done in recent weeks, especially if the Giants hold the whip hand through the midfield as you would expect they will. Dylan Shiel, Josh Kelly, Tom Scully, Callan Ward and Stephen Coniglio are in career-best form and front up against a Suns midfield decimated by injuries

VERDICT: GWS by 45 points.

1st goal scorer: Jeremy Cameron

Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne

Saturday, Etihad Stadium 5.25pm

There was every reason to think the Western Bulldogs were at their tipping point in relation to injuries ahead of last Friday night’s match against Geelong at Simonds Stadium. But they had the audacity to extract the Cats’ very best despite the undeniable hurdles. However, the fresh injury blows to Jack Macrae (hamstring) and Tom Liberatore (ankle) surely puts them at risk for the crucial last month of the home-and-away season.

Luke Dahlhaus was spritely against Geelong and along with Lachie Hunter, Marcus Bontempelli and Koby Stevens, needs to ensure the Bulldogs remain at their ferocious best at the coalface against the Kangaroos. Failure to do so will enable the likes of Ben Cunnington, Jack Ziebell, Daniel Wells, Andrew Swallow and Sam Gibson to prove a handful. And even in the absence of Jarrad Waite, key forwards Drew Petrie and Ben Brown, and goalsneaks Brent Harvey and Lindsay Thomas have the potential to wreak havoc.

VERDICT: North Melbourne by 20 points.

1st goal scorer: Ben Brown

Adelaide v Brisbane

Saturday, Adelaide Oval 5.40pm

If there was a mercy rule in the AFL, it wouldn’t be a total shock to see it invoked halfway through this match. Adelaide monstered Essendon at home last weekend and will not waste the opportunity to do a number on Brisbane, who were shredded by Port Adelaide at the Gabba last round. The Lions’ defensive frailties and substandard work rate must improve sharply. Failure to do so could have massive ramifications.

Adelaide are the highest-scoring side in the competition and with Eddie Betts and Charlie Cameron combining for nine goals against the Bombers, the writing is on the wall in this match for a total of cricket score proportions. Sam Jacobs (ankle) and Scott Thompson (soreness) are out, therefore robbing Adelaide of their midfield and stoppage dominance. But the lack of presence shown on-field by Brisbane’s leaders guarantees the visitors will be fodder.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 81 points.

1st goal scorer: Josh Jenkins

Carlton v St Kilda

Sunday, MCG 11.10am

Carlton would dearly love to send off the retiring Andrew Walker with a victory, but will be under no illusions about the enormity of their task. The Blues have been terrific in extending West Coast, Sydney and Hawthorn in the past three weeks, but St Kilda have shown they are very much heading in the right direction also. Had they beaten North Melbourne last weekend, they may have played finals. The Saints may still do that, but will need to win here and hope for some luck in the last month of the season.

Jack Steven was terrific against Carlton when St Kilda won the meeting between the two sides earlier this year and Brendon Bolton will be looking at either Sam Kerridge or Ed Curnow to shut him down. Likewise, Saints coach Alan Richardson will be intent on curtailing the grunt midfield of Patrick Cripps and the rebound and direction off half-back that Kade Simpson delivers. St Kilda are better inside Etihad Stadium than at the MCG, but they have won at the home of football this season.

VERDICT: St Kilda by 11 points.

1st goal scorer: Tim Membrey

Geelong v Essendon

Sunday, Etihad Stadium 1.20pm

Geelong’s form against the better sides this season is without peer. Their efforts opposed to clubs set to fill the role of spectators in September however, is not so impressive. That obscure record after 18 matches is unlikely to be an issue in this game. Essendon are fatigued and limping to the line, Geelong well aware that they need to keep chalking up victories to guarantee themselves a top-four spot.

Patrick Dangerfield was magnificent in last Friday night’s win over the Western Bulldogs and if he is anywhere near that level again, and the contributions of Joel Selwood, Cam Guthrie, Mitch Duncan and Steven Motlop are sound, the Cats could generate massive goal-scoring opportunities for the likes of Tom Hawkins and Rhys Stanley. Essendon continue to be well served by Zach Merrett and Joe Daniher, but the youngsters can’t be expected to do it all.

VERDICT: Geelong by 70 points.

1st goal scorer: Zac Smith

Fremantle v West Coast

Sunday, Domain Stadium 2.40pm

Round 20, 2015. It was the western derby to end all western derbies. Fremantle were top and West Coast second. Some felt it could have been the precursor to an historic Dockers-Eagles grand final. How times have changed. The Eagles are set to play finals, although it is debatable if they will last longer than one week, while the Dockers are a shambolic outfit coming off their worst performance of the season.

The return of Nic Naitanui and Aaron Sandilands adds some much-needed interest to this encounter, with the football world again on a watching brief to see if the Eagles have it in them to make a stand and produce a level of football we saw regularly 12 months ago. Defensively and in attack, West Coast are sound, but their midfield still has holes in it. Naitanui may address that. As for Fremantle, they continue to make horrible skill errors, while being devoid of confidence.

VERDICT: West Coast by 22 points.

1st goal scorer: Josh Kennedy

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