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Digby’s AFL Preview – Round 7

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

Friday, 5th May

St Kilda v GWS, Etihad Stadium 5.50pm

St Kilda set themselves for a powerhouse display against Hawthorn in Tasmania last weekend and duly delivered. Six days later, the challenge for Alan Richardson’s side is even bigger — Greater Western Sydney at Etihad Stadium under the Friday night lights. Having started 0-2, the Saints know a win will lift them to 4-3, content in the knowledge they will have already played GWS, Geelong, West Coast in Perth, Melbourne and the Hawks in Launceston.

And their task was made easier this week with the suspension handed down to Toby Greene and the hamstring injury sustained by reliable defender Nick Haynes, ruling him out for at least 10 weeks. How they handle the collective brilliance of the Giants will be crucial to the final outcome.

Key forwards Jeremy Cameron and Jonathon Patton kicked seven goals between them in the narrow win over the Western Bulldogs and will ask plenty of Nathan Brown and Jake Carlisle. The GWS midfield was solid enough in Canberra, but doesn’t bat as deep as coach Leon Cameron would like due to injuries. That said, they have the ability to move the football swiftly and with precision. If you are to be super critical of GWS, it is they seem to get by more on brilliance than structure. But elite talent does carry a side a long way.

VERDICT: GWS by 8 points.

Saturday, 6th May

North Melbourne v Adelaide, Blundstone Arena 11.45am

Good luck Brad Scott, good luck North Melbourne defenders and good on all of you in Hobart who have tickets to this game. The Adelaide juggernaut hits town and is rolling with ridiculous momentum at present. On what we have seen already this year, far better sides than the Kangaroos have tried — and failed — to halt it.

The Crows are the greatest show on turf at present and even though North are familiar with the surrounds of Blundstone Arena, they simply don’t have the cattle or leg speed to harness Don Pyke’s side. Rory Sloane continues to lead a midfield with aplomb, so much so that if the Brownlow Medal count was held now, there’s every chance he would be well ahead.

The Kangaroos scraped past Gold Coast last Saturday night, with Ben Brown cashing in on the absence of Steven May and Rory Thompson to kick six goals. The Crows are solid all over the ground and their defence is underrated. Rory Laird and Brodie Smith are creative streaming from the back line and we all know about Adelaide’s potency forward of centre.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 35 points.

Collingwood v Carlton, MCG 12.10pm

Have Collingwood turned the corner? If anyone knows the correct answer to that question, they are entitled to be on very good terms with themselves. The Magpies, operating off a five-day break and with the weight of the football world on their shoulders, played bold, efficient and accountable football to inflict Geelong’s first defeat of the season last Sunday.

A repeat performance will be enough for Nathan Buckley to enjoy a third victory this season. And that occurs regardless of what Carlton bring to the table. The Blues were deservedly lauded for their win over Sydney last weekend, but they just don’t have the experience and talent that Collingwood will wheel out.

That said, the Blues are a very organised side building from the ground up, and in time will have a spine that should bring a smile to the face of all Carlton supporters. So too would a win here against their traditional rivals. But if the likes of Daniel Wells, Scott Pendlebury, Taylor Adams, Levi Greenwood, Steele Sidebottom and perhaps Jordan De Goey bring their A-games, Collingwood should generate enough scoring opportunities to win.

VERDICT: Collingwood by 20 points.

Port Adelaide v West Coast, Adelaide Oval 2.35pm

The top-four credibility of both sides goes on the line here as West Coast chase a third successive win over Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval. For all their travel troubles at the MCG, the Eagles perform extremely well at this venue and will ask a lot of questions of the Power.

But what we have seen for the most past in 2017 is that the Power have the answers. They start games well and have remained in the contest for sustained periods this season, with their only two defeats to Adelaide and Greater Western Sydney nothing to be ashamed of. The expected return of captain Travis Boak from a slight hamstring strain is a huge boost for Port, who are bursting at the seams with fit bodies.

The Eagles don’t have that same luxury and will be desperately hoping Nathan Vardy can overcome his elbow injury to take his place in the line-up alongside Jonathan Giles to try and combat Paddy Ryder. If the athletic big man can exert an influence, then the Power midfield will feed a forward line that dined out against Brisbane last Saturday, with the return to form of Charlie Dixon an added bonus.

VERDICT: Port Adelaide by 19 points.

Gold Coast v Geelong, Metricon Stadium 5.25pm

Gold Coast corrected a lot of things against North Melbourne, one week on from their drubbing at the hands of Adelaide. And had they had access to either Steven May or Rory Thompson in the key defensive posts, there is every chance they might have pulled off an upset.

But they did not and now face a daunting assignment against Geelong at home to try and avoid going 2-5. The fact the Cats have been stewing all week after their disappointing effort opposed to Collingwood doesn’t aid the Suns’ hopes. Gary Ablett gathered 45 possessions against the Kangaroos, but he lacked an extensive support cast. The same criticism has been levelled at the teammates of Joel Selwood and Patrick Dangerfield, but there is no disputing Geelong do bat deeper in the midfield than Gold Coast.

Because of that, the likes of Tom Hawkins, Harry Taylor, Daniel Menzel, Nakia Cockatoo and Steven Motlop are likely to be presented with ample opportunities against a Suns back line that is gallant, but still undermanned. The Cats have had their issues on the Glitter Strip previously, but it would be a shock if that was the case here.

VERDICT: Geelong by 28 points.

Western Bulldogs v Richmond, Etihad Stadium 5.25pm

The Western Bulldogs are getting there. For those wondering where “there” is, it is the standard which carried them to the top of the AFL mountain in 2016. The premiers aren’t there yet, but there are contributing factors. Consider this. The Bulldogs ventured to Canberra last weekend without Matthew Boyd, Dale Morris, Travis Cloke, Stewart Crameri, Tory Dickson, Jordan Roughead and Mitch Wallis and lost to Greater Western Sydney by less than a kick after booting 9.19.

While they underlined their credentials, one could argue that less than 48 hours later, Richmond’s authenticity was called into question with a flogging from the Crows in Adelaide. Having started well, the Tigers coughed up 16 goals in the final three terms while kicking only four themselves. It was brutal and came at a cost, with Toby Nankervis suspended for striking David Mackay.

Bulldogs coach Luke Beveridge doesn’t place a great emphasis on ruckmen, but he will be backing his midfield of Marcus Bontempelli, Luke Dahlhaus, Lachie Hunter, Lin Jong, Jacke Macrae and Caleb Daniel to win the stoppages opposed to the Tigers. Should that occur, the Bulldogs will be able to flex their muscles.

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs by 27 points.

Sunday, 7th May

Sydney v Brisbane, SCG 11.10am

Is this the week? The week where Sydney flick the switch and start what disbelieving Swans fans believe will be the start of a resurgence. For John Longmire and his coaching staff and all people inside the football department, one would hope so. Clearly, a 0-6 start is unacceptable for the Swans, even taking into account their injuries.

As for Brisbane, their opponents this week, they regressed in round six. The Lions were pitiful around the stoppages against Port Adelaide, especially early, and were opened up defensively time and time again. They head to the SCG without captain Dayne Beams (quad) and his absence hurts a side lacking quality and experienced personnel.

VERDICT: Sydney by 40 points.

Melbourne v Hawthorn, MCG 1.20pm

If Hawthorn players were committed to the cause and engaged in the week-to-week physical and mental battle of the AFL, we would have seen a response in the third quarter against St Kilda last Saturday. Coach Alastair Clarkson peeled paint off the walls of the Hawks’ Tasmanian change rooms in a withering half-time speech. The response? An eight goal to one third term in favour of the Saints.

Not for the first time this season, Hawthorn were made to look like witches hat during a quarter of football that was so far removed from the vaunted Hawks line-ups of years gone by, it wasn’t funny. The availability of Cyril Rioli (hip) and Grant Birchall (jaw) for this clash is a decided boost, but one wonders how much scarring Clarkson’s men are carrying.

The Demons overcome a shoddy first half to win running away from Essendon at Etihad Stadium and could well be boosted by the availability of Jesse Hogan in attack. His presence will straighten up Melbourne, who were well served by the undersized, but mobile Cam Pedersen in the ruck against the Bombers. If the Demons hold their ground early and take better care of the ball, they have the wheels to expose the Hawks on the spacious surrounds of the MCG.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 31 points.

Fremantle v Essendon, Domain Stadium 2.40pm

Essendon were unable to back up from Anzac Day and get the job done opposed to Melbourne last Sunday, but Bombers fans are entitled to wonder what might have been had Joe Daniher taken his first-half opportunities. Likewise, Fremantle supporters had every reason to be miffed why their team was so ordinary in the first 30 minutes against West Coast when everyone expected a fierce Eagles backlash.

That aside, this match represents an opportunity for one of these teams to advance their record to 4-3 and be inside, or on the fringes of the top eight. And if it is not the Dockers by the end of the game, then that would be a surprise. Ross Lyon’s side looks to hold the necessary weapons through the midfield, with Nat Fyfe, David Mundy, Lachie Neale, Bradley Hill, Connor Blakely and co. working at the feet of Aaron Sandilands.

The Dockers giant will more than likely come up against Matthew Leuenberger for prolonged periods, but Fremantle should still be very strong around the stoppages. It is then incumbent upon those midfielders to give their forwards enough quality looks, while mindful that Essendon defender Michael Hurley is in excellent nick. A shootout would be a surprise, but so too would a Bombers victory.

VERDICT: Fremantle by 16 points.

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