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Digby’s AFL Preview: Round 5

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

THURSDAY

Adelaide v Geelong, Adelaide Oval, 5.40pm

With a slither of good fortune up on the Gold Coast last weekend, Adelaide enter this Thursday night showdown to kick off Gather Round with a 4-0 record and an even shorter quote than they currently are.

But an incorrect decision (yes, the league actually admitted its umpires made a mistake) proved costly and the Crows had to lick their wounds and get back to home base knowing this clash was on the horizon. The market may yet swing a little to Geelong, especially if Izak Rankine (calf) is a late withdrawal.

With questions surrounding how fit Tom Stewart (knee) is, Geelong’s loss of Jack Henry is telling. It leaves their defence short-handed against a potent three-pronged attack of Riley Thilthorpe, Darcy Fogarty and Taylor Walker, although no side does set up better behind the ball than Chris Scott’s men.

VERDICT: Adelaide to win

Same Game Multi: Matt Crouch and Jordan Dawson to have 25+ disposals and Ben Keays to kick 1+ goal @$2.25*

FRIDAY

Collingwood v Sydney, Adelaide Oval, 5.40pm

This match tightened up big time when Dan Houston’s suspension was compounded by injuries to impactful pair Jordan De Goey (ankle) and Lachie Schultz (hamstring).

All three played key roles in the win over Carlton last round and their absence will be felt, regardless of how their replacements fare. Sydney have their own personnel issues, but will feel better about themselves and their prospects on the back of successive wins and a good recent record against the Magpies.

Nick Daicos is everything to Collingwood. His third-quarter burst set the Magpies on their way against Carlton and it would be a massive shock if James Jordon doesn’t go to him at some stage.

VERDICT: Collingwood to win

Same Game Multi: Either team to win by 24 points or less and under 179.5 points @ $2.33*

SATURDAY

North Melbourne v Gold Coast, Barossa Park, 10.35am

Gold Coast are hot. North Melbourne are not. The Suns have a system in place and a hunger that is clear for all to see. The Kangaroos are incredibly poor without the ball and seemingly not that interested in digging in.

The above summation makes this a wonderful opportunity for Gold Coast to cash in on the conditions they relish (fine weather and a fast deck) and expose Alastair Clarkson’s Kangaroos, who have regressed the past fortnight after what many predicted was a breakthrough victory over Melbourne.

The Suns have quality midfield and the pop they now enjoy off half-back thanks to the additions of John Noble and Daniel Rioli is undeniable.

VERDICT: Gold Coast by 16 points or more

Same Game Multi: Gold Coast to win, John Noble to have 20+ disposals and Caleb Daniel to have 25+ disposals @ $2.25*

Carlton v West Coast, Adelaide Oval, 11.20am

It’s difficult confidently tipping into a side that has made a 0-4 start to the season. However, if Carlton are anywhere near the level they have produced for stages in the opening month of a faltering campaign, they should be winning.

Their opponents, West Coast, are staring down the barrel of yet another miserable season and the most recent effort against GWS was listless and an embarrassment, with the decision to drop Harry Edwards backfiring. Senior players, notably Tim Kelly, Liam Duggan and Oscar Allen, were extremely poor when it mattered most. What hope the kids of being guided through the tough times with the leaders leading?

The Blues have been strengthened significantly at selection and if Harry McKay has a taste early, a long afternoon is in store for the Eagles.

VERDICT: Carlton by 25 points or more

Same Game Multi: Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay to each kick 3+ goals @ $3.35*

Western Bulldogs v Brisbane, Norwood, 2.15pm

The good news for Western Bulldogs fans is Marcus Bontempelli is nearing a return from injury. The bad news is he will not be  running around in South Australia for this daunting assignment against the reigning premiers.

Brisbane are yet to piece it together for a full four quarters yet boast a 4-0 win/loss record. What we have seen in all four of their games is an ability to change gears and quickly. The Bulldogs need to be better at applying the clamps to the Lions than they were in the second term opposed to Fremantle.

The Bulldogs also need to hold their ground midfield, which is not an easy thing to do without the likes of Bontempelli and Adam Treloar. That said, if you have Sam Darcy in your team you are always in the contest.

VERDICT: Brisbane to win

Same Game Multi: Brisbane to win, Josh Dunkley to have 25+ possessions and Charlie Cameron to kick 1+ goals @ $2.63*

Melbourne v Essendon, Adelaide Oval, 5.35pm

Essendon relieved the pressure on Brad Scott with a win over Port Adelaide the week prior to their early bye. It wasn’t pretty. It wasn’t convincing. But boy it was important.

Can they follow up here? Melbourne remain impotent in attack, an area of the ground that has plagued Simon Goodwin for nearly all of his tenure. Essendon present as a team that is gettable defensively, but it is hard to confidently predict the Demons kicking a big total considering they have managed only 34 goals on the year.

Christian Petracca showed his hurt at the end of last Friday night’s loss to Geelong. He obviously cares and is invested despite all the uncertainty and commentary at the back end of 2024.

VERDICT: Essendon to win

Same Game Multi: Either team to win by 24 points or less and Kysiah Pickett to kick 2+ goals @ $4.40*

SUNDAY

Richmond v Fremantle, Barossa Park, 10.35am

Fremantle fans were justifiably proud last Sunday evening after their side overcame the loss in game of Luke Jackson, Nathan O’Driscoll and Corey Wagner to defeat the Western Bulldogs.

That trio will be sidelined for this clash with Richmond, but the inclusion of both Sean Darcy and Hayden Young helps soften the blow. If Fremantle are to make a run at this year’s top four and beyond, it will be with Darcy and Young making telling contributions.

The Tigers added a level of respectability to the scoreboard late against Brisbane without ever really threatening. They are young and missing both experienced and fresh talent. They are ripe for the picking.

VERDICT: Fremantle to win by 25 points or more

Same Game Multi: Shai Bolton to kick 2+ goals and Josh Treacy to kick 3+ goals @ $3.80*

St Kilda v GWS, Norwood, 1.20pm

Football audits eagerly await every emerging side. St Kilda are one such side and as such, this is their first genuine audit for 2025. There will be others this season, but for Ross Lyon’s men, this is the one they must drill down on.

GWS are a quality outfit that do so much right. If you aren’t prepared to run hard both ways against the Giants, you will pay a high price. The Saints will be up for the challenge. They headed to Adelaide Oval last weekend and stared down Port Adelaide, both early and late.

St Kilda’s willingness to move the ball quickly and get the ball into the hands of elite users Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera and Jack Sinclair is something GWS will be well aware of.

VERDICT: GWS to win

Same Game Multi: Either team by 24 points or less and game total over 157.5 points @ $2.90*

Port Adelaide v Hawthorn, Adelaide Oval, 5.20pm

This match was always going to feature in Gather Round after the dramatic events post-siren of last year’s semi-final. Port Adelaide coach Ken Hinkley has done his best to downplay the significance of the interaction between himself and the Hawks players. You just know that Sam Mitchell will use it as motivation.

The Hawks didn’t have Will Day that evening and will again be without him for this match (and many more in the future) because of a navicular injury. His loss will be felt. Day is averaging 23 possessions and more than one goal a game — quality numbers.

Port look like a team on the brink, a team that has done its best to lay it on the line time and time again without achieving the ultimate reward. Such a scenario can drain players, emotionally and mentally.

VERDICT: Hawthorn to win

Same Game Multi: Hawthorn 1-39 points and Jai Newcombe to have 25+ disposals @ $2.90*

*Odds correct at the time of publication.

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