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Digby’s AFL Preview – Round 1

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

Thursday, 23 March

Carlton v Richmond, MCG, 4.20pm

If Carlton’s plight in 2017 is as bleak as most think, Richmond, to pinch a cricketing term, have been delivered a 130km/h half-volley a foot outside off stump that has done nothing through the air or off the wicket to start their campaign.

The Tigers aren’t likely to contend for a finals spot, but their midfield has been boosted by the addition of former Gold Coast teammates Dion Prestia and Josh Caddy, and a slimmed down Toby Nankervis, who impressed in the ruck during the pre-season.

Carlton again appear as if they will rely on too few to do much of the heavy lifting, while their inability to kick big totals shapes as another area of of concern. Coach Brendon Bolton would love Levi Casboult to make an early impression, but the spectre of Alex Rance looms large.

VERDICT: Richmond by 29 points.

FRIDAY, 24 March

Collingwood v Western Bulldogs, MCG, 4.50pm

In an ideal world, Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley would have both Daniel Wells and Jordan De Goey in his line-up for the showdown with the reigning premiers. That is not the case. One is not fit and the other likes a fight.

The inability of Wells and De Goey to prepare themselves like elite AFL athletes puts further pressure on coach and club, a less than ideal scenario given the Bulldogs will be looking to make a statement early in their premiership defence.

The loss of Jordan Roughead (hamstring surgery) is offset somewhat by the return of captain Bob Murphy and Stewart Crameri, while Travis Cloke will be desperate to shine opposed to his former club. The Bulldogs should hit the ground running.

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs by 27 points.

SATURDAY, 25 March

St Kilda v Melbourne, Etihad Stadium, 1.35pm

Unless you have only recently touched down on Planet Earth, you are well aware of St Kilda’s hold over Melbourne and, perhaps more alarmingly, the Demons’ woeful record at Etihad Stadium.

When you combine the two to start a season, rookie Melbourne coach Simon Goodwin would have every right to be a little wary. But that is not in his DNA. He is a straight shooter with high expectations and will enter this encounter believing a win is attainable.

Colin Garland’s season-ending knee injury is a cruel blow for Melbourne, who were already going to be stretched to the limit curtailing St Kilda’s tall forwards Nick Riewoldt, Josh Bruce, Tim Membrey and Paddy McCartin. Even in the absence of Leigh Montagna, the Saints’ firepower might prove too much.

VERDICT: St Kilda by 18 points.

Sydney v Port Adelaide, SCG, 1.35pm

At least seven players from Sydney’s grand final side will be missing for this round-one encounter. It is a fair chunk and opens the door ever so slightly for Port Adelaide, who need to start the year with intent to instil confidence in the players and get president David Koch off coach Ken Hinkey’s back.

But the Power are going to have to elevate their game on what we saw in the JLT Community Series. Paddy Ryder has had a chance to iron out the kinks after a year off following his doping ban and might just be the wild-card that Port need to enter the finals discussion.

However, the Swans still have Lance Franklin and the home-ground advantage that the SCG provides. Even taking into account the inclement weather, Sydney look to hold the whip hand.

VERDICT: Sydney by 30 points.

Essendon v Hawthorn, MCG, 4.25pm

The eyes of the football world will take more than a passing interest in this tussle. And not all of the focus will be on Essendon and their swag of returning players in coach John Worsfold’s second year at the helm.

Rather, the availability and leadership of Jarryd Roughead, who is one of the game’s great feelgood stories, and the 2017 prospects of the reloading Hawks, who have been tipped to slide minus Sam Mitchell and Jordan Lewis.

With that pair missing and Luke Hodge suspended for not attending training, there is no denying the Bombers are presented with a real opportunity. But Hawthorn have been around the block a few times and still have a forward line capable of making an opponent shudder.

VERDICT: Hawthorn by 13 points.

Gold Coast v Brisbane, Metricon Stadium, 5.05pm

If the likes of Damien Hardwick and Ken Hinkley are in the gun, then Rodney Eade is looking over his shoulder. Two wretched seasons on the injury front haven’t helped Eade’s cause — nor will a third straight barren return in the final year of his existing contract.

Conversely, Brisbane’s mature-age rookie coach Chris Fagan has a clean slate from which to start and in a short space of time, the Lions already look like a more harmonious and organised outfit from the one that narrowly dodged the wooden spoon in 2016.

Just how Fagan limits the influence of Tom Lynch, Peter Wright and Gary Ablett however will have a large bearing on the outcome. Wright and Lynch destroyed Brisbane in the second Q-Clash last season and Ablett has a point to prove.

VERDICT: Gold Coast by 38 points.

SUNDAY, 26 March

North Melbourne v West Coast, Etihad Stadium, 10.10am

On far too many occasions last year West Coast and road games went together about as well as beer and ice cream. Tipped to challenge for a top-four berth in 2017, the Eagles have a perfect opportunity to lay down a marker.

Several of North’s premier players have had disjointed preparations and to think that their midfield is about to head into battle against a deep and experienced Eagles on-ball department, boosted by Sam Mitchell’s arrival, without the suspended Ben Cunnington is alarming.

The Eagles moved the ball swiftly throughout the pre-season and again look like they will be hard to score against. If Eric Mackenzie can recapture confidence and his best form, Adam Simpson’s men become even more formidable.

VERDICT: West Coast by 33 points.

Adelaide v GWS, Adelaide Oval, 12.20pm

In a round where many of the winners appear to stand out, working out the victors of this game takes some doing. What we do know for sure is the successful side will shorten in the premiership market.

Adelaide’s midfield took some hits throughout the pre-season and doubt still surrounds Taylor Walker (hamstring). But the Giants are also launching their campaign minus several key players, notably gun WA midfielder Stephen Coniglio (ankle) and prized recruit Brett Deledio (Achilles/calf).

The Crows boast an excellent record against GWS, but Leon Cameron’s side is to be feared and the no-nonsense, physical approach the Giants adopt in and around the stoppages might just expose the Crows’ underdone midfield.

VERDICT: GWS by 20 points.

Fremantle v Geelong, Domain Stadium, 4.40pm

Ross Lyon would never admit it publicly, but if there was one top-eight side from last year he could have played in front of the Dockers faithful in round one, Geelong would have been at the top of the wish list.

The Cats and coach Chris Scott have had a devil of a time breaking down the Dockers in the Lyon era and though last year’s preliminary finalists hit town in good health against a Fremantle side filtering in several new faces, a testing battle awaits.

Nat Fyfe’s return is massive for Fremantle, while the fitness and leadership of Aaron Sandilands and Michael Johnson cannot be dismissed. As for the Cats, they have genuine star quality and though they can be a little hit and miss, they look more settled at this stage.

VERDICT: Geelong by 9 points.

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