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Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 17

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

THURSDAY

St Kilda v West Coast, Gabba, 5.10pm

It is difficult to say a finals-bound side has nothing to lose entering the last fortnight of a home-and-away campaign, but that is the scenario facing West Coast at the Gabba tonight.

Beset by injuries to key personnel, in particular premier midfielders Luke Shuey, Elliot Yeo, Jack Redden and Dom Sheed, the Eagles are facing a monumental tussle to break anywhere near even against a Saints line-up that is relatively healthy and boasts an on-ball division in solid nick.

West Coast have the arsenal forward of centre to trouble the Saints’ defence, but supply is the issue.

VERDICT: St Kilda by 10 points

FRIDAY

Geelong v Richmond, Metricon Stadium, 5.50pm

If Richmond were given preferred conditions to suit their chaos brand of football, tonight’s offering on the Glitter Strip would be perfect. The wet weather that is around will delight Damien Hardwick, but by no means does it detract from Geelong’s prospects.

The Cats are highly skilled and extremely efficient in slippery conditions also, with the big-bodied presence and chest-marking capabilities of Tom Hawkins a perfect example. Hawkins has had a wonderful season and will no doubt have been spoken about at length in the Tigers’ pre-match planning.

The stakes were raised from Richmond’s perspective for this encounter after West Coast’s win last night. It’s hard to see how they finish top four with a defeat. Geelong would love to see that occur, especially after losing last year’s preliminary final to the Tigers despite being in control at half-time.

VERDICT: Geelong by 7 points

SATURDAY

North Melbourne v Fremantle, Metricon Stadium, 12.10pm

Fremantle should build on their highly encouraging first season under coach Justin Longmuir with another victory against North Melbourne. It is hard to come to any other conclusion.

The Dockers followed up their brave display against Richmond with a fighting win over Melbourne in Cairns. They are superior formlines to what the weary Kangaroos can boast with the finish line in sight.

Michael Walters illustrated his undeniable class in difficult conditions against the Demons and if he can stay focused on the task at hand, Fremantle’s fortunes improve dramatically.

VERDICT: Fremantle by 20 points

Port Adelaide v Essendon, Adelaide Oval, 3.05pm

Essendon clocked off against Geelong last weekend and copped their right whack. There will be a response from John Worsfold’s men, the level of it though remains unknown.

Port Adelaide were never really troubled last weekend against North Melbourne, turning in a complete performance. The even nature of the Power’s showings for the majority of 2020 has been pleasing and is likely to carry them to a top-two finish and two home finals at Adelaide Oval.

Essendon’s lack of pressure on the ball carrier was exposed against the Cats, leaving their undermanned defence badly exposed. It is an area that needs to be addressed to avoid another spanking.

VERDICT: Port Adelaide by 25 points

GWS v Melbourne, Gabba, 5.40pm

Pop quiz. Question: Who are the two most disappointing teams in 2020? Answer: Greater Western Sydney and Melbourne.

Poor coaching, lack of structure, questionable work ethic and an inability to apply sufficient scoreboard pressure for prolonged periods sum up the plight of both sides and leave them facing a crucial clash in order to enhance their top-eight claims.

GWS will be boosted by the return of Josh Kelly after two games out through concussion, but skipper Stephen Coniglio makes way in a massive selection statement from Leon Cameron.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 8 points

SUNDAY

Carlton v Adelaide, Metricon Stadium, 11.05am

Congratulations to Adelaide coach Matthew Nicks and his players on finding a way out of the darkness. Humbled by the Western Bulldogs last month, it seemed inevitable that they would finish the season winless.

But they had a crack in the next match, in the comforts of home surrounds, against Geelong and have since taken down Hawthorn and Greater Western Sydney. It is a credit to Nicks and all concerned.

That said, whether the streak continues here opposed to Carlton is debatable. The Blues climbed from the canvas against Sydney, reversing a trend that had seen them stop alarmingly in matches. With a sniff of finals, the Blues can prevail.

VERDICT: Carlton by 13 points

Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs, Adelaide Oval, 1.35pm

Can the Western Bulldogs repeat their deeds of 2019 with another late-season surge into the finals? Having taken down West Coast last weekend, you can mount an argument to say yes.

The Bulldogs should remain in the finals conversation, especially given the depth they boast through the midfield opposed to a wounded Hawthorn line-up. Marcus Bontempelli continues to lead the Dogs in style and his influence is more pronounced with the prolific Lachie Hunter alongside.

Hawthorn were hopeful of more from recruit Jon Patton this year, injuries again curtailing his output. His replacement Mitchell Lewis has plateaued somewhat and that is not aiding the likes of Luke Breust and his fellow small forwards.

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs by 19 points

Sydney v Brisbane, Cazaly’s Stadium, 4.10pm

Danger game. What danger game? Brisbane could well have adopted that stance after dismantling local rivals Gold Coast at the Gabba during the week. It was a powerful response to the absence of Harris Andrews and sent a warning to their premiership rivals.

Importantly, forward pair Charlie Cameron and Eric Hipwood looked to have rediscovered their very best form and were moving freely. The big win came at a cost however, with Jordan Berry sustaining a shoulder injury.

Sydney coughed up a massive lead to lose to Carlton, but will take comfort that this match is in Cairns, the scene of their recent win over Melbourne, and not at the Gabba.

VERDICT: Brisbane by 23 points

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