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Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 17

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

THURSDAY

Richmond v Sydney, MCG, 5.20pm

It is debatable if either of these two teams play finals in 2023. What isn’t debatable is the loser of this match can start planning for 2024 … if they haven’t already.

Sensing the importance of the occasion, Sydney have recalled Lance Franklin for what promises to be an emotional MCG farewell, while the Tigers appear certain to be boosted by the availability of Dustin Martin and Dion Prestia.

If we were to go off last week, it would be natural to lean towards Sydney, who outplayed Geelong yet had to settle for a draw. Richmond were belted by Brisbane at the Gabba, but we know they remain a threat at their home ground.

VERDICT: Richmond to win

FRIDAY

Western Bulldogs v Collingwood, Marvel Stadium, 5.50pm

Unlike a few other teams battling for a top-eight berth, the Western Bulldogs did what they had to in round 16, rallying to dismiss Fremantle.

They return to their preferred venue here for a clash with Collingwood, who have been boosted by the return from suspension of Jordan De Goey, but will be minus sore duo Brody Mihocek and Brayden Maynard.

The Bulldogs emerged triumphant in the contested ball stakes at key stages against Fremantle and it is an area that will again be at a premium opposed to the Magpies, who were electric for the first half in their big win over Gold Coast.

VERDICT: Collingwood to win

SATURDAY

Brisbane v West Coast, Gabba, 11.45am

Attitude, not personnel, dictates effort. That was evident last weekend when West Coast, despite boasting an eye-watering number of injuries, stretched the necks of St Kilda, themselves in the cut and thrust for a top-four berth.

So how will Adam Simpson’s charges back up from that performance? If recent history is any guide, appallingly. Their last two interstate visits have resulted in triple-figure floggings and even though Brisbane will be without Josh Dunkley and Lincoln McCarthy, they have the depth to inflict a brutal defeat on the Eagles.

VERDICT: Brisbane to win/game total 92.5 points (OVER) at half-time

GWS v Hawthorn, Giants Stadium, 2.35pm

We should never underestimate the importance of having access to your premier performers.

GWS and Hawthorn are a case in point. The Giants have been revitalised since the return from a hamstring injury of midfielder Josh Kelly. Conversely, Hawthorn are floundering in the absence of suspended skipper James Sicily.

As a result, it is little wonder why the Giants are raging favourites to win a fourth successive match and continue their push towards the unlikeliest of finals appearances.

VERDICT: GWS by 16 points or more

St Kilda v Melbourne, Marvel Stadium, 5.25pm

From premiership contenders to scrapping for a position in the top four. That is the plight of Melbourne, who continue to shoot themselves in the foot with poor finishing in front of goal.

The inability to beat GWS after recording the numbers they did is criminal and has heightened the stakes here against a St Kilda side, that while not at the level we saw earlier in the year, remains a genuine top-four aspirant.

The loss of Bayley Fritsch to a serious foot injury is concerning for the Demons, who will again be without ball magnet Clayton Oliver. Can the Saints overcome their trek west and perform at a high standard on a six-day spin around?

VERDICT: Melbourne to win

Port Adelaide v Gold Coast, Adelaide Oval, 5.40pm

If we are to believe what we heard earlier in the week, Gold Coast’s players and administration are right behind besieged coach Stuart Dew. There is no better time for the players in particular to show it.

Heavy losses to Carlton and Collingwood on the big stage in the past few weeks suggests to those on the outside that these are the same-old Suns. And that is alarming when you consider they’re about to tackle a white-hot Port Adelaide chasing a 13th successive victory.

The Power are displaying eerie similarities to what we saw with Collingwood 12 months ago. They are never beaten and feel borderline invincible in a close one.

VERDICT: Port Adelaide by 1-39 points

SUNDAY

Geelong v North Melbourne, GMHBA Stadium, 11.10am

The football industry continues to wait for the 2022 Geelong to emerge. Off what occurred at the SCG in round 16, one wonders whether it will.

The Cats were fortunate to escape with a draw. They are also probably fortunate to get North Melbourne at home this weekend because the Kangaroos are winless since round two and leaking defensively.

Geelong have the experience and talent levels to expose the better sides when on song. It’s time for them to rediscover their mojo and it would be a shock if they don’t give their percentage a nice kick along.

VERDICT: Geelong by 40 points or more

Essendon v Adelaide, Marvel Stadium, 1.20pm

Adelaide have one last box to tick to be regarded as more than nuisance value throughout September. Granted, they have to get there first, but if they can solve the puzzle of winning interstate, Matthew Nicks’ men have the ability to be extremely dangerous.

This clash with Essendon could well shape their fortunes for the rest of 2023. If they bring the same effort they did against Collingwood a fortnight ago, they can win and enter the top-four conversation.

The Bombers won’t be an easy nut to crack. They are doing a lot of things right, with Zach Merrett producing a patch of football that is right up there with some of his best work.

VERDICT: Adelaide to win

Fremantle v Carlton, Optus Stadium, 2.40pm

Fremantle supporters are entitled to be inquiring about where their pre-bye Dockers are at. The side that stormed into finals contention on the back of a four-game winning streak, highlighted by another MCG takedown of Melbourne.

What we are witnessing since the mid-season spell, albeit a brief one, is an uninspiring outfit destined to miss September. Indeed, if Carlton are able to hit town and play at a level we have seen in their past two games, Fremantle players can start planning holidays earlier than most anticipated.

The best version of the Blues is a powerful one. They find the football at the source and have genuine targets in attack. It remains to be seen if they can move the football fluently against Fremantle though.

VERDICT: Fremantle to win

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