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Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 11

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

FRIDAY

Sydney v Carlton, SCG, 5.50pm

With the exception of round one at the Optus Stadium opening this season, Sydney have yet to hit top gear. But they are still entrenched inside the top eight and will remain there in the wake of this match, even factoring in the three games they have lost already this year at their beloved SCG.

The Swans simply have too many weapons in all areas for Carlton, who were gallant against Geelong last Saturday night, but lacked the necessary polish to really put the Cats under the pump. The lack of firepower forward of centre for Brendon Bolton’s side leaves it vulnerable … and then there is the small matter of Lance Franklin, who booted 10 goals in the corresponding match last year.

VERDICT: Sydney by 48 points

SATURDAY

Western Bulldogs v Melbourne, Etihad Stadium, 11.45am

So much can change in just over 18 months. At the end of the 2016 season, the Western Bulldogs were enjoying the spoils that came with being a premiership outfit. Melbourne had endured another year that didn’t involve finals and Simon Goodwin was preparing for his first pre-season following Paul Roos’ three-year reign.

Fast-forward to the halfway mark of 2018 and the Bulldogs are unrecognisable to the team that won the flag, while Melbourne are producing a brand of football that is ruthlessly effective and has the entire football world on notice. The Demons blitzed Adelaide early in Alice Springs and didn’t take their foot off their throats for the entire match, with the 37 disposals and three goals returned by Angus Brayshaw an undeniable highlight.

The Bulldogs kicked five goals in the first term against Collingwood last week, but managed just three more for the match and none in the second half. Unless coach Luke Beveridge can delve deep into his bag of tricks, it’s impossible to see how they curb the Demons, who will look to celebrate co-captain Nathan Jones’ 250th game in style.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 39 points

Hawthorn v Port Adelaide, UTAS Stadium, 12.10pm

Port Adelaide went shopping at the end of last season to acquire proven performers in the belief their premiership window was wide open. It was a bold approach and after some shaky moments in the first half of the year, the Power seem perfectly placed to make a charge up the ladder.

Though they sit outside the top eight with a 6-3 record by virtue of playing one less match, Port should be refreshed and ready to hit Launceston at full tilt having had a bye last weekend. Conversely, Hawthorn are on the six-day back-up after a gruelling battle with West Coast at Etihad Stadium.

Tom Rockliff has started to find form after an interrupted pre-season and with Paddy Ryder building his fitness after missing a chunk of football with Achilles soreness, the Power have sufficient weapons to handle a Hawks side that is struggling to hit the scoreboard and hurting itself with skill errors.

VERDICT: Port Adelaide by 29 points

Gold Coast v Geelong, Metricon Stadium, 2.35pm

Gold Coast would have had this match pencilled in from the moment the 2018 fixtures were released. Having been forced to travel far and wide — and overseas — for the first half of the year due to the unavailability of Metricon Stadium because of Commonwealth Games commitments, they get to set foot on their home ground for the first time this season.

And adding to the occasion, former captain Gary Ablett returns to the Glitter Strip in his second coming as a Cat. The Suns did well to hold their ground early this year, but injuries and travel took their toll, leaving them 3-6 and out of the finals mix. They need to respond here and are capable of doing so, especially with Tom Lynch having overcome a knee injury.

The Cats have had their issues with Gold Coast previously and were touched up in the corresponding game last season. A key factor in that loss was the influence wielded by Ablett. The dual Brownlow medallist now forms part of a deep Geelong midfield that is powered by Patrick Dangerfield, Joel Selwood and Mitch Duncan.

VERDICT: Geelong by 20 points

Essendon v Richmond, MCG, 5.25pm

Essendon’s new-found resilience and efficiency will receive the ultimate test when they square off in the Dreamtime at the G clash against Richmond. And you sense coach John Worsfold and his reinvigorated players wouldn’t have it any other way.

The Bombers have revived their finals aspirations with stirring wins over Geelong and Greater Western Sydney and now get an opportunity to make the biggest statement of all opposed to a Tigers side that will be missing Bachar Houli (groin), Dion Prestia (calf) and almost certainly full-forward Jack Riewoldt (concussion).

The Tigers were extended by St Kilda last Saturday, but their ability to extricate themselves from a tricky predicament was impressive. They are a daunting outfit at the MCG and are entitled to enter the match confident given their recent strong record against the Bombers, who have had no answers to Dustin Martin.

VERDICT: Richmond by 20 points

West Coast v St Kilda, Optus Stadium, 6.10pm

The only positive for St Kilda in this match is they have been to Optus Stadium already once this season and therefore should not be spooked by the venue. Other than that, this shapes as a horror show.

The Saints are winless since round one and venture west to take on a rampant West Coast, who are shooting for their 10th successive win before enjoying a mid-season bye. No Jake Carlisle (suspension) leaves St Kilda without a quality tall defender opposed to an Eagles forward line boasting Jack Darling, Josh Kennedy and Jake Waterman.

The Eagles are expected to be boosted by the return from a hamstring strain of Luke Shuey and his fresh legs, coupled with the ongoing influence of Nic Naitanui and Scott Lycett in the ruck should ensure the hosts hold sway in the centre of the ground.

VERDICT: West Coast by 65 points

SUNDAY

North Melbourne v Brisbane, Etihad Stadium, 11.10am

North Melbourne’s march towards a shock finals appearance shows no signs of abating. Indeed, it should gather further momentum with another victory in this match against Brisbane. The Kangaroos displayed all the efficiency and organisation we have seen for the most part in 2018 to beat Fremantle last Sunday.

They will encounter a different beast here though in the Lions. Chris Fagan’s side has won only one match, but is a competitive unit and enjoys playing at the slick Eithad Stadium. Dayne Beams did all he could to try to lift the Lions over the line last weekend against Sydney after a difficult week.

The fleet-footed Lions will want to take the game on and score heavily. Boasting the league’s stingiest defence, Brad Scott will be eager for his Kangaroos to assert themselves at the coalface and get the game on their own terms, knowing full well Ben Brown, Jarrad Waite and Mason Wood have the capacity to expose the young Brisbane back line.

VERDICT: North Melbourne by 26 points

Collingwood v Fremantle, MCG, 1.20pm

Collingwood haven’t converted everyone and even if they win this match as expected, there will be some that are still a little dubious about whether they are destined to play finals. But a 7-4 record at the halfway mark would be an ideal launch pad for Nathan Buckley and his men.

And it would be a major shock if they aren’t in that position at the end of this game. Fremantle will arrive at the MCG without Aaron Sandilands (concussion) and Stephen Hill (quad), while Ross Lyon has shown regularly again this year of being incapable of structuring up a forward line that gives his side a realistic chance of winning games of football.

The Dockers have weapons midfield in Nat Fyfe and Lachie Neale, but the Magpies also have trump cards around the football, thanks largely to the dominance of ruckman Brodie Grundy. Their defence has greatly improved, ensuring Fremantle’s forward failings will be in the spotlight.

VERDICT: Collingwood by 43 points

Adelaide v GWS, Adelaide Oval, 2.40pm

The ever-evolving world of the AFL is highlighted in this match when the two teams meet for the first time since last year’s qualifying final. On what we saw last round, Adelaide and Greater Western Sydney are miles off finishing inside the top four at the end of the home-and-away season.

But the Crows are clearly better placed than the ailing Giants, even taking into account their 91-point loss to Melbourne. The week prior against the Western Bulldogs, they were very good and even though their campaign has been hit by injuries, have managed to win six games.

That is two more than GWS, who have lost four games on the bounce and look devoid of confidence and spirit. Their inability to engage in the contest has been alarming, as has their lack of scoreboard pressure in the absence of Toby Greene. If Adelaide make their presence felt early, it could break the back of the Giants.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 31 points

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