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David Shortte’s AFL Opening Round Preview

Posted on | Posted by David Shortte

THURSDAY

Sydney v Carlton, SCG, 4.30pm

After making the Grand Final in 2024 the Swans had a season to forget in 2025 missing the finals but it must be said when some key players returned from injury late in the season they did come home hard and showed their best footy was of a high quality. They pulled off a major recruiting coup in the off season landing Spearhead Charlie Curnow who will give their forward line an exciting new look. Key playmakers Gulden, Warner and Heeney are all fit and firing heading in to the season and loom as major players in this fixture.

The Blues will be keen to make things uncomfortable for their old team mate Charlie Curnow who will match up on gun defender Jacob Weitering. All eyes will be on Blues youngster Jagga Smith who was dynamic in the pre-season fixture last week racking up 37 disposals against the Cats. Veterans Sam Walsh and Patrick Cripps will again set the tone for the Blues through the middle of the ground.

Sydney have had a dominant record over Carlton at the SCG over the last two decades and I can see that continuing here.

VERDICT: Sydney by 27 points

Same Game Multi: Sydney to win, Errol Gulden 25 or more disposals, Jagga Smith 25 or more disposals @ $3.90*

FRIDAY

Gold Coast v Geelong, People First Stadium, 5.05pm

After winning their first ever final last year the Gold Coast Suns look like they are starting to finally put it all together under proven Coach Damien Hardwick. They have a host of talented high draft picks as well as proven performers like last year’s Brownlow Medallist Matt Rowell, Noah Anderson, Touk Miller and Ben King and they have acquired Christian Petracca and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan in the off season.

Their opponents Geelong are one of the most consistent sides in the league over a stretch. While they were beaten in last year’s Grand Final they were one of the benchmarks all season. Midfield stars Bailey Smith and Max Holmes look set for excellent seasons once again and the acquisition of James Worpel from the Hawks is a plus.

I expect this to be a hard fought contest with not much separating them. With the home ground advantage I’ll lean towards the Suns

VERDICT: Gold Coast by 7 points

Same Game Multi: Either team to win by 39 points or less, John Noble to get 20 or more disposals, Lawson Humphries to get 20 or more disposals @ $3.95*

SATURDAY

GWS v Hawthorn, Engie Stadium, 1.15pm

GWS have had setback after setback in the build up to the 2026 season with some of their most important players set for extended stints on the sidelines. Tom Green, Josh Kelly, Sam Taylor, Brent Daniels, Toby Bedford, Darcy Jones and Aaron Cadman are noticeable absentees and the Giants depth is going to be fully tested in this clash. The likes of Toby Greene, Lachie Ash, Lachie Whitfield and new acquisition Clayton Oliver are going to need big games while gun forward Jesse Hogan looms as their match winner up front.

Hawthorn look to get a golden opportunity to get their season off to a winning start with their list largely healthy outside of Will Day and Cam Mackenzie. They have plenty of firepower up front and will take heart from their win over the Giants at this venue in the Elimination Final last season.

With so many injuries to key personnel for the Giants I think the door is wide open for the Hawks to swoop here.

VERDICT: Hawthorn by 17 points

Same Game Multi: Hawthorn to win, Lachie Ash to get 25 disposals or more, Jack Gunston to kick 2 goals or more @ $2.65*

Brisbane v Western Bulldogs, GABBA, 4.35pm

After securing back to back Premierships last season Brisbane have opened the $4.50 favourites to make it 3 in a row and you would have to be a brave person to suggest that they can’t do it. They have kept the core of their playing group together and added Oscar Allen and Sam Draper in to the mix. Their young guns, the Ashcroft brothers, Jaspa Fletcher and Logan Morris are surrounded by a bevy of jets including McLuggage, Neale, Dunkley, Andrews, Zorko, Bailey and Rayner. They look very well placed for another big season

The Western Bulldogs are one of the more interesting sides in the competition. Their top end talent is fresh out of the top draw with Bontempelli, Richards, Liberatore, Dale, English, Darcy and Naughton all in the top tier of players in the league. The challenge for the Doggies is to get more out of their players on the next tier and after a season where they were leaky down back can they limit the damage of opposition attacks?

I think this will be an excellent clash but with the home ground in their favour I lean towards the reigning premiers.

VERDICT: Brisbane by 10 points.

Same Game Multi: Joel Freijah to get 15 disposals or more, Jaspa Fletcher to get 20 disposals or more and Logan Morris to kick 2 goals or more @ $3.25*

SUNDAY

St Kilda v Collingwood, MCG, 4.20pm

What a cracking game to finish off Opening Round! The Saints have gone chips in during the off season and added a host of new players to their roster including Tom De Koning, Sam Flanders, Jack Silvagni and Liam Ryan. Importantly they were able to retain one of the emerging Stars of the game in Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera who looks set for a mighty season. There will be a lot of focus on Saint Kilda given their off season recruiting and this is an opportunity for them to showcase the skill set of their fresh outfit.

The Magpies have an ageing list but they are no strangers to big crowds and big occasions and this will be one of those in front of a massive crowd at the G. The loss of Brody Mihocek and absence of Bobby Hill have the potential to rob the Pies of some potency up front and they will need big seasons from Elliott, McStay, Schultz and Membrey along with new recruit Jack Buller to manufacture winning scores. Nick and Josh Daicos loom large in this clash and St Kilda will need to minimise their influence to claim the 4 points.

I will bank on the Saint Kilda recruiting spree to pay dividends in opening round.

VERDICT: Saint Kilda by 7 points

Same Game Multi: Either team to win by 29 points or less, Josh Daicos to get 25 or more disposals, Lachie Schultz to score a goal @ $3.60*

*Odds correct at the time of publication.

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