Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Eagle Farm Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

We race at Eagle Farm on Saturday; I’d expect the track to be in the good range with mostly fine weather forecast. The youngsters get the meeting underway & it’s a difficult looking race, market leads will be all important. Early money has been for the Team Munce trained (2) COMPEL who finished third in a recent Doomben trial, no knock, nothing special, not sure she deserves to be an odds-on shot based on that though. (3) LONESOME STAR won a trial heat at Gatton leading throughout & looked impressive winning with gas in the tank, at the better odds I’ll lean her way. (5) I’LLTELLYOUANYTIME had her chance last start, suggest the winner is above average though.

Numbers: 3 – 5 – 2 – 6

Suggested Bet: LONESOME STAR TO WIN (small bet).

RACE 2

With EARN TO BURN all set to go around in a later race I’ll lean to last start winner (9) LARADO who should land an ideal run from the pole draw. He’s only had 3 starts winning easily on debut racing off speed which was also the case last time out, his only defeat came when sitting outside the leader, suggest they will elect to take a trail today & end up with the box seat run. No money around for (10) SAVAGERY VIBE first up for the new yard, that could all change this time, keep very safe. (2) CONCESSION will improve off the poor effort last start, just has to.

Numbers: 9 – 10 – 2 – 11

Suggested Bet: LARADO TO WIN (small bet).

RACE 3

Very keen on the chances of the Tony Gollan trained import (2) BRINDAVAN who improved plenty to win with gas in the tank second up. He certainly appreciated the longer trip & drop in class being put into the race on the home turn always looking to have the leader covered although not actually going past until fairly late. The further rise in distance looks ideal & he should be winning again. (4) THAT’S MOLLY was poor at the Gold Coast, maybe she ended up too close in the run, whatever the case her prior efforts suggested she was on the way back to her better form, not sacking her just yet. (7) NOBLE CONQUEROR always in the mix, dry tracks are his go.

Numbers: 2 – 4 – 7 – 9

Suggested Bet: BRINDAVAN TO WIN.

RACE 4

Not too enthused about this race where on paper the tempo looks fairly soft with nos.4 & 5 looking the main players. Thought (7) MICKEY’S MEDAL could make use of the rails gate & take up a position closer than he normally does. Aided by a good speed he ran home nicely at the Gold Coast & with a soft run 1600m shouldn’t be a concern. I’ll put those two pacemakers (4) EDITED BY & (5) ZOOLOGY in as the dangers, they will be hard to run down if left alone out front.

Numbers: 7 – 4 – 5 – 8

Suggested Bet: MICKEY’S MEDAL TO WIN (small bet).

RACE 5

Looking forward to this race where we see the return of (2) SUNRAYS who is a top-class filly with a terrific strike rate. 1000m does concern me though as she’s won up to 1500m & could find a few of these a little bit too nippy. (3) EARN TO BURN is the one I’m keen on, he returned to racing a gelding at the Sunshine Coast & couldn’t have been any more impressive bolting clear of his rivals in the straight with jockey Ryan Maloney easing up late. The official 4.6 length margin could have easily been 5. Drop in grade for (1) BLITZBURG could see him improve, he needs to though.

Numbers: 3 – 2 – 1 – 4

Suggested Bet: EARN TO BURN TO WIN.

RACE 6

(2) RAMP IT UP has had the two runs back from a break & hit the line well at each. He now gets to his preferred 1600m trip & although the map & gate don’t look overly appealing I’ll stick with him. (5) HEADHUNTER & (3) DETRIMENTAL ran the quinella in a recent race at Doomben over this distance range, The latter is 1.5kg better off at the weights for a narrow defeat & may be able to turn the tables although the gates suggest perhaps not. (6) REZONE is flying, no knock just needs to improve to figure at this stronger level.

Numbers: 2 – 5 – 3 – 6

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 7

Very confident (3) CRASH THE PARTY can break the maiden status here. Very good three back when unlucky not to win she then went to the Magic Millions maiden when too far back in a slowly run race. Latest run was the standout finishing on the heels of the placegetters in the Magic Millions Guineas which was lengths better than this race. Can only see the mile being positive & she gets her best chance yet to register her first win. (9) MY CHARM has hit form & will be strong late whilst (4) WAR KING & (2) NORTH POLE who are well in the market rate place chances only in my opinion.

Numbers: 3 – 9 – 4 – 2

Suggested Bet: CRASH THE PARTY TO WIN.

RACE 8

Looking for positive market support around the resuming (6) CASTILLIAN who although yet to win fresh doesn’t have a bad first up record. He’s been close up at the beginning of his last couple of preps & from the inside gate here should land a gun run for Ryan Maloney who just keeps on riding winners. (2) BATTLEFIELD backs up from a good effort last Saturday, gate not ideal, suggest he will drift back & look to get home over the leaders late. (5) SER JOH is always a chance when drawing an inside gate, that’s the case today which should see him nice & handy from the outset.

Numbers: 6 – 2 – 5 – 1

Suggested Bet: Follow any market support for CASTILLIAN.

RACE 9

Found this 1000m dash a very difficult looking race with more questions than answers. I’ve settled on one at odds being (10) BRERETON who will benefit greatly from the first up run & generally improves sharply second-up. He’s a horse who can give away too much start at times however from the inside draw here I’d expect the instructions to Ceejay Graham will be to have him in a position close enough to win if the gaps come in the straight. (1) VODKA MARTINI is the best performed horse in the race, drawn to get the box seat run he just needs to find his best form & can do so here against easier opposition. (2) CHAKRA BOY, (3) FLEETWOOD plus many others in the mix.

Numbers: 10 – 1 – 2 – 3

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 10

Hard to go past (11) TRUE AMOR in this closing race. He tagged the impressive Now Is The Hour all the way at the Gold Coast & almost ran him down on the line. From an inside draw he should race right up on the speed once again & prove hard to beat. (8) GOSPEL GIRL rarely runs a bad race & her first up record is a good one, won’t be far away whilst (7) PRESS LINK is a very interesting runner back from an unsuccessful Hong Kong stint, not raced for a very long time is a big market watch first up.

Numbers: 11 – 8 – 7 – 1

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

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