Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Doomben Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

Wet track is assured at Doomben, just how wet we won’t know until after this opening race. Although getting back is never ideal around Doomben the second-up JEMOMA ALPILAGE steps up in distance which based on her two outings to date looks very suitable. She may even settle closer which would be a bonus, I’ll lean to her however am looking for each-way. Nothing wrong with TIME TO PROPHET’s form at Townsville, she then drew 14 of 16 at the Gold Coast settling a long way back before making ground, pole gate this time around & she has won on soft ground. RUN LUCY RUN must be included on her recent debut 2nd here in midweek company.

Numbers: 8 – 5 – 9 – 1

Suggested Bet: JEMOMA ALPILAGE EACH-WAY (small bet).

RACE 2

There’s a few wide open races this afternoon & this is the first of them! VICTORIA ROC seems to perform best with her races spaced & that’s the case today having not raced for a month. She draws well, gets a 3kg claim & is clearly better suited on wet ground than dry. Right down the bottom DEFERENTIAL is the 7th emergency, he’s also an emergency in the final race, who knows where or even if he’ll go around however should he do so he has the form to win either. DRIALLE may need luck from the wide draw, scratchings will likely help though.

Numbers: 6 – 23 – 1 – 22

Suggested Bet: Wide exotics best.

RACE 3

TRANSATLANTIC would have been short & a ‘good thing’ here however he’s been saved for a later race. LADY LE DA comes up early market favourite, she’s close to a win however I’m not sure she deserves favouritism with her get back run on pattern around here? To be honest though there’s not much else & if she’s close enough might be the one, I’d want a decent price though. COMMODUS will roll forward, no jockey engaged as I type & has 64.5kg without any claim at this stage… SIMPLY REFUSE an improver.

Numbers: 10 – 1 – 12 – 6

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 4

Just might be the right race for MASCARET however I wouldn’t be having my last on her as she’s a little questionable once that winning post comes into her vision. Unlucky not to win here last start she draws to land the right run in the race just behind the leaders & she’s clearly better suited on wet ground as she’s had 6 tries on dry for zero wins/placings. MAYFAIR SPIRIT closed off well first run for the new yard, nice weight drop & importantly handles all going. IVERSON in the mix however he needs a drying track.

Numbers: 8 – 6 – 10 – 4

Suggested Bet: MASCARET TO WIN (small bet $4.20 or better).

RACE 5

TRANSATLANTIC will go around at a short quote here due to his impressive last start Eagle Farm win when parked up on speed powering away from his rivals in the straight. The stable had suggested he would eventually produce that sort of effort & as a result he’s now in Queensland Guineas discussions. I’d like black figures should the track remain in the heavy range. RINGERS REWARD & TRIFLING get back, that’s always been their pattern & today will be no different, they need to be making their moves on the home turn or prior to have any chance. TYPHOON TIP won at big odds here recently, prior runs were better than on face value & she’s in the mix once again.

Numbers: 1 – 10 – 4 – 3

Suggested Bet: TRANSATLANTIC ($2.00 or better).

RACE 6

Another very open race where I’ll lean to the last start winner RED TOP who although stretching out to the 2000m trip for the first time gives every impression he’ll run it out strongly. His winning effort at the Gold Coast was a good one considering making ground was near impossible all day & there he was coming from worse than midfield to arrive late at the end of 1800m. Soft track form is good & he’s bred to handle anything wetter. I’ll throw in CHAYSE ‘N’ ARTIE as although he gets back, he does handle the wet well. Fourth start since arriving from the UK CAVE DIVER could be ready to show something now.

Numbers: 2 – 5 – 12 – 10

Suggested Bet: RED TOP EACH-WAY (small bet).

RACE 7

CHINNY BOOM hasn’t won beyond 1100m however she has placed at this 1200m trip & 1300m suggesting she’s still the one to beat. She’s a class mare who wore down the leader at the Gold Coast & importantly can sit on speed & handles wet ground well. NORTHERN EXPRESS draws awkwardly however continues to race well, suggest Taylor Marshall may ride positively from the start as there’s not a lot of pace on the map, 2 starts for as many wins on heavy ground. Sydney visitor EITHER OAR is one of the on-pacers who will also looking to push on from a wide gate early on.

Numbers: 4 – 8 – 12 – 6

Suggested Bet: CHINNY BOOM TO WIN.

RACE 8

MAJESTIC BOOM is unbeaten having gone from a 100/1 maiden win on debut to a Saturday metro Class 1 at Eagle Farm a fortnight back. He now turns up in a very open no metro win affair which looks quite suitable, no surprise to see him make it 3 from 3. MILL ROSSA seems a good price, wet ground has never been an issue for him & he’s a lot better than his last start suggests which didn’t pan out well, nicely drawn. Gets even more open from then on.

Numbers: 17 – 2 – 3 – 12

Suggested Bet: MAJESTIC BOOM EACH-WAY.

RACE 9

Can’t believe I’m tipping KANAZAWA to win two straight! He ticks more boxes than most here though being wet ground, weight & draw however I’m aware he’s not the most honest galloper going around, he did almost throw it away late last start. Fingers crossed! ROMAN AUREUS could turn his form around here without any surprise, his recent efforts have been a little below par however he too ticks a few important boxes. Expect THE DROVER to roll forward once again from the good draw, chance if he can hold his winning form.

Numbers: 8 – 4 – 10 – 5

Suggested Bet: KANAZAWA EACH-WAY.

RACE 10

Hoping DEFERENTIAL gains a start here as the 6th emergency as he’s just busting to win a race & this appears very suitable. Bolted in beating a subsequent winner first up on heavy ground before putting in a couple of solid efforts his next two placing in town. Well weighted hopefully gets his chance. BRENTWOOD rolls forward from the inside gate, he’s a better chance around here than Eagle Farm, may take some catching. EN POINTE is flying, will need to overcome a wide draw though.

Numbers: 22 – 1 – 8 – 4

Suggested Bet: DEFERENTIAL EACH-WAY.

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