Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Randwick Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

Race 1

Golden Eagle Day at Randwick on Saturday should be on a dry surface, showers are possible on race day itself, hopefully they hold off. We open the card with a 1500m BM78, (4) SHE MOVES TOO has accepted both here & at Doomben, in a perfect world she runs up there in a weaker race however wherever she heads I’ll be on as she looks ready to win fourth run back. Should she not run here I’ll lean to her stablemate (7) DONATELLO who has been good both runs this time in hitting the line strongly on each occasion, gets relief in the weights which is a positive. (8) CABBUCIO in the mix also.

Numbers: 4 – 7 – 8 – 6

Suggested Bet: SHE MOVES TOO EACH-WAY/DONATELLO.

Race 2

Big numbers in the Highway, max of 16 post scratchings. (2) BLUISH HUE has solid form lines however will likely go around red figures which doesn’t thrill me, selection wise he goes on top however I’d need something better than even money if putting the cash on. Couple of roughies with chances, (7) HERALD ANGEL looks a wet tracker, should the rain arrive her chances will increase significantly.

Numbers: 2 – 7 – 5 – 4

Suggested Bet: Exotics best.

Race 3

Open looking race. I’ll lean to (4) RUINATION who tackled something harder last start & although out of the placings the run should be completely overlooked. He’s a leader/on pacer who missed the start, the positive was his finishing effort which was strong sectionally from the 600m. 1300m suits, just needs to jump on terms. (1) MAWJOOD & (2) FIDDLERS GREEN resume with solid first up records, trials suggest both will be competitive fresh.

Numbers: 4 – 2 – 1 – 8

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

Race 4

The half-million-dollar Four Pillars Midway is up next, they don’t get much more open than this! (13) MAGICAL MOMENTS beat all bar the winner first up in midweek grade before I thought ok in a Rosehill Midway last start, she didn’t attack the line however did make ground suggesting the additional 100m could be ok. (1) ALABAMA STATE is rarely far away, comes off a last start win & is aided by the 3kg claim. There’s many with solid credentials however wide gates could ruin their chances, a lot of luck will be required. An absolute lottery!

Numbers: 13 – 1 – 6 – 5

Suggested Bet: EXOTICS, as wide as you can afford.

Race 5 (Best Bet)

Tipping the import (2) PERISHER who got the job done well at his first start in the country & as we know the stable are flying. Whilst he’ll take good improvement from the run, he jumps 500 metres in distance & 4.5kg in weight, is that a concern? Probably not as he did rise 400m between starts overseas to 2011m & bolt in, the opposition here aren’t strong either. (5) STEEL BLAZE can figure on dry ground, anything worse then forget it. (9) THINK ITZ YOU racing well has upside.

Numbers: 2 – 5 – 9 – 8

Suggested Bet: PERISHER TO WIN (want black figures).

Race 6

Another wide-open race. I’m going to lean to the Waller runner (3) ERTIJAAJ on an each-way basis. Only lightly raced she draws well here & should box seat, first up win was dominant before excuses last time out in a stronger race. (16) SYLPH’s form jumps up off the page, competitive in much stronger races than this however her record speaks for itself with just the single win, can Zac Purton get the best out of her? (7) CHIX & (11) JUST MAZ are both lightly raced with good records & plenty of upside, just monitor betting moves the latter being first up.

Numbers: 3 – 16 – 7 – 11

Suggested Bet: ERTIJAAJ EACH-WAY (small bet).

Race 7

The Group 2 Russell Balding worth 3 million is a mini-Everest with a number of runners going around once again this time over 100m further. I’m siding with (1) JIMMYSSTAR & (8) HEADWALL who both finished close up in the big one here a fortnight back. The latter ran better figures than Ka Ying Rising from the 600m & was with the HK champ all the way down the straight. With a smother from the inside draw he just needs an out late. (1) JIMMYSSTAR won this race last year, no doubt the additional trip suits, the concern is how far back he settles from the wide draw. (2) HEADLEY GRANGE had zero luck last start, well worth including in exotics at least.

Numbers: 8 – 1 – 2 – 5

Suggested Bet: HEADWALL TO WIN.

Race 8

Well, here we go, 10 million up for grabs in the Golden Eagle. It boils down to whether you’re in the (16) SHEZA ALIBI camp or you’re not, and if you’re not then finding one to beat her isn’t an easy task. I’m with her, yes, it’s an interesting prep, the 2000m run still seems odd however the Moody/Coleman Team know the horse better than I do & I’m sure she’ll be spot on for this. If she is then the others won’t be getting a look in as she’s right up there with the best horses in the country & has a dazzling turn of foot. (3) AUTUMN BOY chased her home in the Makybe Diva two back, not raced since the Epsom when needing clearer running, nice & fresh draws well for Zac Purton. The consistent (2) SKYHOOK has to be included; gate isn’t ideal though.

Numbers: 16 – 3 – 2 – 1

Suggested Bet: SHEZA ALIBI TO WIN.

Race 9 (Best Bet)

Listed Sydney Gold Cup, there’s a few here I’ve put the pen through over the years… That’s certainly not the case with (14) BARRENGARRY who is building a tidy record improving with every run. Good, strong Midway win two back he almost ran down Anthracite last start having to come from last & here they meet again with weights slightly favouring (14) BARRENGARRY. (5) POUNDING should be peaking third run back having finished close up both runs this prep, weight drop helps. Happy to take on (9) STARZINTHEIREYES, had too many chances imo, does fare better at the weights today though, perhaps that will help.

Numbers: 14 – 5 – 10 – 9

Suggested Bet: BARRENGARRY TO WIN.

Race 10

We wind up the day with a very open looking BM78. (9) MERCY ME should be primed third run back & both outings this prep have been solid. She rises nothing in weight & this is certainly her pet trip. (3) COMPENSATION the big market watch in the race, won 3 of 4 at his first prep, won & placed at his two lead-up trials, stable going really well, follow any market support. (5) SYLPH always a chance even off the wide draw, it’s the strike rate which is more of a concern.

Numbers: 9 – 3 – 5 – 15

Suggested Bet: MERCY ME EACH-WAY (small bet) – Very progressive galloper who is building a nice record. He ticked the distance box last start when almost winning & maps to gain a good run from the gate. In a field of mostly non-winners, he’s the complete opposite.




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