Races

Scott Embry’s Thursday Northam Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

Race 1

ROCK THE MIC found the line well in a lowly maiden handicap at York and then showed it was no fluke when running second in a 54+ behind Capable Angel at Belmont Park. Back into a maiden and has seemingly found his feet since heading out to the staying trips. Looks a match race between ROCK THE MIC and SAISOKU and given that Pike is on one and Jason Lyon is on the other, you know ROCK THE MIC will be the bigger price. SAISOKU isn’t the kind of animal you’d want to be taking too short a price about. He’s big, he’s awkward and he moves like Sean Darcy in the fourth quarter. Gets Pike, gets every chance, but as we saw with Poppy’s Roses at $1.18 last start – these staying maidens are traps. ROCK SILVER racing like he wants ground. YALDA NIGHT has been battling away as long as West Coast have been rebuilding.

Numbers: 3 – 2 – 4 – 1

Suggested Bet – ROCK THE MIC WIN

Race 2

FLYING IN THE WIND and MR MELLON are two talented 3 year olds who will both dominate this market and likely dominate this race. They both won maidens impressively at 1200m and then headed straight into 3 year old 1400s. FLYING IN THE WIND behind Roger and Treasured Legacy and Rogue Ruler, MR MELLON behind Roger, Swift Ruler, Rogue Ruler and Treasured Legacy. FLYING IN THE WIND is the way we’ll go with Pike but wouldn’t be surprised if MR MELLON was allow to stride this time around and took running down. Don’t think he was suited by going so slow on a rail out day – more of a rolling type. THE LUCKY CHIP comes through a fast run, winner producing race. KAT FIVE has the pads coming off and showed some upside last prep.

Numbers: 6 – 5 – 7 – 4

Suggested Bet – FLYING IN THE WIND WIN

Race 3

LUMINOUS LIL hasn’t had much go her way so far in a short career. Ran well behind Cos I Am on debut at Belmont as a 2 year old and then when resuming at Northam first-up, no trial 196 days later ran into Blue Destiny, One Last Resort and Yamanex in a maiden with far more depth to it than this. Just needs to overcome a trick draw. KEPPEL GATE was spinning the wheels a bit on debut on a Heavy9 and then had a freshen leading into last start when racing greenly and ending up in the slow part of the track at Northam on a heavy fence meeting. Ear Muffs go on, Pike goes on – does the money go on? Think so? APOLLO STORM won her trial in style recently at Belmont. INCREDIBLE MR FOX wouldn’t go straight last start and that cost him finishing a bit closer.

Numbers: 4 – 6 – 5 – 1

Suggested Bet – LUMINOUS LIL EACHWAY

Race 4

DON’T DECLARE vs SNOW MONKEY. William Pike vs Chris Parnham. Simon Miller vs…Simon Miller. They could nearly go around $2 a pop and then the rest of the field $12+ in a market that works its way down to 118-120% closer to jump time. Going to side up with SNOW MONKEY who chased really hard behind Flying Swagman first-up over 1100m and has the race fitness on her side. DON’T DECLARE was awesome behind Luana Miss in a Placid Ark Prelude and a Placid Ark as a 3 year old and then ‘disappointed’ in his one run last prep at Ascot. Still worth remembering that Xentaro is now a 72+ horse and Don’t Declare drops 1kg from that 3 year old 0WMLY into a maiden. Understandably popular/favourite. PLAY DEL SOL will pinch one eventually. CALLTEX has found a maiden 5L stronger than usual to debut in.

Numbers: 9 – 2 – 5 – 10

Suggested Bet – SNOW MONKEY WIN

Race 5 (Best Bet)

FROSTED WARRIOR didn’t get a real run at them first-up at 1100m in a race short of his best, ran well without luck behind Moose and subsequent winner Tex N Cee at his second-up run and then third-up sat wide throughout and was doing his best work late behind Bourbonontherocks. On the 8 day back-up, out to 1600m and looks the horse on the improve. DE LAGO’S ROCK is another of the Josh Brown runners with Pike booked to ride at his midweek sojourn in Perth. He tried hard behind Costa Del Darlo but don’t think that race had anywhere near as much depth to it as the form races that Frosted Warrior comes through. LOHTSE looks like she’ll get ground. FLASH FORTUNE actually wasn’t horrible on debut.

Numbers: 3 – 7 – 13 – 12

Suggested Bet – FROSTED WARRIOR WIN

Race 6

CHEYNE BAY was stiff not to win first-up when narrowly defeated by in form Parnham galloper Show The Way. He was a bit slow out, he was ducking and weaving to find a passage on straightening and he was strong late and through the line. Always wary that these staying types might not be as sharp second-up but if he can reproduce dropping back in grade from a C5 into a C3 he should be hard to hold out. CHEYNE BAY resumed over 1400m and was doing her best late. She’ll continue to get better the more ground they step her out over. ATLANTIS BEACH had a set of shades added last start and it sharpened him up again. VANCOUVER STORM gets down to only 51.5kg after the Giaan O’Donnell claim.

Numbers: 1 – 4 – 2 – 7

Suggested Bet – CHEYNE BAY WIN

Race 7

SHOW THE WAY has returned in great order and for a former ‘nonny’ he’s all of a sudden looking to win a third straight race. Always had the ability but lost his way a little for 12 months and spent a lot of time racing in lower grade Saturday races which at that stage, but this preparation he’s won a pair of C5 races at Northam and is thriving. See no reason why he can’t win again? QUEEN ARIA was run off her legs first-up at 1100m. Scream had them all uncomfortable from start to finish and thought she did a good job all things considered. Different speed profile at 1400 here. IDYLLIC RULER is a different horse at Northam. Must jump to give himself a fighting chance. RANDOM REWARDS can be a bit hard to catch but on her day she’s capable.

Numbers: 5 – 7 – 1 – 8

Suggested Bet – SHOW THE WAY WIN

Quaddie (Race 4 – 7)

2,9

3,7

1,2,4

5,7




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