Sports

Robbie Von’s F1 – Mexico City Grand Prix Preview

Posted on | Posted by Robbie Von

NINTH OR BETTER. THAT’S ALL KIMI NEEDS IN MEXICO

Kimi Antonelli can finish ninth in Mexico City this weekend and walk away World Champion. Ninth. For a bloke with nine wins this season, that’s not a huge ask.

But first, Austin.

KIMI DID HIS BIT IN TEXAS

Pole. Perfect start. Led into Turn 1. Leclerc had the lead for a stretch through the stops, but Kimi had it back on lap 32 and won by 13 seconds on a one-stop. Toto Wolff says the kid walked into his office before the race and told him he had no nerves. Watching that, you believe it.

We tipped Kimi at $3.50. Straight to the bank.

The title party had to wait though. He needed Russell ninth or worse and Hamilton fifth or worse. Russell came eighth. Hamilton came fourth.

Russell’s day summed up his season. A five second penalty on lap 1 for leaving the track at Turn 13 after contact with Piastri, then stuck behind the McLaren for about 30 laps. His words… “I just didn’t have the pace and I’m unsure why that is.”

Ferrari’s new parts looked handy. Leclerc finished second, set the fastest lap and passed Verstappen on lap 49, so our Leclerc Top 3 at $2.75 saluted. Hamilton reckons a late VSC cost them a double podium.

Max qualified second and finished third, but it was messy. Power unit issues, a slow stop and tyres he said “were not the right ones.” The Verstappen win streak ends at two, and our Max to win at $1.90 and Max fastest lap at $2.25 both missed. Two from four, still in front.

Hadjar had a shocker. Clutch problem at the start, told to move over for Max, then a pit lane system issue. Sixth, and fuming. Norris went eighth to fifth after Piastri was told to let him through, and Oscar finished seventh. Gasly scraped tenth with a damaged floor. And Aston Martin? Stroll 15th from the pit lane, Alonso 16th. Compared to other weeks, not a bad result for Aston to be fair.

WHERE THE CHAMPIONSHIP STANDS

Antonelli 365. Russell 242. Hamilton 241. Verstappen 236. Leclerc 233. Norris 211.

Five races left, 125 points on the table. Max, Leclerc and Norris are now mathematically gone. It’s Kimi against his teammate and Lewis.

So here’s the deal. Kimi finishes ninth or better in Mexico and it’s over. Even if he has a nightmare, Russell has to win with Kimi tenth or worse, or Hamilton has to win with Kimi out of the points completely. And if it somehow ends level, Kimi’s nine wins settle it on countback.

When he does get it done, he’ll be 20 years old. The youngest World Champion in F1 history, beating Sebastian Vettel’s 2010 record by more than three years, and Italy’s first champion since Alberto Ascari in 1953.

MEXICO CITY

Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez, October 30 to November 1. 71 laps of 4.304km. No Sprint.

This place is weird and wonderful. It sits more than 2,200 metres above sea level, the highest track on the calendar. Cooling and power units get a proper workout, which is not what Red Bull want to hear after Austin. Then there’s the run to Turn 1, around 1.2km from the grid, and that final sector through the stadium. Best atmosphere of the year, bar none.

Lights out is 4am Monday, Perth time. Set the alarm.

THE TEAMS

Red Bull

Max is favourite at $2.25, and history says that’s fair. He’s won Mexico five times, more than anyone, in 2017, 2018 and three straight from 2021 to 2023. Best driver on the grid at his best track. If the power unit behaves, he’s the one to beat. Hadjar at $23.00 again is a roughie.

Mercedes

Kimi at $2.75. He doesn’t need to win, he needs ninth. But don’t be shocked if he goes and does it in style anyway. Russell at $13.00 has to win just to keep this alive.

Ferrari

Leclerc at $10.00 is interesting. He’s been on the Mexico podium in each of the last three years, he had the fastest lap in Austin, and the new parts are working. Hamilton at $12.00 needs a win and a miracle.

McLaren

Norris at $12.00 won here last year. Piastri at $29.00 just needs a clean weekend. McLaren and Red Bull are dead level on 355 in the fight for third in the Constructors, so expect them to throw everything at it.

PLAYS FOR THIS WEEKEND

Max Verstappen to Win – $2.25 (five Mexico wins, nobody has more)

Lewis Hamilton to Place – $2.50 (The old dog would love to celebrate the young pup’s glory with a podium)

Kimi Antonelli to Win – $2.75 (why not crown yourself in style)

Oscar Piastri to Place – $5.50 (a roughie but he deserves some luck in 2026)

A 20 year old needing ninth, Max at his favourite track and a Ferrari that’s finally firing. Get up early for this one.

Happy punting!

Odds correct at time of publication. TABtouch markets available now.




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