Races

Andrew Hawkins’ Royal Ascot Preview: Day 5

Posted on | Posted by Andrew Hawkins

RACE 1

It’s been a very difficult Royal Ascot – at least for those of us who try to look around the favourites and outside the obvious in the market – but hopefully Day 5 allows us to find some redemption. We have a new Day 5 opening race, too – the G2 Norfolk Stakes has switched with the Listed Chesham Stakes, which is now run on Thursday. The Norfolk Stakes, over five furlongs (a1000m), is for the fastest and most precocious two-year-olds of the week. First run in 1843 as the New Stakes, it has become one of the key early-season races for juvenile sprinters. It has also had some wild recent results – The Ridler won at 50-1 in 2022 and Valiant Force won at 150-1 in 2023 – before Charles Darwin justified heavy support last year. Perhaps it is fitting that we should side with aptly named UNDERDOG for trainer Richard Spencer and jockey Saffie Osborne. Spencer has had juvenile success at Royal Ascot in the past and Underdog’s debut win at Sandown just eight days ago suggested he could improve quickly. Whether it will be enough to prevail here, he is one to follow. Coolmore is represented by THROUGH THE YEARS, for American trainer Wesley Ward, and favourite CARRY THE FLAG among two runners for Aidan O’Brien. While the market is keen on Carry The Flag with his form around horses like Great Barrier Reef and Sun Goddess, Through The Years quickened nicely at Aqueduct last time out and should be able to extend from near a likely hot tempo. They are the logical dangers. Next best is another Ward runner, FANSHELL BEACH, who has James McDonald aboard and just needs to step away on terms to be a threat.

Numbers: 17-21-3-20

Suggested Bet: Underdog EACH WAY

RACE 2

The G2 Hardwicke Stakes over a mile and a half (a2400m) is the main lead-up at Royal Ascot to next month’s G1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes. It is for the older middle-distance horses and it often attracts proper G1 talent, even though it sits at Group 2 level. Harbinger, Sea Moon, Dartmouth and Crystal Ocean all won it for Sir Michael Stoute, while Rebel’s Romance added another international feather to his cap when winning last year. This does look a good spot for KALPANA, a course and distance Group 1 winner of the Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes last year (she also won the race the year before but it was run on Ascot’s inner track). She was second in the King George last year too. It was a top effort to win the G3 Aston Park Stakes last time out under a 7lb penalty and that should have her right on song for this, especially given she’s unpenalised here. ETHICAL DIAMOND won the Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap at the track and trip at Royal Ascot last year, the first of a treble that went on to take in the Ebor Handicap and, surprisingly, the G1 Breeders’ Cup Turf. Whether he’s going to develop into a consistent high-class performer at this level remains to be seen but he should get a better setup than he had last time out in Dubai. GIAVELLOTTO finished ahead of Ethical Diamond in the Sheema Classic last start. He’s the epitome of honesty and consistency and he will run another solid race. JAN BRUEGHEL struggled on bottomless ground when attempting to defend his title in the G1 Coronation Cup; it was officially good to soft but it was clearly much worse than that. He has handled wet ground before but it was different to anything he had faced. Having to wheel back two weeks after that effort is a concern and perhaps this will just top him off for the King George.

Numbers: 11-3-4-6

Suggested Bet: Kalpana WIN

RACE 3

The G1 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes is the final Group 1 of Royal Ascot and the meeting’s most important six-furlong sprint. It has had several names over the years – the Cork and Orrery, Golden Jubilee, Diamond Jubilee, Platinum Jubilee (signifying the late monarch’s milestones) – but the race itself has remained one of the great global sprint targets. It has also been kind to Australian-bred sprinters, from Choisir and Starspangledbanner to Black Caviar and Merchant Navy. Flying the Australian flag this year will be a New Zealand trainer (Chris Waller), jockey (James McDonald) and pair of owners (Cambridge Stud’s Brendan & Jo Lindsay), but JOLIESTAR is all Aussie. By Zoustar out of Jolie Bay, who is a sister to a Jubilee winner in Merchant Navy, she was an Inglis purchase in 2022 and has performed at the highest level since early in her three-year-old days. This season, she has raced as well as ever and this race looks so suitable for her. The middle draw is a minor negative and it’s going to take a smart ride from McDonald but she has so many attributes that make her the right type here. It would be an emotional win now, too, after Cambridge Stud announced the death of Savabeel on Friday morning. Savabeel would have been a potential first mating for Joliestar when she retired. She can defeat French sprinter SAJIR, who returns to a more suitable six furlongs after winning at Chantilly over five furlongs last start, and Japanese raider SATONO REVE, who is looking to improve on his runner-up finish last year and who has an ideal high draw. If there’s value for exotics, perhaps it could come from KHAADEM – his form is nothing to write home about of late but he has tackled this race three times for two wins and a fourth (that fourth came in 2020 behind Hello Youmzain, who raced in the same Cambridge Stud colours as Joliestar). Don’t discount him from the minors.

Numbers: 17-13-14-6

Suggested Bet: Joliestar WIN

RACE 4

The G3 Jersey Stakes is for the three-year-olds over seven furlongs (a1400m). It is often a race for horses who were not quite good enough for the Guineas, or who are coming back in trip after finding a mile too far. That does not make it weak – Ribchester and Expert Eye both won this before taking G1 races. It is one of those races where a horse can look like a specialist one day and a top-class miler a few months later. THE PRETTIEST STAR was one who did tackle a Guineas, in her case the 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket. She was hardly disgraced either, finishing fourth, and it was enough to put her on the radar of Wathnan Racing who subsequently secured her. She looked to see the mile out well enough and it won’t surprise to see her back up in trip later in the season, but this looks a good spot for her now. She goes on top of INTO THE SKY, who was fourth in the colts’ equivalent at Newmarket but beaten a far greater margin. The form stood up in the G1 St James’s Palace Stakes on Tuesday and the seven furlongs looks his sweet spot so he is a big threat. ANDAB gets a visor for the first time for Joseph O’Brien. He has been racing well without winning and the return to seven furlongs also look a plus for him. He’s one for exotics. Next best is likely favourite SABER STRIKE, who has won both of his starts handily and has plenty of upside.

Numbers: 17-9-3-12

Suggested Bet: The Prettiest Star WIN

RACE 5

The Wokingham Stakes over six furlongs (a1200m) is the sprint equivalent of the Royal Hunt Cup and, in Australian terms, probably the closest thing Royal Ascot has to a Newmarket Handicap. It is a historic, big-field cavalry charge, first run in 1813, and it regularly produces a result that looks obvious in hindsight but impossible beforehand. Rohaan won it twice, in 2021 and 2022, while last year’s winner Get It returned at 28/1. Big weights have not been the impediment it might seem and that could be one reason to look to topweight SPY CHIEF, who is drawn against the stands-side rail and who will likely jump out and lead. Finished alongside horses like Notable Speech and Believing in the G1 July Cup last year and, although he has plenty of weight to carry, he is capable of sticking on for a long way. EVENING SAIGON has had four starts since returning from a year on the sidelines, winning two of those four starts and finishing a neck second in another. His only failure came on heavy ground which he won’t get here. Drawn alongside Spy Chief and should get the right trail into the race. FLASH HARRY can mix his form but looks capable of rising higher in the ratings on good to firm ground. That appears critical. Next is TEN POUNDS, who was third in this race last year and gets in 3lb well at the weights.

Numbers: 1-24-15-13

Suggested Bet: Spy Chief EACH WAY

RACE 6

The Golden Gates Stakes is one of the newer handicaps, introduced in 2020 and run over a mile and two furlongs (a2000m) for three-year-olds. It probably dilutes the week a little – horses here might otherwise have gone to the Britannia, King George V, Hampton Court or King Edward VII – but it has still found a role as a target for progressive middle-distance types. Keep an eye on PERISHER as a potential future Australian horse. Owned by Australian Bloodstock, he comes off a three-year-old conditions win at Naas last time out that suggested the handicapper hadn’t yet figured him out. Expecting another big effort. London Gold Cup winner LOST BOYS is one of two horses in here that has been bought by Wathnan Racing and is having a first start in their colours (the other is London Gold Cup runner-up Sahara King). Lost Boys meets Sahara King 1lb worse off but he’s the sort of straightforward type who should prove suited here while Sahara King might be the better prospect long-term. FOLK PAGEANT has kept finding another level at her last three starts. She’s gone up another 10lb from her last win and she returns quickly but her improvement is unlikely to stop here. ACCREDIT, who makes his three-year-old debut and who looks a 2000m horse in the making, is next.

Numbers: 14–12-16-5

Suggested Bet: Perisher EACH WAY

RACE 7

Royal Ascot closes with the Queen Alexandra Stakes, the longest race of the meeting and the longest Flat race run under rules in Britain. It is over two miles, five furlongs and 143 yards (approximately 4355m), so it is a race that often attracts a mix of flat stayers and horses with jumps form. Brown Jack won it six years in a row between 1929 and 1934, while in modern times it has become a race where Willie Mullins and Joseph O’Brien have both had plenty of success. They look to hold the key again this year. Mullins sends out two horses secured from continental Europe – former Pole LE DESTRIER and German Group 1 placegetter COLUMBUS. While Columbus was better performed before Mullins acquired him and has had a straightforward preparation, Le Destrier has only raced twice since the end of 2023 and has clearly had issues. However, Le Destrier was terrific behind a race-fit Scandinavia in the G3 Saval Beg Levmoss Stakes at what was his first run since June, 2024. Off that, he deserves plenty of respect here, although Columbus – coming off a distant second in a Killarney novice hurdle at his first start for Mullins – is also a winning chance. The Irish team also includes Chester Cup winner A PIECE OF HEAVEN for Joseph O’Brien and ILLINOIS for his father Aidan. A Piece Of Heaven has been very consistent on the flat of late and strikes this set weights event at the right time, while Illinois drops sharply in grade and should stay based on his second in the Gold Cup last year but he comes off that bog track at Epsom and it is a very quick turnaround. Perhaps see what Jan Brueghel does earlier.

Numbers: 9-1-4-8

Suggested Bet: Le Destrier WIN

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