Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Rosehill Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

More feature racing at Rosehill on Saturday on likely dry ground. The meeting gets under way with a very competitive looking 1400m Midway with plenty of good form amongst the contenders. I’ll lean to ALABAMA STATE who does appear to be very close to winning one of these races. Solid his last couple at this level he draws well, carries only a light weight & gets McEvoy to steer. MONTE KATE comes out of the same last start race when wide throughout & very game, should she run the trip out she’ll be right in the finish. PEACE OFFICER always a chance, surely wins one of these eventually. Wouldn’t rule out TOTOKA either, chances don’t end there!

Numbers: 16 – 11 – 2 – 14

Suggested Bet: box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 2

Big numbers to go around in the Highway, when markets went up Wednesday the favourite was almost double figures, that’s a rarity & tells you how open this is. WIGGLES is racing well, unfortunately he doesn’t draw a good gate however in these races anything is possible, they really can win from anywhere. HULU is another with good form & a poor gate whilst BALINDERRY SAL who I have tipped her past two starts draws in, based on the latest effort that may work against her.

Numbers: 2 – 14 – 17 – 15  

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 3

Another open looking race where I’m leaning to the Victorian visitor SHAIYHAR on an each-way basis. He maps well from the good gate likely to settle no worse than midfield & wasn’t far away when resuming over an unsuitable mile trip at Ballarat. He holds a good second-up record & keep in mind is yet to win under 2000m suggesting he now strikes the right distance range. The Waterhouse/Bott stablemates RAF ATTACK & BEAR ON THE LOOSE in the mix whilst I’m loathe to sack MARE OF MT BULLER who is a personal favourite, just gave nothing last start which is concerning.

Numbers: 3 – 5 – 6 – 8

Suggested Bet: SHAIYHAR EACH-WAY.

RACE 4

Terrific race where I have to be with the two at the top of the market SWIFT FALCON & HENLEIN however I’m wary of others in good stables coming through strong provincial performances who have plenty of upside. I would honestly suggest backing both if a profit can be made as they will lap up the 1800m based on what they’ve shown to date. EL CASTELLO is a lightly raced promising type whilst TENBURY WELLS & DUVANA perhaps best of those provincial performers.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 3 – 5

Suggested Bet: SWIFT FALCON/HENLEIN TO WIN.

RACE 5

I’m with the Victorian visitor COLEMAN who on official ratings alone is head & shoulders above this opposition & would be giving away a ton of weight under normal handicap conditions. He also comes out of a couple of major Group 1’s & today drops back to a Group 2 against his own age. He beat all bar the winner in the Slipper & placed in a Pago Pago & Sires Produce! SPIRIT OF WEALTH is the interesting runner, dominant on pace at both wins she now has to step up & take on much stronger company, can’t knock winning form though & she looks raw with plenty of upside. Don’t be surprised to see SWITZERLAND improve, last couple well below par, he’s a lot better than that.

Numbers: 1 – 11 – 2 – 8

Suggested Bet: COLEMAN TO WIN.

RACE 6

Tough looking race. I’m having something each-way on the Victorian visitor STOLI BOLI who on his latest Moonee Valley win will lap up the step to 1400m. Aided by a strong tempo Blake Shinn was on his bike before the home turn putting this one right into the race, he really asserted his dominance over the final 100m coming well clear. The draw does look a little awkward, a touch of luck will be needed early on to find a good spot. SNACK BAR also draws poorly, form this prep has been good though having placed behind a couple of super fillies. KING OF ROSEAU on paper looks to be chasing this longer trip, he rises 300m going a month between runs which must be some concern, he’s in very good hands though.

Numbers: 4 – 5 – 3 – 10

Suggested Bet: STOLI BOLI EACH-WAY.

RACE 7

I could almost tip KOVALICA here however just cannot bring myself to do so, he appears very well placed however that’s been the case many times over the last couple of seasons. I’ll side with the second-up NONCONFORMIST who ran well first up in the Chelmsford, will appreciate the additional distance & has some very strong form lines. Kept fresh having been off the scene for such a long time (over a year) is a positive. I’m a ROYAL PATRONAGE fan & have plenty of respect for PERICLES also, can they run a strong 1900m though?

Numbers: 5 – 4 – 2 – 1

Suggested Bet: NONCONFORMIST EACH-WAY.

RACE 8

Big field going around here. In all fairness GRINGOTTS should be shooting for 5 straight today however due to being held up last start when resuming he was unluckily beaten. A winner of all 3 starts last prep he was spoke of as being a Stradbroke chance however Ciaron Maher put him away for the spring & he’ll go close to getting the rewards in this race. Stablemate JIMMYSTAR has always been highly rated by the trainer, not so much by punters at times however his overall record is very consistent & his first up win was impressive. Giving SEMANA another chance, couldn’t possibly run any worse than last start, she’s a lot better than that.

Numbers: 10 – 19 – 5 – 9

Suggested Bet: GRINGOTTS TO WIN.

RACE 9

OLENTIA is the obvious as she’s at her very best when fresh which is the case today. Given an easy time in a recent trial she wasn’t far from the winner & has only been defeated once in 4 attempts when on resumption. Drawn to get a nice smother she’ll be attacking the leaders strongly late in the race. BLANC DE BLANCE has recovered her 2yo form with a couple of solid runs this prep, she’s in the hunt here. Respect COCO JAMBOO who was a surprise winner first up last prep, market watch. Include ROYAL MERCHANT who did defeat OLENTIA in the trial & was also given an easy time.

Numbers: 3 – 9 – 4 – 1

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 10

Very keen on PHARARI in this closing race however I’m sure I won’t be the only one as she was a real eye-catcher at her latest run which was here when clocking in an unlucky third. Having led throughout at her previous start she didn’t jump well & raced back in the field, then held up in the straight she hit the line strongly once into the clear, unfortunately though by that stage the bird had well & truly flown. Honestly, it’s hard to find a danger, I’ll throw STROMBOLI in however the gate isn’t overly kind.

Numbers: 10 – 4 – 6 – 9

Suggested Bet: PHARARI TO WIN.

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