Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

Scott Embry’s Preview

Race 1 

MISTY METAL is going from strength to strength. She has won 4 on the bounce and has a genuine shot at making it a picket fence. Career high weight concerns and likely to sit in the breeze on a hot tempo but she is flying. THUNDERSTRUT was no match for her last start but dropping back to 1000m, drawn inside and 1.5kg in her favor makes it interesting. ARRUM BOY is likely to march three deep the trip but he is race fit and tough. SATURIA has been sitting in her recent runs and that’s the way she trialed.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 2 – 4

Suggested Bet – MISTY METAL WIN

Race 2

ESSENTIAL SPICE is yet to put in a bad run in her career and is improving with every run. Was incredibly well supported last start when getting the bob in on the line. Safest way to play a tough race. SAMIZDAT is the most interesting runner to the 2 year old scene in a while. $325,000 yearling purchase who has caught the eye at both trials, however, not many juveniles win on debut from last. NEMIROFF has blinkers added to race gear and was sharpened up for this with a 400m dash where he smashed the clock. Looks to cross. REBEL KNIGHT has had a few issues but looks a nice type and the Universal Rulers swim.

Numbers: 4 – 8 – 5 – 6

Suggested Bet – ESSENTIAL SPICE WIN

Race 3

FLOYD put in arguably a career best run first-up in a sharply run 72+ race. He has run second first-up at his last three preparations and then saluted second-up. He maps to absolute perfection here and can make that four second-up wins. YEAH DARDY has won all four races fresh. No rider named in early publications but if he unites with O’Donnell then is right in the mix. THE RIVER has had fetlock surgery since his last win. Wasn’t asked for an effort in his trial. Classy type. UNDISCLOSED should find the front and is proven on rain affected going.

Numbers: 1 – 8 – 2 – 9

Suggested Bet – FLOYD WIN

Race 4

BELLA’S IDOL has run four equally impressive runs this preparation and deserved his last start victory. From the drawn should position up midfield and get first crack at the leaders. BEAUCOUNT set one of the fastest first miles recorded in Belmont staying races over recent years and if they let him get away from them he’ll take some catching. BATTLE TORQUE has put together two barnstorming victories. Maps to get a long way off them here and will concede rivals a fair start. TAXADERMY should stalk the speed and is both honest and consistent.

Numbers: 3 – 6 – 2 – 1

Suggested Bet – BELLA’S IDOL WIN

Race 5

COME PLAY WITH ME looks to be destined to win another feature 3 year old staying event. At the set weight conditions he is the best horse in the race and carries the same as horses he beat home convincingly last start. HABESHA won well in a moderate Pinjarra maiden and then was seriously stiff not to make it two on the bounce. Risks almost 20 ratings points if she knocked off the favorite but expecting her to run a race. STATE PROSECUTOR is drawn to stalk Come Play With Me again and should really finish second. ACONITE hit the line well in a slowly run Oaks.

Numbers: 1 – 8 – 2 – 5

Suggested Bet – HABESHA PLACE

Race 6

NEW AGE was unsuited attempting to tow the field to the leader last start. Forget that she even went round. She is a stayer on the rise and will be forgotten by the market. RED ARMY really announced himself as a progressive WA stayer with his last start victory. The big difference here is the tempo. There is no pace maker like Beaucount in the field but he has a quality turn of foot when Harvey releases the handbrake. NO SAY IN IT is drawn awkwardly but if Pateman finds a spot he can test. PRYING TOM box seats and goes well for Alan Kennedy.

Numbers: 8 – 2 – 4 – 6

Suggested Bet – NEW AGE EACHWAY

Race 7

OREGON BRONZE is up sharply in grade but she has won three on the bounce and most importantly is drawn to lead them up and throw the anchor. Harvey controlling tempo is dangerous for rivals. COUNT TOMOZ OFF may even roll forward such is the lack of speed in this race. Was gallant three deep the trip last start. YINDI won a weak mid week maiden but is a progressive three year old with a motor. TIRRENO sits close handy and that Kalgoorlie race reads up well now.

Numbers: 10 – 6 – 14 – 2

Suggested Bet – OREGON BRONZE WIN

Race 8

TOUCH OF SILVER looks ready to win third up from a spell. Blinkers go on, Harvey goes on and was eye catching in defeat last start when held up at crucial stages. Gets his chance. ABDICATOR will have a lot of supporters with Pike engaged. His first-up effort was strong. ROCKON TOMMY recaptured his best form last start and can definitely go on with it. ONE SHORT was ridden against his pattern last start and should return to his usual box seat position.

Numbers: 4 – 8 – 13 – 5

Suggested Bet – TOUCH OF SILVER WIN

Quaddie (Race 5 – 8)

1

2, 4, 8

2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 10, 14

4, 5, 8, 9, 13

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