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Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 16

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

THURSDAY

Sydney v Geelong, SCG, 5.20pm

This was always going to be a big game for Geelong, but has taken on even greater significance now following their shock loss to the Western Bulldogs last Friday night. And then there is the small matter of some daunting assignments on the horizon, including another tussle at the MCG with Richmond.

Sydney are also in the market for a vital four points after losing to the Tigers last week and must make do here without young gun Isaac Heeney (concussion). His absence places more pressure on the midfield, in particular Dan Hannebery, who has not performed at his best this season after an injury-interrupted summer. The Cats’ on-ball division is clearly gifted and deep, but is not renowned for its work when not in possession.

Lance Franklin has been ticking over OK for the Swans and would dearly love to have a breakout performance to send a message ahead of September. Geelong’s defence had been miserly until last week and Cats coach Chris Scott will be well aware of the need for a team approach to subdue Franklin.

VERDICT: Sydney by 11 points

FRIDAY

Richmond v Adelaide, MCG, 5.50pm

There was considerable fanfare in South Australia last Saturday night and into Sunday after Adelaide came from behind to defeat West Coast at Adelaide Oval. There is no denying the Crows lifted in the final 30 minutes to chalk up a critically important victory, but for the first three quarters, the undermanned Eagles had them on their heels.

Are the Crows back as a result of that win? We’ll know the answer to that in the wake of this contest. Richmond at the MCG is the toughest task in football at present and the Tigers not only butchered the Crows in the grand final last year, but will be desperate to avenge their loss to Don Pyke’s side interstate earlier this season.

Jack Riewoldt was sublime against Sydney last Thursday night and marshals a forward line that lacks big names, but is undeniably effective. At the other end of the ground, intercept defender Nick Vlastuin (suspension) will be missing, but the overall class and manic approach of Richmond before their rabid home fans is an intimidating prospect.

VERDICT: Richmond by 29 points

SATURDAY

Brisbane v Carlton, Gabba, 11.45am

The football world had seen glimpses of Brisbane’s best at various stages in 2018, but sustained four-quarter efforts and wins had been scarce. Then last Sunday, it all came together. The Lions assaulted a vulnerable Fremantle at the source, spread with intent and hit the scoreboard to record an emphatic victory.

It was a high-class performance and one that will be beyond Carlton if they are able to handle the quick turnaround and travel and replicate it. The Blues had a crack against Port Adelaide, but ultimately came up short as the gulf in class became apparent after three-quarter-time. In the fog of so many losses, Blues fans can rest easy they have a superstar in waiting in Charlie Curnow, who will ask plenty of the Lions back line in this match.

VERDICT: Brisbane by 18 points

Port Adelaide v St Kilda, Adelaide Oval, 2.35pm

For much of this season, St Kilda fans have wondered where their side’s best football has been. It is a legitimate concern given the Saints were tipped to challenge for the top eight. Out of nowhere at the MCG, the Saints were involved in an entertaining tussle against Melbourne and deservedly came out on top.

The win followed their stirring effort pre-bye against Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium and fills them with confidence for a testing clash with Port Adelaide. They will be eager to set the record straight after coughing up a victory in the corresponding match last season with a breakdown at a boundary throw-in that led to a Robbie Gray dagger.

But the Power are building nicely, with their defence in particular sure to prove a stumbling block for the Saints. Port don’t bounce out of their back half like some of the premier teams in the competition, but are disciplined and deny opposition sides a fistful of marks inside 50. Factor in a quality midfield and potent attack and it’s not hard to see why they are challenging for a top-four spot.

VERDICT: Port Adelaide by 32 points

Western Bulldogs v Hawthorn, Etihad Stadium, 5.25pm

Spirited Western Bulldogs performances in the wake of the 2016 premiership triumph have been few and far between. Last Friday night’s stirring effort against Geelong, underlined by an engaged midfield display and coach Luke Beveridge’s willingness to anchor six forwards, proved that this side is well and truly capable at its best.

And for that reason, this match is a genuine danger game for Hawthorn, who are in a scrap to play finals. The Hawks weren’t horrid against Greater Western Sydney last Saturday night, but still left Spotless Stadium without the four points and now run headlong into a re-energised Bulldogs outfit, having been rocked midweek by the retirement of Cyril Rioli.

Coach Alastair Clarkson would dearly love to be able to call on his little goal-kicking wizard here, but will have to make do with what talent is at his disposal. Tom Mitchell racked up 50 possessions against the Giants, although the level of support from his fellow midfielders wasn’t telling. If that improves, Hawthorn have the overall class to prevail in a match that has considerably more interest than it did only a fortnight ago.

VERDICT: Hawthorn by 10 points

Melbourne v Fremantle, TIO Stadium, Darwin, 5.40pm

Melbourne remain in the top eight and on track to play finals for the first time since 2006. It’s just that the same applied last month when they were in far better form and not looking to snap a three-game losing streak that has put their game plan and mental capacity in the spotlight again.

They get an opportunity to right the ship against a Fremantle side that was putrid last Sunday, showing no spirit or interest en route to a 55-point home defeat to Brisbane. The Dockers head to Darwin minus Aaron Sandilands (calf), Nat Fyfe (hamstring) and their faints finals aspirations on the scrapheap.

Of more concern for the Dockers is their constant woes in front of goal. If they struggle to kick scores on the slick Optus Stadium surface, it is difficult to fathom how they are going to fill their boots when the inevitable perspiration makes the Sherrin slippery at TIO Stadium.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 28 points

SUNDAY

North Melbourne v Gold Coast, Etihad Stadium, 11.10am

A week after being gunned down by Essendon in a highly entertaining shootout, North Melbourne will be desperate to reapply the clamps against Gold Coast. The Kangaroos have been at their best this season when organised behind the ball and that wasn’t the case last Sunday.

The inability to stem the Bombers’ rebound off half-back proved decisive, as did the unavailability of Ben Jacobs (concussion). The No.1 tagger in the game, Jacobs is expected to return and help stiffen a midfield that has its share of class, but isn’t overly defensive in his absence. As for Gold Coast, this campaign is threatening to unravel and be as ugly as any other in their existence given speculation around the future of co-captains Tom Lynch and Steven May.

VERDICT: North Melbourne by 40 points

Essendon v Collingwood, MCG, 1.20pm

Essendon are rolling. Seriously rolling. Their performances in the past fortnight against West Coast (away) and North Melbourne illustrate the talent and firepower John Worsfold has at his disposal. And because of that, second-placed Collingwood will be on red alert entering this tussle.

The Bombers were “allowed” to play by the Kangaroos and Brad Scott’s men paid a high price. There were no clamps applied to Dyson Heppell and Zach Merrett midfield, while Adam Saad and Conor McKenna streamed off half-back. Expect Nathan Buckley and his coaching staff to put considerable work into that quartet, with the expected return of tagger Levi Greenwood a good start.

Collingwood weren’t overly impressive against Gold Coast, but still chalked up another win. However, it came at a cost with experienced key defender Lynden Dunn sustaining a season-ending knee injury. Dunn’s absence, on top of so many injuries to important personnel, leaves the Magpies slightly vulnerable against a red-hot opponent.

VERDICT: Essendon by 19 points

West Coast v GWS, Optus Stadium, 2.40pm

There is no denying West Coast’s commitment against Adelaide last Saturday. But the simple fact remains the end result was a loss, the Eagles’ third in a row, which further loosened their grip on a top-four berth. Alarmingly, their inability to stem the bleeding in the final term was not the first time this year that an opposition side has got a run-on.

And if there is one side who can get rolling when everything clicks, it is Greater Western Sydney. The Giants were in all sorts of trouble five weeks ago, but the return of Josh Kelly from injury and a desire to become a ferocious tackling and defensively committed outfit has paid huge dividends.

Eagles coach Adam Simpson has a decision to make here. He can continue backing in his players or he can put some serious work into the opposition, ie: tagging the likes of Kelly or Dylan Shiel through the midfield or Lachie Whitfield if GWS again look to use him as a playmaker off half-back. If GWS break even in the midfield battle (and it’s hard to see how they won’t), that should be enough to lift them home factoring in West Coast’s depleted attack.

VERDICT: GWS by 21 points

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