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Digby’s AFL Round 21 Preview

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

Friday, 11 August

Western Bulldogs v GWS, Etihad Stadium 5.50pm

From the moment the 2017 fixtures were released, this was a match which caught the attention of all football fans. A showdown between last season’s preliminary finalists so close to September was always going to be critical. Factor in their thrilling battle earlier in the year in Canberra and what is at stake entering round 21, and this contest promises to deliver what many expected.

Having been inconsistent for the majority of the season, the Bulldogs have finally discovered their mojo. Not all of it, but some. Marcus Bontempelli was outstanding in the win over Brisbane last Saturday, while Jack Macrae is starting to find more of the football. However, the loss of Easton Wood (hamstring) compounds the absence of Dale Morris (broken arm) against a talented GWS outfit which sent an ominous warning to its rivals with a thumping of Melbourne last Saturday.

The Giants are a completely different side with Stephen Coniglio patrolling the midfield and the addition of Brett Deledio provides a touch of class. Nobody has ever questioned the talent on the Giants’ list. But their willingness to play with an elite defensive attitude has been a topic of debate. If the performance against the Demons is the baseline — they not only scored at will but laid 119 tackles — they win the premiership. No Shane Mumford (suspension) is a worry, but it was impossible not be impressed by the dismantling of Melbourne.

VERDICT: GWS by 14 points

Saturday, 12 August

Sydney v Fremantle, SCG 11.45am

Round 20 couldn’t have panned out any better for Sydney. The Swans rebounded from their loss to Hawthorn with a trademark powerful display against Geelong at Simonds Stadium last Friday night that kept alive their top-four aspirations. Then on the Sunday, Richmond dismissed the Hawks — the only side that has beaten the Swans in the past three months — to end their finals aspirations.

With their plight looking considerably brighter at the end of last weekend than it did at the start, don’t expect the Swans to take their foot off the pedal against Fremantle. The Dockers broke through against Gold Coast, a performance that was solid rather than spectacular, although the form of Dockers captain Nat Fyfe did catch the eye.

The 2015 Brownlow medallist is again strong in the air and at the stoppages and headlines a midfield that is the strength of the Fremantle side. It will need to be at its very best opposed to the Swans, whose pressure and ability to hunt the opposition remains their strength. Fremantle had 30 scoring shots against the Suns, but the Swans are a miserly unit following the return of Dane Rampe and Jarrad McVeigh. And at the other end of the ground, Lance Franklin will be desperate to shine after two quiet weeks.

VERDICT: Sydney by 40 points

Geelong v Richmond, Simonds Stadium 12.10pm

Is Geelong’s season unravelling before our very eyes. The quick answer would be yes. Being beaten up at your Simonds Stadium fortress by a team that embarrassed you on the preliminary final stage less than 12 months earlier is far from ideal. Then there is the serious ankle injury to captain Joel Selwood, not to mention the striking suspensions to Tom Hawkins and Mitch Duncan.

Complicating matters in the absence of the aforementioned trio is the arrival of a white-hot Richmond for a match with genuine top-four implications, possibly even top two. The Tigers are doing everything right at the moment, their win over Hawthorn last weekend extremely impressive taking into account the unavailability of key forward Jack Riewoldt (eye) and the Hawks’ solid patch of form.

Geelong will welcome back Patrick Dangerfield from his suspension, but he is going to be the key cog in a depleted midfield. And that shapes as a problem for the Cats given Dustin Martin, Trent Cotchin, Dion Prestia, Kane Lambert, Shaun Grigg and Corey Ellis’ form. Josh Caddy booted four goals as a focal point against Hawthorn, but is capable of pushing further afield if Riewoldt returns as expected.

VERDICT: Richmond by 18 points

Brisbane v Gold Coast, Gabba 2.35pm

There are those who believe the change of coach results in an immediate change of fortunes. If that is indeed the case, many would have been lining up to tip Gold Coast in this Q-Clash following the sacking of Rodney Eade on Tuesday morning. That was before it was revealed Suns key forward Tom Lynch would miss the rest of the season with a PCL injury.

For a side struggling to kick goals, the loss of its most potent forward is a hammer blow. Dean Solomon will need to perform a minor miracle to get the Suns over the line in the absence of so many first-choice players, notably Lynch and Gary Ablett. Whereas the Suns have their issues, Brisbane continue to improve, even though they sit at the foot of the ladder. First-year coach Chris Fagan is extracting consistent efforts from veterans and youngsters and if they can handle the rare scenario of starting favourites, this is a match that should be within the Lions’ grasp.

VERDICT: Brisbane by 20 points

Essendon v Adelaide, Etihad Stadium 5.25pm

Adelaide are at the pointy end of the ladder and premiership favourites. Essendon are in the chop-up for a top-eight spot. Therefore, it is no surprise the Crows have been installed favourites. But this is no lock. Even without suspended midfielder Zach Merrett and hamstrung small forward Orazio Fantasia, the Bombers will have all of Adelaide’s attention.

And so they should. Any side that can move the ball with the speed and dare that Essendon do — and impact the scoreboard — is always a threat. It’s just that the Crows are capable of doing everything Essendon can — but only better. Don Pyke’s men monstered Port Adelaide last Sunday, with their ability to dominate the stoppages simply awesome, as was their defensive prowess.

The Crows are a high-scoring outfit which is no surprise given they boast Taylor Walker, Josh Jenkins, Tom Lynch, Eddie Betts and Charlie Cameron. However, they are also a high-calibre defensive team, ranking fourth in the league, with quality ball users from defence in Brodie Smith and Rory Laird helping set up many of their attacks. They look the complete article.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 21 points

West Coast v Carlton, Domain Stadium 5.40pm

West Coast coach Adam Simpson said he would take a half-full approach in the wake of last Sunday’s loss to St Kilda. That is his right, but there can be no more slip-ups from here on. Historically, 12 wins have been required to secure a finals berth. That might well be the case again this season, but 13 would guarantee it and that means the Eagles need to win this match and then take down Greater Western Sydney and Adelaide in successive weeks.

The Eagles scored quickly at stages against the Saints, thanks in no small part to the influence of spearhead Josh Kennedy. They will think that is again possible against the Blues, even taking into account the effectiveness of the Blues’ defensive structures. Carlton play a very deliberate brand of football, but that is unlikely to get it done against the Eagles in WA. West Coast can win the arm-wrestles on the long Domain Stadium, but have been brought undone by the free-scoring GWS, Melbourne and Port Adelaide.

VERDICT: West Coast by 38 points

Sunday, 13 August

Melbourne v St Kilda, MCG 11.10am

It’s time for Melbourne to get on their bike. No more messing around. Regarded by many as capable of doing some damage in the finals, the Demons have dropped back-to-back games and find themselves in a logjam of sides trying to earn an opportunity in September.

And one of those is St Kilda, who breathed life into their own finals aspirations with a stirring win over West Coast. The clinical finish of Jack Billings gave the Saints hope and they would love nothing more than to build on that and give retiring champion Nick Riewoldt some lasting memories.

The issue for the Saints here is halting the Demons’ influence inside the centre square. It is an area of the ground where Melbourne have been very good, but have also had their lapses. Max Gawn’s form has been heartening of late and if he can win his battle with Billy Longer, then the Demons should be able to generate enough repeat entries to boot a winning total, even with Jesse Hogan (shoulder) on the sidelines.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 4 points

Hawthorn v North Melbourne, University of Tasmania Stadium, 1.20pm

Hawthorn might have bowed out of the finals race with their loss to Richmond last Sunday, but there is no denying that their efforts in the second half of the season have caught many by surprise and indicated a return to September could come as soon as next year.

Hawks coach Alastair Clarkson will view the last three games of the home-and-away season as an opportunity to build and tinker ahead of the 2018 pre-season. North Melbourne have been done and dusted for some time and were really poor against Collingwood. No Jarrad Waite in attack became a glaring deficiency once Ben Brown was concussed. Jack Ziebell went forward — as he has done previously — to become a legitimate target, but he is the inside midfielder the Kangaroos rely heavily on alongside Ben Cunnington, Shaun Higgins, Trent Dumont and Andrew Swallow.

The Hawks will be bolstered by the return from suspension of Luke Hodge. The four-time premiership hero is a calming, yet inspirational figure and helps organise Hawthorn backward of centre. Given North’s forward structure is not at full strength, Hodge’s influence shapes as being profound.

VERDICT: Hawthorn by 29 points

Port Adelaide v Collingwood, Adelaide Oval 2.40pm

Port Adelaide coach Ken Hinkley was aghast at his players’ performance in Showdown 43 and flagged the prospect of changes at selection. The likely return from an ankle injury of Chad Wingard will be enormous for Port, who appear done and dusted as a top-four team, but still need to position themselves as high as possible to be guaranteed a home final in the first week of the post-season.

Their job was made a lot easier by the match review panel suspending Magpies ruckman Brodie Grundy for his tackle on Ben Brown last Saturday night. No Grundy, coupled with Paddy Ryder surely desperate to atone after being comprehensively outplayed by Sam Jacobs, should ensure the Power midfield is presented with sufficient opportunities to wreak havoc.

Port have prided themselves on their defence all year, but were smashed around the stoppages by the Crows and their back line suffered. On the body of work we have seen in 2017, don’t expect lightning to strike in successive weeks, especially with question marks surrounding Collingwood ace Daniel Wells (quad) and the absence of Levi Greenwood (knee).

VERDICT: Port Adelaide by 34 points

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