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Digby’s AFL Round 21 Preview

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

Western Bulldogs v Collingwood

Friday, Etihad Stadium 5.50pm

The Western Bulldogs still believe a top-four spot is attainable. There are those who would argue their percentage and lengthy injury list will conspire against them, but the Bulldogs refuse to follow the script. Their stirring effort against North Melbourne last Saturday night reinforced their credentials and illustrated how brutally difficult they are to topple inside Etihad Stadium. And that spells trouble for Collingwood, who continue to mix their form.

The Bulldogs have taken their share of hits through the midfield, but still possess quality performers in Marcus Bontempelli, Lachie Hunter and Luke Dahlhaus. Luke Beveridge’s side defends superbly and as one and has the capacity to hang tough for long periods. Given how miserly the Bulldogs have been defensively, it’s difficult to see how the Magpies manage a total that proves troublesome.

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs by 32 points.

1st goal scorer: Jake Stringer

Brisbane v Carlton

Saturday, Gabba 11.45am

Just over a fortnight ago, Brisbane coach Justin Leppitsch breathed a sigh of relief after his side took down Essendon at Etihad Stadium. Since then however, the Lions have been putrid in falling to massive defeats to Port Adelaide and Adelaide, all but guaranteeing Leppitsch won’t be at the club next season. Cruelling him is the fact his senior players appear to have checked out.

Carlton’s encouraging three weeks against West Coast, Sydney and Hawthorn counted for little last Sunday when they were exposed by a hard-running and efficient St Kilda side. If the Blues’ on-field leaders Patrick Cripps, Kade Simpson, Bryce Gibbs, Sam Docherty and Matthew Kreuzer guide their teammates early, the Lions’ resistance will fade. The margin won’t be in the vicinity of what we have seen in the past fortnight, but it would be a major shock if Brisbane prevailed.

VERDICT: Carlton by 21 points.

1st goal scorer: Levi Casboult

Hawthorn v North Melbourne

Saturday, MCG 12.10pm

Midway through June, these two sides squared off under the Etihad Stadium roof in a contest bursting with spite. The Hawks emerged triumphant, but were taken aback by the Kangaroos’ ferocious physical attack early. Given what is at stake here and the verbal jousting in the media during the week, there is every likelihood of some individual wars being waged. Hawthorn rarely blink however, and will look to their established superstars to show the way.

The Hawks will be minus James Sicily, who kicked a bag in the round-13 win, through suspension but North have been preparing all week to be without Ben Brown, their own impressive young key forward. Melbourne stunned Hawthorn with their bold approach at stoppages and willingness to run the lines and spread the ball. The Kangaroos aren’t blessed with great zest, rather a rigid game plan and combative mindset. Such an approach suits Alastair Clarkson’s team.

VERDICT: Hawthorn by 30 points.

1st goal scorer: Drew Petrie

GWS v West Coast

Saturday, Spotless Stadium 2.35pm

Greater Western Sydney need no reminding about the importance of taking care of business. The Giants ventured to Metricon Stadium last weekend in second position and finished the round in fourth, despite winning. The narrow margin, coupled with Sydney and Adelaide mauling their opponents, leaves them in a dogfight for a double chance. Importantly for Leon Cameron’s exciting young side, it is home this week and next week against Fremantle before tackling the wounded Kangaroos.

West Coast haven’t travelled well all season and though the Giants were upset by Collingwood at Spotless Stadium last month, it has been a fortress for them this season. The return of Dylan Shiel boosts a midfield which is littered with top-end talent. Slot Shiel into an engine room boasting Josh Kelly, Callan Ward, Stephen Coniglio, Ryan Griffen, Tom Scully and Lachie Whitfield and it wouldn’t be a shock if the organised Eagles defence, led superbly by Andrew McGovern, have restless nights in the lead-up.

VERDICT: GWS by 29 points.

1st goal scorer: Jeremy Cameron

St Kilda v Sydney

Saturday, Etihad Stadium 5.25pm

There doesn’t appear to be a great deal between these two sides on current form and even less when you factor in Etihad Stadium where the Saints have been lethal for the bulk of 2016. However, the unknown when selecting a winner surrounds what occurs earlier in the day at the MCG. If Hawthorn beat North Melbourne, the Saints will know they can close to within four points and percentage of the Kangaroos with an upset victory.

The Swans will endeavour to control the stoppages with their bid-bodied and experienced midfield, while the dash and dare of Jack Steven and his fellow Saints on-ballers will look to capitalise on the hard and fast track that Etihad Stadium provides. The firepower in attack both teams possess is undeniable, but the ability of Sydney to throttle Port Adelaide last weekend is impossible to ignore. With a top-two spot in their sights, expect the Swans to answer a searching Saints challenge.

VERDICT: Sydney by 13 points.

1st goal scorer: Lance Franklin

Port Adelaide v Melbourne

Saturday, Adelaide Oval 5.40pm

Port Adelaide’s faint finals aspirations were savaged at the SCG last weekend and now they have little to play for but pride. They were faced with the same scenario 12 months ago and responded well. It is imperative they do so again to appease their loyal supporter base. Doing so against a Melbourne side brimming with confidence after taking down Hawthorn seven days earlier however, won’t be easy.

The manner in which ruckman Max Gawn performed when supplying Nathan Jones, Jack Viney and Dom Tyson, and marked strongly both in attack and defence, was stunning. A similar display against a Power side relying on Jackson Trengove to fill in the ruck role, will give the visitors hope of ending a seven-game losing streak against Port. The return of Jesse Hogan (knee) is another plus. Port will lean on Robbie Gray, Travis Boak, Brad Ebert, Chad Wingard and co. to be influential from the outset, but that might not be enough.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 4 points.

1st goal scorer: Jesse Hogan

Essendon v Gold Coast

Sunday, Etihad Stadium 11.10am

If Gold Coast bring an effort anywhere near what they produced against Greater Western Sydney last weekend, they win. It is as simple as that. The Suns were committed and disciplined from the outset and though they came up short, coach Rodney Eade was effusive in his praise. The following day, Essendon laboured to four goals in a 66-point loss to Geelong, a result compounded by a groin injury to Brendon Goddard that prevents him from fronting up against the Suns.

The Bombers are struggling to score and in-form Suns key defender Steven May could give Joe Daniher a torrid time. At the other end of the ground, Gold Coast’s milestone man Tom Lynch (100 games), Peter Wright and Sam Day will present major headaches for a Bombers defence that is gallant, but seriously undermanned. Aside from the four points, Gold Coast would love to see the late-season development of Callum Ah Chee and Jarrod Garlett continue.

VERDICT: Gold Coast by 26 points.

1st goal scorer: Tom Lynch

Richmond v Geelong

Sunday, MCG 1.20pm

No club does emotional wins better than Richmond. That much was evident last Friday night when they responded after a week of intense scrutiny following a horrid performance against Greater Western Sydney. How the Tigers back up that effort against a competent, but enigmatic Geelong outfit desperate to finish inside the top four will be intriguing.

The Cats butchered an opportunity to annihilate Essendon last weekend and cannot afford to waste the chances in front of goal when they present. Tom Hawkins will be opposed by dual All-Australian Alex Rance and therefore will find it harder to have as many gilt-edged opportunities as he enjoyed against the Bombers. Geelong love to direct their attacks through Hawkins, but don’t be surprised if they seek alternative avenues in an attempt to thwart the influence of Rance.

VERDICT: Geelong by 35 points.

1st goal scorer: Sam Lloyd

Fremantle v Adelaide

Sunday, Domain Stadium 2.40pm

Fremantle had their foot on the throats of West Coast during the second quarter, but failed to take their chances and were ultimately steamrolled to the tune of 46 points. It is doubtful whether a side as professional and classy as Adelaide will allow the Dockers such a start. And given the prize on offer for the Crows should they close out the regular season in the manner most expect, that spells bad news for Fremantle.

The Dockers’ defensive structure is a mess and their skill level exiting the back line bordering on comical. Adelaide’s potency and forward pressure is elite. With the forecast of fine weather, expect Taylor Walker, Josh Jenkins, Tom Lynch, Eddie Betts and Charlie Cameron to be licking their lips at the prospect of kicking a bag. The best the Dockers can hope for is not to be embarrassed.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 60 points.

1st goal scorer: Josh Jenkins

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